Tehran emerges stronger as Netanyahu’s Iran war backfires: FP

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Foreign Policy
1 Jul 2025 15:25
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Iran’s swift retaliation, national unity, and preserved nuclear capacity turned Netanyahu’s war into a strategic miscalculation for "Israel".

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An Iranian man punches through a representation of the Israeli flag in downtown Tehran, on June 24, 2025. (AP)

In a scathing analysis of the recent 12-day Israeli war on Iran published by Foreign Policy (FP) on Tuesday, a senior nonresident fellow at the Center for International Policy, Sina Toossi, argues that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's high-stakes offensive not only failed to achieve its strategic aims but also significantly undermined “Israel’s” long-term deterrence. The war ended swiftly, leaving behind no decisive victory.

The operation began with a wave of covert actions, decades of intelligence work culminating in drones assembled inside Iran, sleeper cells launching bombings, and high-profile assassinations. These were soon followed by a series of conventional airstrikes on military and nuclear sites, including Natanz and Fordow. But as Toossi notes, the campaign extended far beyond strategic targets: residential areas, prisons, media offices, and police stations were also struck, indicating a broader attempt to incite chaos and unrest.

According to the FP, the human cost was staggering. At least 610 Iranians were killed, including 49 women, 13 children, and five healthcare workers, with nearly 5,000 more injured. Medical facilities and emergency services were also hit. In response, Iranian missile and drone strikes on "Israel” killed at least 28 settlers, injured over 3,200, and displaced more than 9,000. Public infrastructure and buildings sustained extensive damage.

War on Iran fell far short of its objectives

Despite Netanyahu’s declared intention to cripple Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities, Toossi argues the campaign fell far short of its objectives. Iran’s retaliation was swift and calculated, targeting Israeli settlements and strategic assets, reported FP. After the United States joined by bombing Iranian nuclear sites, Tehran escalated further, striking the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, a move that drew Washington deeper into the war.

Just 12 days after “Israel’s” initial strikes, a cease-fire was reached under undisclosed terms, leaving the regional balance precariously unresolved.

While “Israel” managed to inflict tactical damage on Iranian command and scientific infrastructure, Toossi stresses that strategic outcomes are what truly matter, and by that measure, the war was a failure.

Iran’s nuclear infrastructure appears largely intact. Intelligence reports suggest sensitive materials may have been moved ahead of the attacks. Moreover, Iran had already initiated construction of a fortified, undisclosed enrichment facility, possibly untouched.

The aftermath of attacking Iran's nuclear facilities

In a critical shift, Iran’s parliament passed a bill to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency just days after the cease-fire. One Iranian lawmaker stated, “Why was our nuclear facility attacked, and you remained silent? Why did you give the green light for these actions?”

As Toossi warns, by attacking nuclear sites while demanding oversight, the US and “Israel” may have inadvertently legitimized the pursuit of a nuclear deterrent.

The FP argues that its ballistic arsenal successfully pierced both Israeli and US air defenses, targeting refineries, military bases, and research centers. Though censorship in “Israel” limited public data, over 41,000 compensation claims were reportedly filed due to war damage. Meanwhile, “Israel” expended an estimated $500 million worth of US-supplied THAAD missile interceptors.

A ceasefire was necessary to 'save Israel'

Economic disruption was also severe. Ben Gurion Airport was shut down, financial activity slowed, and capital outflows surged. Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon bluntly stated that the ceasefire was necessary to “save Israel,” while Donald Trump admitted that “Israel” had been hit “very hard.”

In a revealing statement, Trump also announced that China would be permitted to buy Iranian oil to help Iran “get back into shape.”

That said, Toossi highlights how Iran’s retaliatory strategy was calibrated and symbolic. After an Israeli drone strike on an Iranian refinery, Iran responded by hitting a refinery in Haifa. After "Israel" attacked suspected nuclear research centers, Iran struck the Weizmann Institute of Science near Tel Aviv, long believed to be part of “Israel’s” nuclear research apparatus. These strikes demonstrated Tehran’s capacity for restrained but potent retaliation.

On the domestic front, instead of sparking internal collapse, the war triggered a surge of national unity across Iran. As Toossi observes, the strikes unified a polarized society in resistance to foreign aggression. Civil society, from Gen Z activists to artists and athletes, mobilized in solidarity. Citizens opened their homes to the displaced, and the indiscriminate loss of civilian life only deepened collective resilience.

Crucially, this war erupted just as Iran was re-engaging in nuclear negotiations with the Trump administration. Many Iranians had pinned hopes on the election of reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian and his promise of diplomacy and economic reform. Instead, they watched their country being bombed during peace efforts.

Netanyahu’s war boosts Iran’s unity and deterrence

Toossi contends that the long-standing belief in Washington that Iran’s government is one blow away from collapse has now been discredited. Far from eliminating the threat posed by Iran, Netanyahu’s war has exposed “Israel’s” vulnerabilities and rallied Iranian nationalism, the author stressed.

In a paradoxical outcome, the war may enhance Iran’s diplomatic leverage. Trump and his envoy Steve Witkoff continue to insist that Tehran must abandon uranium enrichment, yet Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, have reaffirmed: “Iran will never give up this right.” Meanwhile, Trump has floated lifting sanctions and allowing Chinese oil purchases as part of “great progress” toward de-escalation.