Poland is preparing to build a €2 billion anti-drone defense system along its eastern borders, citing growing security concerns linked to Russia’s military activity and hybrid operations in the region.

Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk said Warsaw expects the first operational elements of the system to be deployed within six months, with full completion planned within 24 months. Speaking to The Guardian in Warsaw, Tomczyk said the new infrastructure would be integrated into an existing line of border defenses constructed around a decade ago.

The system will involve multiple layers of protection, including machine guns, cannons, missile systems, and electronic drone-jamming capabilities. Tomczyk noted that some components, such as multi-barrel machine guns, would be reserved for extreme or wartime scenarios due to the risks associated with their use in peacetime.

Poland’s decision follows a series of incidents in September, when more than a dozen suspected Russian drones entered Polish airspace. The incursions led to temporary airport closures, fighter jets being scrambled, and damage to buildings after drones were shot down.

Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski described the incidents at the time as an attempt by Moscow “to test us without starting a war,” noting that the drones were unarmed.

While Polish officials acknowledge that no anti-drone system can offer complete protection against sustained and large-scale attacks of the kind witnessed in Ukraine, Tomczyk said countries along NATO’s eastern flank are accelerating efforts to adapt to what he described as a new security reality.

EU-backed funding and rising military spending

According to Tomczyk, the project will cost more than €2 billion and be largely financed through European mechanisms, including the SAFE (Security Action for Europe) defense loan programme, with additional funding from Poland’s state budget.

Poland has sharply increased its defense expenditure, allocating 4.7% of its GDP to military spending, one of the highest levels in the European Union, amid ongoing fears of Russian hybrid warfare, including alleged sabotage and arson operations, which Polish authorities link to Russian intelligence services.

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The anti-drone system forms part of a broader fortification strategy known as the “Eastern Shield”, which includes strengthening land borders with Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. Tomczyk said Poland plans to establish logistics hubs in every border municipality, allowing equipment to be rapidly deployed to block border crossings if needed.

As the war in Ukraine continues, Poland has accelerated its militarization, launching large-scale armament and training programmes, including plans to train hundreds of thousands of civilians in basic survival skills and significantly expand voluntary military training initiatives.

Europe’s security calculus

Tomczyk argued that as long as Ukraine continues to fight Russian forces, Europe is unlikely to face a full-scale conventional war, but warned that provocations and sabotage would persist. "If the west allowed Russia to win in Ukraine, it could be not long before the Kremlin set its sights on Europe,” he said, pointing to what he described as a long pattern of Russian expansionism in eastern Europe.

Poland’s mobilization comes amid a wider pattern of alleged drone incursions into European airspace, reported in countries including Germany, the United Kingdom, Belgium, and France. While European officials have repeatedly pointed to Russia as the source of these incidents, the accusations have so far been presented without publicly available evidence or independent verification.

To the dismay of European governments pouring weapons into Ukraine under the banner of countering a perceived Russian threat, at the cost of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives, a US-backed ceasefire initiative has quietly advanced, with Kiev signalling a readiness to halt fighting under defined political and security conditions.

Diplomatic activity has accelerated as reports indicate that a US-led peace framework, described as nearly complete, envisions a ceasefire alongside broader political arrangements, including mechanisms to address contested territories.

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