Sudan's neighbors' worst nightmare is playing out, as over three weeks of fighting are burning the country of 49 million people. They are watching closely, and they don’t like what they see. Scenarios open up a wide range of possibilities amid fears that the escalating clashes will likely transcend Sudan's borders and inflame conflicts within its neighbors' territories. 

Geostrategic importance

The African country shares borders with seven nations — Egypt, South Sudan, Chad, the Central African Republic (CAR), Libya, Ethiopia, and Eritrea-- which have already had their share of warfare, sedition, or political crises in the past few years.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently warned that a "catastrophic conflagration" of the conflict "could engulf the whole region and beyond" as expectations for a quick resolution dwindle with each breached cease-fire.

Meanwhile, European Commissioner for Crisis Management, Janez Lenarcic, said as quoted by the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag that there is a risk that the crisis in Sudan can spill over to other countries in the region.

He warned that there are very fragile countries among Sudan's neighbors and that the repercussions of the clashes spreading would be catastrophic.

Earlier, Sudan’s ousted Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok stated that the conflict in Sudan could turn into one of the world's worst civil wars if it is not put to a stop early on.

Hamdok explained that the ongoing conflict is a “senseless war” between two armies, given that “there is nobody who is going to come out of this victorious. That is why it has to stop.”

Sudan has sunk into chaos since the clashes erupted on April 15 between the forces of rival generals General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan (Sudanese Armed Forces) and Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (Rapid Support Forces - RSF), following weeks of heightened tensions over a power-sharing agreement.

More than 530 people have died in the violence, and tens of thousands of people have been scrambling to flee their homeland, as per the Sudanese Health Ministry. Some have managed to secure coveted seats on lifeboats and emergency airlifts across the Red Sea. But the majority are forced to find safety on their own.

Here’s why the fighting in Sudan sends shockwaves across the region

From seven sides, neighboring nations closely monitor the spillover risk, mainly due to Sudan's unique geostrategic significance, its size, and its location at the confluence of the Indian Ocean, the Horn of Africa, North Africa, the Red Sea, and the Arab world. 

“What happens in Sudan will unquestionably impact neighboring countries."

 

-Ayman Al Qassem Ahmad Abed Al-Aziz

 Expert in Arab Intellect Affairs

An Expert in Arab Intellect Affairs Ayman Al Qassem Ahmad Abed Al-Aziz told Al Mayadeen English that there are no natural borders separating Sudan from its neighbors, and there exists a remarkable ethnic, cultural, and linguistic overlap between the populations of western Sudan, Darfur, eastern Sudan, Eritrea, and Ethiopia.

Concurrently, Chad and South Sudan immediately emerge as being at risk of a potential spillover, and as the fighting escalates, it is more likely that the conflict will spill over to other neighboring countries and beyond, he further argued.

In the north, Egypt looks to Sudan as a safety net against political unrest and as a partner in local water disputes.

Egypt and Sudan rely on the Nile River, which originates in Ethiopia. the two water-stressed countries have always considered the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam a threat to their access to water, and any disagreements between Cairo and Khartoum could imperil efforts to strike a water-sharing arrangement with Addis Ababa.

Sudanese writer Mohamamd Al Mahjoub told Al Mayadeen English that Sudan's frontiers with Egypt have a long history of stability. However, in recent years, with the "gold rush" looming, some troubles have come to pass, starting with illegal mining, contrabands, and human trafficking, among other issues.

The main activity between the two neighboring countries is commerce, underdeveloped but continuous, he added.

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"With raw materials and vegetables as the main goods crossing from the Sudanese part to the Egyptian side, on the other hand, we have: consumer goods, household, medical supplies ...etc entering Sudan from the Egyptian part," he further stressed.

On Sudan’s opposite side, thousands of predominantly South Sudanese refugees have recently started pouring across the 1,200-mile border to go back to their home country amid the infighting.

South Sudan gained its independence in 2011 but slid two years later into a civil war that left nearly 400,000 dead.

Despite the signing of a peace agreement in 2018, sporadic bursts of violence continued between the government and opposition forces, in addition to conflicts between ethnic groups in the country, which caused heavy casualties among civilians.

South Sudan, one of the world's poorest nations, is ill-prepared to take in foreigners or returning refugees from Sudan. According to Marie-Helene Verney, the country's representative for the UN refugee agency, there are over 12 million people living in South Sudan, 2 million of whom are internally displaced, and 75% of them depend on humanitarian help. In other countries in the region, there are about 2.3 million South Sudanese refugees.

The recent surge in the number of Sudanese and South Sudanese returning from exile runs the potential to reignite violence and struggle over the few resources in the fledgling country. In 2011, primarily African and Christian or animist South Sudan declared its independence from the Arab and Muslim-majority Sudan, putting an end to decades of civil violence. But in 2013, a new civil war in South Sudan broke out, this time spurred by unresolved ethnic conflicts and quarreling political leaders.

A crisis that will cross borders

On Sudan’s western side, the UN predicted that over 100,000 people would flee Sudan to Chad, which already hosts more than half a million refugees, with aid agencies warning that larger flows of refugees are estimated to arrive. In the past few days, an estimated 10,000 to 20,000 people have fled Sudan's Darfur region to seek refuge in neighboring Chad, as per the UN.

About 400,000 Sudanese refugees from earlier conflicts were already living in border camps in Chad.

Political instability in Chad may be further enflamed by the fighting in Sudan and the resulting power void. The Janjaweed, a conglomeration of Arab tribal militant groups active in Darfur and parts of Chad, and the RSF, have a bloody history in Chad.

Under Al-Bashir's command, the Janjaweed intimidated Sudan's Darfur area and carried out cross-border assaults on Sudanese refugees in Chad in the 2000s. N'Djamena accused Khartoum of aiding militants in Chad.

Chad also worries about being entangled in proxy and regional battles. The Central African Republic, a former French colony southwest of Sudan, has suffered for years from sectarian conflict, mismanagement, and uprisings. According to the United Nations, armed groups and militias effectively rule the nation, where 50% of the population lacks access to enough food and clean water. Price increases have already been a result of the turmoil.

Ethiopia, which borders Sudan to the southeast, is perturbed about how the violence would impact two of its top priorities: securing water rights for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and resolving Ethiopian claims to a contentious border region where fighting has previously broken out.

Abed Al-Aziz warned that the flames in the wider Horn of Africa might add fuel to the ongoing fighting in Sudan, thus leading to a wider conflict.

Tens of thousands of Ethiopians from the Tigray region have also sought sanctuary in Sudan. Their two-year battle with the national government ended in a fragile peace agreement late last year, and it now threatens to erupt once more.

Shifts in the region’s balance of power could also disturb neighboring Eritrea’s weak alliances.

Many Eritreans escaping their government's compulsory conscription fled to Sudan, which welcomed thousands of refugees and asylum seekers from its eastern neighbor. In Ethiopia's recent conflict with Tigray militants, Eritrea backed Ethiopia. The two nations had just recently put an end to a protracted cold war.

For just a minute, let us put aside all the round negotiation tables, the collared delegations, their eloquent press conferences, the condemnation statements, and politicized UN resolutions.

Sudan, just like many other African countries, is already suffering from the grip of systemic poverty, and limited tangible opportunities, under the death grip of the IMF and other global hegemonic bodies.

The crisis today is not a noncontextual event, but rather the direct result of decades of direct Western intervention, colonialism, resource theft, and internal meddling.

One thing is crystal clear: Sudan's future is intricately linked to its need to give less weight to its broader geopolitical landscape and instead focus on internal Sudanese dialogue. This will suit Sudan just fine. Other options will suit the West.