S. Korea could take over Europe’s tank market: Foreign Policy

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Foreign Policy
31 Jan 2023 14:49

It appears that Germany has abandoned its defense partners in search of alternatives, such as South Korea.

Polish army soldiers stand in front of South Korean tanks at the Baltic Container Terminal in Gdynia, Poland, on Dec. 6, 2022. (AFP)

Foreign Policy wrote on Monday that Germany remains Ukraine's fourth-largest defense donor, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz's dithering over the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks, Europe's standard main battle tank, continues to dominate headlines even after his government agreed to send them.

Refusing to relent after a period of procrastination has only made the German government appear indecisive and unwilling to lead, even in matters of European security, according to the Foreign Policy.

While Germany has long been a defense acquisition partner for its European neighbors, this incident has shaken their confidence, giving the impression that Berlin's confused defense policy and weak leadership are strategic liabilities, and encouraging them to seek defense hardware elsewhere.

The report suggests that after witnessing the last few weeks of nonsense, Leopard 2 operators, particularly those in the face of Russia, are questioning the wisdom of relying on Berlin for a key component of their ground forces.

The Franco-German plan to develop a replacement for both the French Leclerc main battle tank and the German Leopard 2 appears doomed to be stifled by bureaucratic inertia, rendering their planned Main Ground Combat System an unappealing prospect to hang nations' future force structures on. However, there are no other hot European tank production lines in Europe, leaving Leopard tank variants as the only option.

What are the K2 main battle tanks?

The report introduces another tank production line that is being planned in Europe. Hyundai Rotem and Hanwha Defense of South Korea won massive arms contracts with Poland in 2022, including a deal for 1,000 K2 main battle tanks and 672 K9 self-propelled howitzers.

180 of the total number of tanks will be built in South Korea between 2022 and 2025, with domestic production capability for the remaining 820 coming online in Poland by 2026, according to Foreign Policy.

These will be built to Polish specifications under the designation K2PL, with the first 180 tanks being upgraded to K2PL standards later on. The Korean deal meant getting tanks much faster than Germany's Rheinmetall could, and at a competitive price, but it also fulfilled Polish desires for technology transfer to strengthen its own domestic defense industry.

South Korea is no stranger to the push for indigenization, having launched the XK2 program in 1995 in an effort to distance the Korean tank program from US-derived platforms, according to the report. The design reached the prototype stage in 2007, and South Korea signed a contract for its first K2 tanks in 2014, after completing rigorous trials and evaluations.

While some have dismissed the K2 as a less sophisticated Leopard 2 clone, it is still a world-class main battle tank with capabilities that are generally comparable to the European-produced best tanks. In fact, it has performed admirably in trials against the Leopard 2.

However, Poland is not alone. Turkey's Altay main battle tank is a K2 derivative, and countries such as Slovakia are in talks with South Korea about replacing their vintage T-72 tanks, according to Foreign Policy. Given that many of Eastern Europe's obsolete Soviet-era tanks have already been sent to Ukraine, K2-based designs could be a good fit for a number of states looking to upgrade and diversify their defense relationships.

Norway also had the K2 on its shortlist, evaluating it against the Leopard 2A7, before the Norwegian chief of defense’s recommendation last year to do away with the main battle tanks in the Norwegian military. While that question remains unresolved, Norway has joined Poland in ordering 28 K9 self-propelled howitzers from Hanwha Defense as part of a $180 million contract, adding to the ranks of other European states such as Finland and Estonia in adopting the Korean artillery system, according to the report.

However, the entirety of Europe is unlikely to immediately pivot to buying tanks from South Korea, and there are potential pitfalls. One of the most important is South Korea’s own sensitivities regarding Russia, the report states.

How does the US benefit?

Foreign Policy wrote that encouraging South Korea to aggressively pursue increasing its defense market share in Europe may provide indirect benefits to the US.

As a treaty ally, the United States is interested in ensuring a vibrant and robust South Korean defense industry capable of producing the types of modern weapons required to 'counter North Korean aggression', according to Foreign Policy.

By linking South Korea's heavy industry to European security, the United States creates a useful link between its allies and interests in both theaters. Polish troops, for example, will train alongside South Korean troops in both countries.

According to Foreign Policy, as the war in Ukraine intensifies and the US and its allies recall the startling rate at which industrial-scale warfare depletes equipment and ammunition, it makes sense to establish commercial relationships now that can quickly address shortfalls in critical areas.

Berlin's fear of a Russian retaliation affected European decision-making on the issue of the tanks, thus, more states may choose to follow Poland's lead in forging new extra-regional defense relationships with states that provide the operational flexibility they require while also strengthening their own domestic economies, according to Foreign Policy.

That said, the report adds that with successive South Korean presidents emphasizing the country's desire to become a power player in defense exports—including current President Yoon Suk-yeol's announcement that he wants South Korea to be the fourth-largest defense exporter by 2027—South Korea may be well positioned to seize more of Europe's business.