• Soldiers stand at their outpost near Nzara, South Sudan, on Saturday, February 15, 2025. (AP)

South Sudan is on the brink of a return to full-scale civil war, with violence intensifying and political tensions rising, according to the head of the UN Mission in the country (UNMISS), Nicholas Haysom, who issued a warning on Monday.

Speaking to journalists via video link from Juba, Haysom detailed indiscriminate attacks on civilians, mass displacement, and growing ethnic tensions. He called on all parties to commit to peace to avoid plunging the nation into another devastating conflict.

“A conflict would erase all the hard-won gains made since the 2018 peace deal was signed. It would devastate not only South Sudan but the entire region, which simply cannot afford another war,” he warned.

South Sudan, which gained independence from Sudan in 2011, has faced persistent instability and conflict. A civil war broke out in 2013 between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and those aligned with his former deputy, Riek Machar, marked by ethnic violence, mass atrocities, and a widespread humanitarian crisis. The war lasted until a fragile peace agreement was signed in 2018.

While the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement brought some stability, implementation delays and ongoing political rivalries have kept tensions high.

White Army

According to the UN, the latest violence began on March 4 when the White Army, a militia group accused by the government of collaborating with Machar, attacked South Sudanese army barracks in Nasir, Upper Nile province. In response, government forces launched aerial bombardments on civilian areas, using barrel bombs filled with highly flammable accelerants, it added.

“These indiscriminate attacks on civilians are causing significant casualties and horrific injuries, especially burns, including to women and children,” Haysom emphasized, adding that at least 63,000 people have fled the area.

Reports indicate that both the White Army and national forces are preparing for further clashes, with allegations of child recruitment into armed groups. The deployment of foreign forces at the government's request has further escalated tensions, recalling painful memories of the country’s past civil wars.

Political tensions are also on the rise, Haysom noted. Senior officials from the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), the main rival militia, have been removed, detained, or forced into hiding. Misinformation, disinformation, and hate speech are increasingly stoking ethnic divisions and fear, making reconciliation more difficult.

“Given this grim situation, we are left with no other conclusion, but to assess that South Sudan is teetering on the edge of a relapse into civil war,” Haysom warned.

UNMISS diplomatic efforts

He mentioned that UNMISS, along with regional and international partners, including the African Union (AU), IGAD, and the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission, has engaged in intensive diplomatic efforts. However, a high-level visit by IGAD foreign ministers to Juba, meant to mediate between the parties, was postponed by the South Sudanese government without explanation.

“This is a disappointing development at a time when diplomatic outreach is more important than ever,” Haysom indicated.

Haysom urged South Sudan’s leaders to urgently recommit to the 2018 peace deal, respect the ceasefire, release detained officials, and resolve disputes through dialogue rather than military means.

He also called for Kiir and Machar to meet and publicly reaffirm their commitment to peace, warning that "the time for action is now because the alternative is too terrible to contemplate."

Opposition military base bombed

In a related development, the South Sudan opposition reported that one of its military bases near the capital, Juba, was bombed late Monday, as Washington expressed deep concern over the escalating violence between the rival factions.

Late Monday, Machar's party, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition, announced that its cantonment at Wunaliet, about 15 kilometers (9 miles) from Juba, had been attacked. "This provocative action is a violation of the (2018 peace agreement)," a party spokesperson said.

Earlier in the day, Lul Ruai Koang, a spokesperson for the Kiir-aligned army, warned that Machar’s forces were "scaling up their movements" and sending out patrols "in military formation" toward army positions.

Local media reported the attack involved "heavy shelling", although the army had not confirmed the strikes at the time.

South Sudan is also facing a rising tide of political conflict. Kiir has recently sidelined Machar, replacing allies of the latter in key positions, such as the governor of Upper Nile State. Machar’s party says that 22 of its political and military members have been detained since February, including Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol and Deputy Army Chief General Gabriel Duop Lam.

The United States State Department issued a statement on Monday urging Kiir and Machar to engage in direct dialogue to de-escalate the violence.

"Non-state militia attacks, govt-backed airstrikes, and promotion of sanctioned officials to high office are deeply concerning," it said in a statement on X.

South Sudan is also facing one of the world's worst cholera outbreaks since its independence, with almost 700 deaths in six months, including many children, according to UNICEF.

First VP accuses Uganda of violating UN arms embargo

Moreover, South Sudan's First Vice President, Riek Machar, has accused Uganda of violating a United Nations arms embargo by deploying armored and air force units into the country and conducting airstrikes.  

In a letter addressed to the UN, the African Union, and the IGAD regional bloc, Machar stated that Uganda's military intervention in South Sudan contravenes the 2018 peace agreement that ended a brutal five-year civil war.  

Uganda acknowledged earlier this month that it had deployed troops to South Sudan at the request of the government, following a deterioration in the already fragile relationship between Machar and President Salva Kiir.  

Despite fighting alongside the White Army against Kiir’s forces during the 2013–2018 conflict, Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) has denied any ongoing affiliation with the group.  

Uganda, meanwhile, fears that an all-out conflict in its oil-producing northern neighbor could trigger mass displacement, sending waves of refugees across its border and potentially destabilizing the region.  

“The Ugandan forces are currently taking part in airstrikes against civilians,” Machar wrote in his March 23 letter, calling for international pressure on Uganda to withdraw its troops.  

Last week, Uganda’s parliament retroactively approved the troop deployment, initially announced on March 11.  

Ugandan Defense Minister Jacob Markson Oboth defended the move, stating that it aimed “to avoid a security catastrophe” in Africa’s youngest nation.  

Meanwhile, Uganda’s military chief, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, made inflammatory remarks in a series of since-deleted posts on X early Sunday, writing, “I’m tired of killing Nuer,” referring to Machar’s ethnic group.  

He went on to say, "Tell your leader Riek Machar to come and kneel down before 'our' President H.E Salva Kiir," in a statement that has fueled further diplomatic tensions in the region.

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