Al Mayadeen English

  • Ar
  • Es
  • x
Al Mayadeen English

Slogan

  • News
    • Politics
    • Economy
    • Sports
    • Arts&Culture
    • Health
    • Miscellaneous
    • Technology
    • Environment
  • Articles
    • Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Blog
    • Features
  • Videos
    • NewsFeed
    • Video Features
    • Explainers
    • TV
    • Digital Series
  • Infographs
  • In Pictures
  • • LIVE
News
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Sports
  • Arts&Culture
  • Health
  • Miscellaneous
  • Technology
  • Environment
Articles
  • Opinion
  • Analysis
  • Blog
  • Features
Videos
  • NewsFeed
  • Video Features
  • Explainers
  • TV
  • Digital Series
Infographs
In Pictures
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Asia-Pacific
  • Europe
  • Latin America
  • MENA
  • Palestine
  • US & Canada
BREAKING
Russian Foreign Ministry: IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi must ensure that an objective report is presented at the special session of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Russian Foreign Ministry: The UN Security Council must respond to the US attacks on Iran
Russian Foreign Ministry: We strongly condemn the US strikes on Iran, calling the decision irresponsible
Iranian Red Crescent: Three personnel martyred, 29 injured in Israeli aggression
IRGC: We have identified and monitored the departure points of the US aircraft that carried out the aggression
IRGC: America has neither the initiative nor the ability to escape the consequences of a powerful response
IRGC: We strongly affirm that Iran's peaceful nuclear technology cannot be destroyed by any attack
Iran's IRGC: Washington has placed itself directly on the frontline of aggression by attacking peaceful facilities
Iran's IRGC: The number, scope, and size of US military bases in the region are not a point of strength, but rather a point of weakness
Tasnim News Agency: Iran's Fordow nuclear facility was only partially damaged by US strikes

RS: Testing Russian redlines means threatening US national security

  • By Al Mayadeen English
  • Source: Responsible Statecraft
  • 12 Jun 2023 15:45
  • 1 Shares
5 Min Read

The US has opted to test Russia's redlines in Ukraine, a decision that a new Responsible Statecraft report claims could lead to an unpredictable escalation that the US will not know of until it happens.

  • x
  • In this photo taken from video released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Wednesday, June 7, 2023, a Ukrainian military vehicle is hit during combat in Ukraine. (AP)
    In this photo taken from a video released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Wednesday, June 7, 2023, a Ukrainian military vehicle is hit during combat in Ukraine. (AP)

In a new report published on June 12, Responsible Statecraft (RS) highlights that the US might be pushing its chances in Ukraine, an endeavor that could result in a direct confrontation between Moscow and Washington that could devolve into nuclear war.

RS explained that US President Joe Biden and his administration have insisted on testing Russia's red lines through experimentation, a decision that could lead directly to "Armageddon" without prior mutual escalation.

According to the report, the US, through its continued escalation in the type of weaponry assistance it sent to Ukraine, "has grown increasingly confident that the Kremlin’s 'red lines' in Ukraine are not as sharply drawn as once feared."

After having established the US approach to experimentation regarding Russia's redlines, the report identified and discussed a fatal flaw: "A nation’s redlines – those that it will go to war to defend – are not always static." 

The decision to go to war is typically grounded in the current odds and fortunes on domestic and international levels. This meant, the report highlighted, what could be accepted by Russia today, could become "intolerable" given a different set of circumstances. 

RS warned that the US will likely discover it had gone too far "only after we find ourselves in a direct confrontation with Russia, not before."

Read more: Ukraine counteroffensive will bring no good to Kiev, US or NATO: Hersh

Another factor described by the report, that has and will continue to play a role in changing Russian odds to become more likely to launch a direct attack against the West, is Ukrainian military discipline. 

Recently, Ukraine has launched direct attacks against Moscow, be it through drone attacks or other means. While the US has been careful to avoid getting dragged into a direct war with Russia, Ukraine might, the report underscored, "believe that drawing Moscow into a clash with the US military is their best hope for victory."

As such, RS concluded that it is "unwise" for the US to bet on Ukrainian discipline as a premise for preventing direct escalation with Russia.

Related News

Spain rejects NATO's 'unreasonable' 5% defense spending proposal

Trump's NATO attendance in doubt as US escalates threats on Iran

Russian escalation scenario

According to the piece, in the event that Russia makes the decision to escalate, its primary go-to will not be tactical nuclear weapons.

The report defended that claim by arguing that Moscow's "geopolitical strategy depends heavily on courting China, India, Brazil and other non-Western actors" and any nuclear attack against another state will result in global condemnation and threaten the country's bilateral ties, even with what has been dubbed friendly nations.

However, RS also argued that Russia's option would also cause NATO and the US significant harm. In 2021, Russia proved capable of destroying orbiting satellites with a ground-based interceptor missile. In Ukraine, much of the war against Russia has been possible thanks to US "communications, reconnaissance, and guidance systems that are vulnerable to Russian attacks." 

Read more: Hersh: Majority of he world supports Russia in war in Ukraine

In that case, even if the US reciprocated Moscow’s attack with a similar one, it remained that Russian military capabilities are much less dependent on satellite communication.

The report also highlighted that the Kremlin's strategy in Ukraine has been "slowly grinding down Ukraine’s capacity for war has been designed to achieve victory without fighting NATO directly." The report reminded that these strategies could change based on domestic and international factors. If the Russian people grow impatient with Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, the Kremlin might need to escalate.

A decision that neither the US nor Russia could claim they know how it will unfold, said the report.

Crossing Russia's redlines means threatening US security

The most significant point the report attempted to make was: "Rather than probing to discover how much we can get away with in Ukraine, we should be focusing on what is vital for America’s national security."

In that regard, RS argued that the greatest US interest would be to ensure no escalation with Russia will occur rather than to test Moscow's redlines.

Similar to an argument made in April, also by RS, this report reaffirmed that a 'complete victory', which meant the "enabling Ukraine’s recapture of Crimea, prosecuting Russian leaders for war crimes, and enfeebling Russia’s military" could be considered theoretically appealing. However, attempting such a "victory" will "will inevitably increase the risks of escalation."

The report, lastly, urged the American people to "insist" the US to find an alternative to end the war in Ukraine before it escalated "beyond our [US] control."

Read more: RS: US-Ukrainian interests unaligned, could mean suicide for Ukraine

  • Nato
  • Russia
  • US
  • war in Ukraine
  • Nato Alliance
  • nuclear war
  • Ukraine
Russia & NATO

Russia & NATO

As the Draconian Western-led sanctions on Russia exacerbate the economic crisis worldwide, and as Russian troops gain more ground despite the influx of military aid into Ukraine, exposing US direct involvement in bio-labs spread across Eastern Europe and the insurgence of neo-Nazi groups… How will things unfold?

Most Read

Iran launches 9th wave of Op. True Promise 3, destroys IOF air defense

Iran launches 9th wave of Op. True Promise 3, destroys IOF air defense

  • MENA
  • 17 Jun 2025
Rescue team work at the site where a missile launched from Iran struck Tel Aviv, Israel, Monday, June 16, 2025 (AP)

Wave 12 of Operation True Promise 3 launched, Sejjil deployed: IRGC

  • Politics
  • 18 Jun 2025
Iran launches missile barrage to Tel Aviv, casualties reported

True Promise 3, wave 14: Tel Aviv targeted, casualties reported

  • Politics
  • 19 Jun 2025
Iran's heavy barrages impact multiple Israeli targets overnight

Iran's heavy barrages impact multiple Israeli targets overnight

  • Palestine
  • 18 Jun 2025

Coverage

All
The Ummah's Martyrs

Read Next

All
Iran’s Bavar-373 air defense system on display during a military drill (Mehr News Agency)
Politics

Iran intercepts Israeli drones near Tehran, multiple cities

The Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept missiles during an Iranian attack over Tel Aviv, Occupied Palestine, Sunday, June 15, 2025 (AP)
Politics

Iran warns aid to 'Israel' will be treated as aggression

US President Donald Trump arrives to board Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Friday, June 20, 2025, en route to Montclair, New Jersey (AP)
Politics

Trump, Erdogan made covert attempts to hold talks with Iran: Axios

Ansar Allah supporters surround a giant Iranian flag during an anti-US and anti-'Israel' weekly rally in Sanaa, Yemen, Friday, June 20, 2025 (AP)
Politics

US ships in Red Sea will be targeted if US attacks Iran: YAF

Al Mayadeen English

Al Mayadeen is an Arab Independent Media Satellite Channel.

All Rights Reserved

  • x
  • Privacy Policy
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Authors
Android
iOS