Vladimir Putin is heading into the upcoming Putin-Trump summit in Alaska confident that Russia holds the upper hand in the Russia-Ukraine war, according to Bloomberg. Moscow’s battlefield advances are expected to bolster its push for major territorial concessions in exchange for a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.

Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian defenses in eastern Donetsk, advancing toward Dobropillya and aiming to reach the road linking the town with the strategic city of Kramatorsk, according to the Deep State monitoring platform, which works with Ukraine’s Defense Ministry.

While gains remain limited, Russia is consolidating positions and seeking weak points to exploit ahead of Friday’s meeting with US President Donald Trump.

Military analyst Marina Miron of King’s College London said, as cited by Bloomberg, "Putin has much stronger cards to play than his opponents. The Russian army is on the offensive, and they are dictating the rules."

Battlefield advances in Donetsk and strategic goals

Ukraine has reported successes in Luhansk and Sumy but is facing mounting pressure in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned that Moscow may be redeploying as many as 30,000 experienced troops to frontline regions for a renewed offensive later this month.

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Since the start of the year, Russian forces have captured about 2,400 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, roughly 0.4% of the country, according to Bloomberg estimates based on Deep State mapping data.

Lieutenant Colonel Bogdan Krotevich, former chief of staff of the Azov Brigade, blasted the current Ukrainian military strategy, calling it a "complete mess" and warning of Ukrainian forces facing two future encirclements by Russian army personnel. 

"The systemic problem began with the elimination of reserves, the massive fragmentation of units along the entire front line, reports of the 'captured village' as a victory against the backdrop of failures in entire directions, the distribution of mobilization resources to "godfathers," as well as the absolute lack of strategic and even operational vision of the theater of operations among some of the military leadership," Krotevich wrote in a social media post directed at Zelensky.

Ceasefire talks and territorial demands

Putin has so far resisted Trump’s calls for a truce, insisting that Kiev must withdraw from Donetsk and Luhansk entirely before agreeing to any Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Reports also suggest US and Russian officials are discussing a deal that would freeze the war along current battle lines, leaving Russia in control of occupied areas in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Trump told reporters on Monday that “there may be some changes” to territorial lines, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said territory would “have to be on the table” in talks, a position rejected by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas.

Zelensky and European leaders plan a call with Trump before the summit, fearing Washington may concede too much in Alaska. Ukraine’s president stressed that no territory will be ceded, arguing that giving up the Donbas would create a “bridgehead for a future new offensive” by Russia.

Manpower shortages remain one of Ukraine’s most pressing challenges. Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute noted, “Ukraine does not have enough soldiers and infantry, and that’s clearly the most significant challenge.” Analysts warn that the war’s sustainability could be at risk if it extends into 2026.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War believes Russia’s push toward Dobropillya may be aimed at shaping perceptions ahead of the Putin-Trump summit, portraying further Russian territorial control as inevitable. Even without a deal, Putin could benefit from buying time to advance on the battlefield while persuading Trump to delay secondary tariffs.