Russia could take Kharkov 'within months', Newsweek says
4 Min Read
It is expected that Russia will have taken Kharkov within months as the flow of munitions and aid from the West slows down.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy inspects the fortification lines in Kharkov, on April 9, 2024 (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)
Ukraine now fears that its second-largest city, the highly strategic city of Kharkov, just miles from the Russian border, could be taken by Russia soon.
Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the German newspaper Bild: "Kharkov is one of the capitals of Ukraine, so it has a great symbolic meaning".
Ukraine, he said, is "doing everything we can" to prevent Russia from taking it.
Jacob Parakilas, a research leader for defense strategy, policy, and capabilities with the European branch of the RAND think tank, explained that even with aid flow to Ukraine stemmed "a successful assault on Kharkov would be a major undertaking for Russia, but not completely out of the question."
He revealed to Newsweek that a "slow, grinding attack" could indicate Russia's ability to take the city within "months".
Parakilas clarified that Kharkov's position near the border makes it easier for Russia to station its forces better.
Colonel Andriy Zadubinnyi, a press officer with Ukraine's Khortytsia grouping of troops operating in northeastern Ukraine, told Newsweek: "In the event of an offensive, will the Ukrainian defense forces be able to defend Kharkov without US military assistance? We can!"
"But it will be at the cost of tens of thousands of lives of Ukrainian soldiers," with more equipment and personnel, he said, noting: "Without American help we will have a hard time... But we have no choice. We have to stand to the death."
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Danger on the forefront
"The Russian military can afford to take more losses for longer than the Ukrainians can," Parakilas said, noting that Ukraine's military has been struggling with refilling the ranks of the Ukrainian armed forces, especially after Zelensky approved plunging the conscription age from 27 to 25.
With Zelensky claiming that "Russia is preparing to mobilize an additional 300,000 military personnel on June 1", the head of the US European Command, General Christopher Cavoli, revealed to American lawmakers last week that Russia's army was 15% bigger than it was in February 2022 when the war first started.
As Russia is also at the battlefront in the Donetsk region, it remains unclear whether it will prioritize Kharkov. Zadubinnyi said: "The main efforts of Russian killers are concentrated in Donbas... However, we cannot rule out any options."
"Due to its proximity to the border, Kharkov region is under regular Russian fire almost every day," Zadubinnyi continued. "The city of Kharkov itself is shelled by the Russian Federation using guided aerial bombs and missiles of various types."
Last week, Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky revealed that "The situation on the eastern front has deteriorated significantly in recent days", noting that Russia is in possession of superior weapons.
The situation around the eastern front city of Chasiv Yar is "difficult and tense" as it is under "constant fire"; the city is located 20 kilometers west of Bakhmut.
"If they keep hitting [Ukraine] every day the way they have for the last month, we might run out of missiles, and the partners know it," Zelensky said on Ukrainian television. He said that Ukraine had enough air defense stockpiles to cope for the moment, adding that it was already having to make difficult choices about what to protect.
