A report by Chatham House on Thursday detailed the rise of secessionist sentiments among Republicans, noting that the upcoming election is unlikely to solve the matter.

According to the report, the US is experiencing heightened division along ideological and political lines, sparking discussions of a potential civil war amid the lead-up to the 2024 elections.

"An increasingly Balkanized US is likely to be even more inward-looking, preoccupied with internal divisions over immigration, race, inequality, and sexual and gender identity issues," the report says, noting that such divisions jeopardize longstanding security and economic alliances.

Citing results from a recent poll conducted by YouGov, about 54% of strong Republicans believe it is very or somewhat likely that there will be a civil war in the US within the next decade. Similarly, four in ten (40%) strong Democrats share this belief.

Calls for a 'national divorce'

Marjorie Taylor Greene, a right-wing Republican from Georgia, has advocated for a 'national divorce', suggesting a separation of states based on political affiliations.

The sentiment resonated with a significant portion of the population, as evidenced by a survey showing that 23% of Americans support their state seceding from the Union.

This division mirrors the political landscape observed in the 2020 election, where states voting for Joe Biden (blue) stood in contrast to those voting for Donald Trump (red), reminiscent of the split during the Civil War. The divide between these two Americas extends beyond elections and is reflected in various contentious social issues.

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States with restrictive abortion laws, permissive gun laws, voter restriction laws, and legislation regarding gender-affirming care and LGBTQ issues largely align with Trump-supporting states, many of which were part of the Confederacy.

Furthermore, this divide has led to a constitutional clash over immigration. Texas, embroiled in a standoff with the federal government, defied a Supreme Court order to remove razor wire along the Rio Grande, justifying its actions by alleging that President Biden's immigration policies breached the compact between states and the federal government. 

The US constitution: a mere compact

Texas Governor Greg Abbott's implication that states can disregard the US Constitution echoes the Confederacy's argument for secession in 1861. This sentiment is compounded by the widening gap in public opinion and voting trends between rural and urban areas. 

As American society becomes increasingly polarized, stark divisions emerge across various facets of public opinion and political preferences.

A notable contrast exists between urban and rural areas, with nearly two-thirds (64%) of urban Americans viewing immigration as beneficial to society, while a majority (57%) of rural Americans perceive it as a threat to traditional values. Similarly, while 70% of urban Americans advocate for increased government intervention to solve problems, only half (49%) of rural Americans support such measures, preferring greater autonomy for businesses and individuals.

These divisions are also reflected in voting patterns, with urbanized states largely leaning towards one political direction, while less urbanized states exhibit a more mixed landscape. Among the half dozen most urbanized states, only one voted for Trump, while four of the least urbanized states did so. Some urbanized states were also found to be part of the Confederacy.

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Moreover, the partisan divide extends beyond domestic issues to international affairs. For instance, 70% of Republicans who support Trump believe that Ukraine aid has not been worth the cost, compared to 69% of Democrats who support it. Similarly, on the war on Gaza, six in ten (61%) liberal Democrats believe "Israel" has gone too far in its military operations, whereas only 8% of conservative Republicans agree.

Looking ahead, projections for the 2024 presidential election hint at a continuation of these divisions.

Biden is predicted to secure 226 out of the necessary 270 electoral votes, with the majority (116) coming from former Union states, while Trump is projected to have 235 votes, with a majority (135) from former Confederate states.