Pakistan dismissed claims made by the Biden administration regarding the development of ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States. However, geopolitical analysts argue that developing long-range weapons aligns with Islamabad's evolving security priorities as the US and India develop closer ties. 

Last week, the US announced sanctions on four entities allegedly contributing to the proliferation or delivery of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). These include the National Development Complex (NDC) in Islamabad and three Karachi-based companies: Affiliates International, Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, and Rockside Enterprise.

Pakistan condemned the move, stressing that its strategic capabilities are designed to "defend its sovereignty and preserve peace and stability in South Asia." It criticized the sanctions for exacerbating military imbalances in the region, stressing that they "defy the objective of peace and security by aiming to accentuate military asymmetries" and carry "dangerous implications for strategic stability of our region and beyond."

The US and Pakistan formed an unexpected but close partnership, primarily driven by American goals in Afghanistan during the Cold War and post 9/11. However, US frustrations have mounted over allegations of Pakistan's covert support for Taliban insurgents and, more recently, its deepening ties with China, which has invested billions in Pakistani infrastructure projects.

In contrast, the US and India have developed closer ties over the past decade, citing mutual concern over China's economic and military power. 

Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistan ambassador to the US and a scholar at the Hudson Institute think tank, said the developing global relations are prompting Pakistani hard-liners to think about the country's positioning - currently considered in partnership with China - in the event of a global conflict with India, which is backed by the US. 

Ashley J. Tellis, an Asian geopolitics expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, contends that Pakistan’s strategic goals have shifted from being solely "India-specific" to "India-plus." He partly attributes this change to the 2011 US military operation that killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan. Tellis believes Islamabad aims to develop capabilities to deter potential future US interventions on its land.  

Pakistani vs. Indian missile capabilities 

Meanwhile, India remained silent on the US decision to sanction Pakistani firms, sufficing by saying it keeps up "all developments which have a bearing on our security and our interest very closely."

The sanctions are unlikely to impact Pakistan’s missile programs, which focus on short- and mid-range weapons, though the Shaheen-III missile could theoretically target India’s distant territories, such as the far eastern Andamans and Nicobar archipelago.

Former Pakistani diplomat Zamir Akram highlighted that Pakistan’s pursuit of long-range missile technology is driven by both defensive needs and a desire to match India’s capabilities.

On the other hand, India's military priorities are increasingly centered on countering China.  

The Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile, with a range of 3,000 miles and high accuracy, brings major Chinese cities within striking distance. India and China have a longstanding border dispute in the Himalayas, which escalated into a deadly clash in 2020.  

Zamir Akram,  a former Pakistan diplomat at the United Nations, noted that such technology could also support the development of a domestic space-launch system. Currently, Pakistan depends on China for its satellite launches.

"We cannot foreclose the option for developing a long-range missile if needed sometime in the future," he said, adding the idea that such developments constitute a threat to the US is "ludicrous".

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