Russian gas will not be replaced, EU made huge mistake - Former US colonel

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Former US colonel and Eurasia Center Vice President, Earl Rasmussen, said that the European Union's latest sanctions and economic retaliation against Russia will backfire and cause a massive recession in Europe. 

The EU has banned Russian Central Bank transactions as part of their sanctions, closed European airspace to Russian aircraft, and is working to exclude Russia from the international transaction system SWIFT. 

Read more: Why cutting Russia from SWIFT is bad for the West

 

The European sanctions, as described by European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, are the largest sanctions package" in EU history, admittingly saying that they will "come at the cost of our economy too."

Rasmussen, who previously said that US troop deployment to Ukraine deters efforts to solve the conflict, said that the European sanctions against Russia will throw Europe into a "historical recession."

British Petroleum will also be dumping its stake in Rosneft, a Russian petroleum company. Dutch oil company Shell also said that it will be backing out of joint ventures with Gazprom and Gazprom Neft, including the Sakhalin II project while also canceling its involvement in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Nord Stream 2 has recently had its license revoked by Germany. 

Rasmussen warned that the decision by Berlin, strongly pressured by the Biden administration, will send energy costs spiraling wildly out of control not just in Germany but in surrounding nations too.

"Energy markets will peak. My colleagues in Europe tell me that prices are already up 30%. They will go much higher, perhaps twice as high, maybe more," he said.

Read more: US, EU sanctions on Russia impact gas, oil, currency & more

 

Rasmussen stated that despite repeated assurances from Biden, Washington is in no condition to replace Russia’s plentiful and cheap supplies of natural gas to Europe with any alternative energy supply that is remotely comparable in either scale or cost.

"How will Europe replace Russia’s gas? It will not! Welcome global austerity!" he said, noting that Russia is one of the world's largest gas exporters with larges reserves. 

"EU leaders have made a huge mistake. Russian gas will not be replaced - impossible. Also, the gas [to be] replaced will be significantly more expensive, perhaps two to four times more expensive," he said.

The consequences of the sanctions implemented by the EU and US will be felt in both regions, according to the former US colonel, noting that tough times are ahead.

"We will be facing dire times ahead: Hopefully not a full-scale war which could go nuclear very rapidly but a significant global economic crisis regardless," he said.

Washington's central role in the global economy will be significantly reduced in the long term, inevitably, explains Rasmussen: "Even if we make it through, the economic system has been severely shaken by the arrogance of the United States, and the European powers which will shift more rapidly away from the dollar as a trading/currency reserve."

"Ukraine, Europe, and to some degree Russia will be challenged as well as the United States. China will likely gain the most," he added.

He went on to comment on the global blitz on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, saying that such decisions to block the Russian megaproject may lead to chaos in US and European economies as well as societies on every level - after all, it is energy.

"Energy is essential: It impacts industrial production directly as well as the consumer. I am not sure when they will be able to recover," he explained.

Washington will not be immune to the aftermath of these steps, which are destructive economic forces. 

"Russia is one of the largest gas and oil producers. The magnitude of their reserves and export capacity is nearly impossible to replace and a replacement will be significantly more expensive," he concluded.