Al Mayadeen English

  • Ar
  • Es
  • x
Al Mayadeen English

Slogan

  • News
    • Politics
    • Economy
    • Sports
    • Arts&Culture
    • Health
    • Miscellaneous
    • Technology
    • Environment
  • Articles
    • Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Blog
    • Features
  • Videos
    • NewsFeed
    • Video Features
    • Explainers
    • TV
    • Digital Series
  • Infographs
  • In Pictures
  • • LIVE
News
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Sports
  • Arts&Culture
  • Health
  • Miscellaneous
  • Technology
  • Environment
Articles
  • Opinion
  • Analysis
  • Blog
  • Features
Videos
  • NewsFeed
  • Video Features
  • Explainers
  • TV
  • Digital Series
Infographs
In Pictures
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Asia-Pacific
  • Europe
  • Latin America
  • MENA
  • Palestine
  • US & Canada
BREAKING
Russian agency: Russia will conduct a nuclear test if the US does
Al-Nakhalah: We are the rightful owners, and we must fight to retrieve our rights
Al-Nakhalah: The enemy and its allies must know that we can never surrender to their terms and diktats after all the sacrifices made
Al-Nakhalah: The prisoner exchange clause can be completed in the next few days, and thus we will have pulled the [explosion] fuse and removed the enemy's justifications for aggression
Al-Nakhalah: The Resistance has expressed its willingness to negotiate on the basis that there are items that can be dealt with positively, the first of which is the prisoner exchange item
Al-Nakhalah: Trump's plan entails the Palestinian people's declaration of complete surrender to the enemy
PIJ Secretary-General, Ziyad al-Nakhalah, in an address aired on Al Mayadeen: The Resistance is engaging in a fierce negotiating battle under the so-called Trump plan
Russian Federation Council approves joint military cooperation agreement with Cuba
Al-Nunu: Today, the lists of prisoners required to be released, the agreed-upon criteria and numbers, were exchanged
Al-Nunu from Sharm el-Sheikh: Negotiations focused on mechanisms for implementing an end to the war, the withdrawal of occupation forces from the Gaza Strip, and the exchange of prisoners

Trump might defy policy to reach nuclear deal with Iran: R. Statecraft

  • By Al Mayadeen English
  • Source: Responsible Statecraft
  • 27 Jan 2025 14:35
  • 1 Shares
5 Min Read

A report by Responsible Statecraft digests the challenges facing a US-Iran political and nuclear agreement, providing insight into possible solutions.

Listen
  • x
  • President Donald Trump gestures as he boards Air Force One en route to Florida at Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas, Saturday, Jan. 25, 2025. (AP)
    President Donald Trump gestures as he boards Air Force One en route to Florida at Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas, on Saturday, January 25, 2025. (AP)

President Donald Trump has signaled an unexpected shift in the conventional US policy regarding Iran, revealing that the only issue his administration would face with the Islamic Republic is its development of a nuclear weapon.

Speaking on Fox News’ Hannity show on January 23, Trump did not address Iran's regional policies, its defiance of the Israeli occupation, or the possibility of enforcing a regime change. Rather, his only focus was preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. 

In this regard, a Responsible Statecraft report, written by Eldar Mamedov, recalled previous statements by Iranian officials, confirming that the nation does not seek nuclear weapons, adding that this could facilitate a political agreement between Washington and Tehran. 

Tehran has also gestured its willingness to re-engage with the West, particularly following the election of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and his government coming to power. However, despite the mutual political willingness,  the path to a deal remains highly complex and is vastly different from 2015, when the JCPOA curtailed Iran’s nuclear program.  

Is a nuclear deal possible? 

Following Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA, his imposition of sanctions, and the EU's failure to abide by the terms of the deal, Iran significantly advanced its program, including enriching uranium to 60%—a step away from weapon-grade levels (90%)—and deploying advanced centrifuges. Nuclear expert Kelsey Davenport notes that Iran could now produce enough material for five to six nuclear bombs in just two weeks, according to Mamedov.  

The situation is further complicated by the limited access the IAEA has had to Iran since 2021, heightening concerns about unmonitored nuclear material potentially being moved to covert sites, as well as shifts in Iran’s nuclear rhetoric that suggest a potential rethinking of its doctrine.

Related News

Russia ratifies military deal with Cuba amid US escalation

Araghchi denies any contact with US envoy Witkoff over nuclear talks

While Tehran officially maintains it is not pursuing nuclear weapons, regional challenges could incentivize Iran to consider a nuclear deterrent, Mamedov explained. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s threats of a direct attack, possibly with US support and cover, could possibly motivate Iran to contemplate threshold weaponization as a defensive measure.

Mamedov writes that negotiations to achieve a potential deal would have to consider Iran's extensive nuclear program, as well as the set of motivations it has to expand its nuclear manufacturing. In this context, concessions would have to be made, addressing the regional situation and Iran and its allies' security concerns, which prompted nuclear development in the first place. 

Although Iran's Leader Sayyed Ali Khamenei approved re-engagement and Pezeshkian's reformist government advocated for a more proactive approach, majorly to ease US sanctions on the Islamic Republic, some Iranian politicians still have reserves, citing the US decision to withdraw from the JCPOA. This makes the matter one of "how to engage", rather than if engagement should be initiated. 

Some Iranian officials see little benefit in trading their nuclear leverage for uncertain sanctions relief. They are also bolstered by a new strategic partnership with Russia, which includes military and security cooperation, providing deterrence against potential attacks by "Israel" or the US.

The time is now!

Currently, proponents of waiting for a US initiative hold sway in Tehran at the moment. Reformists, however, argue this approach wastes time, suggesting Trump may seek a quick deal to enhance his peace-making image, especially with the Ukraine conflict dragging on. A limited framework deal, similar to Trump’s DPRK agreement, could be quickly drafted if the political decision is made, according to Mamedov.

While doubts remain about achieving a substantive follow-up deal, even a symbolic agreement—such as a handshake between Trump and an Iranian leader—could de-escalate tensions, marginalize pro-Netanyahu factions, and create room for broader negotiations addressing nuclear issues, sanctions, and regional concerns, Mamedov wrote. 

Diplomatically, Iran has engaged with the EU and E3 (Britain, France, Germany) to prevent them from undermining progress by invoking UN sanctions before the October 2025 deadline. While Tehran has no illusions about the EU’s ability to restore the JCPOA without US involvement, these talks signal Iran’s seriousness about a deal and aim to avoid the E3 acting as spoilers out of fear of being excluded from future US-Iran agreements.

The most viable path forward seems to be a limited bilateral deal between the US and Iran to ease tensions, followed by multilateral negotiations with the original JCPOA signatories. With political will apparent on all sides, the opportunity to advance diplomacy is now.

Read more: Trump says 'nice' to solve Iran nuclear crisis without Israeli strikes

  • United States
  • nuclear weapons
  • Nuclear agreement
  • Islamic Republic of Iran
  • Sayyed Ali Khamenei
  • Nuclear Deal
  • Donald Trump
  • Iran

Most Read

Tucker Carlson speaks at a memorial for Charlie Kirk, Sunday, September 21, 2025, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona (AP)

Tucker Carlson: Israeli officers gave orders on Iran inside Pentagon

  • Politics
  • 2 Oct 2025
A Hamas fighter in combat fatigues stands before the ceremony for the handover of Israeli captives to the Red Cross in Nuseirat, central Gaza Strip, Saturday, February 22, 2025 (AP)

Hamas responds to Trump plan, backs Gaza withdrawal, exchange

  • Politics
  • 3 Oct 2025
ap

'Israel' pays influencers $7K per post to whitewash Gaza genocide

  • Politics
  • 1 Oct 2025
Mossad’s secret role in Aldo Moro’s 1978 murder revealed

Mossad’s secret role in Aldo Moro’s 1978 murder exposed

  • Politics
  • 5 Oct 2025

Coverage

All
War on Gaza

Read Next

All
Retired Israeli General Brik says Israel has reached point of no return.
Politics

Retired Israeli General Brik: 'Israel has reached point of no return'

Depleted by foreign wars, US seeks to re-arm for another confrontation
Politics

Depleted by foreign wars, US seeks to re-arm for another confrontation

Gaza’s newborns gasp for life as hospitals collapse amid Israeli war
Health

Gaza newborns gasp for life, share oxygen masks amid collapsed system

UK arms exports to 'Israel' reach record high despite ban calls
Politics

UK arms exports to 'Israel' reach record high despite ban calls

Al Mayadeen English

Al Mayadeen is an Arab Independent Media Satellite Channel.

All Rights Reserved

  • x
  • Privacy Policy
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Authors
Android
iOS