Trump's presidency poses threat to G20 initiatives: FT

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: The Financial Times
18 Nov 2024 10:52

Argentina's veto warning has raised concerns that conservatives may feel encouraged to abandon global agreements on climate change and taxation.

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Environmental justice groups at COP29 in Azerbaijan demand a global energy embargo to end the genocide and liberate Palestine on November 11, 2024. (Social media)

A recent article by The Financial Times argued that Donald Trump's election as US president is already putting international initiatives on climate change and taxation at risk, as diplomats from the world’s wealthiest nations struggle to maintain a fragile consensus ahead of the G20 summit in Brazil.

Argentina, under President Javier Milei—an ally of Trump—has threatened to block a joint communique to be endorsed by G20 leaders in Rio de Janeiro. The objections focus on issues like taxing the super-rich and gender equality.

As leaders arrived in Brazil for the summit, diplomats were scrambling to finalize statements on climate finance and geopolitical matters, including the war in Ukraine. A draft compromise was circulated for preliminary approval, but it remained uncertain whether all countries would accept it. The negotiation process, as per the piece, was particularly challenging on the topic of how much developing nations should contribute to efforts addressing climate change, reflecting similar debates at the UN COP29 climate summit in Baku.

Milei's position has raised concerns among Western diplomats, who worry that Trump's election will embolden his conservative allies, potentially leading to a rollback of international agreements on global warming and other critical issues. Trump, in particular, has pledged to withdraw the US from the Paris climate accords.

“[The Argentine government] wants to make the G20 in Brazil a test between old and new forces,” said one Brazilian official as quoted by FT.

“After a year of negotiations on taxation and consensus, they are creating problems on things they accepted before, word by word,” the official stressed.

Argentina's opposition to G20 communique sparks fears of divisions

Argentina’s opposition to the initial draft of the G20 communique, prepared by leaders’ representatives in Rio de Janeiro, followed talks between President Javier Milei and US President-elect Donald Trump in Florida on Thursday—Trump's first meeting with a foreign leader since his electoral victory. Argentina was also the only country to vote against a UN resolution last week condemning online violence against women and girls.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, commenting on Argentina's stance, urged all nations to adopt a spirit of consensus for the success of the G20 summit. He said, “If the G20 splits, it will lose its global leverage and influence,” emphasizing the need for unity among the world’s most powerful nations.

The G20 summit in Rio, where Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will focus on issues like poverty, governance reform, and climate change, marks the first such gathering since the US election, with many leaders skipping the COP29 summit. Some officials fear the summit will be overshadowed by Trump’s opposition to many of its planned conclusions.

A European official involved in the communique negotiations expressed frustration, saying, “We’re all supposed to sit there and talk about the future of global cooperation and pretend that there’s not this guy on his way [to the White House] who couldn’t care less. It’s hard to see how anything decided here has much of a future.”

Argentina’s objections were specifically related to the inclusion of language on taxation, which Milei’s government had previously agreed to during a G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting last month, according to sources familiar with the talks as reported by FT.

Tax and global cooperation amid US transition

The October declaration committed to “work together towards a fairer, more inclusive, stable, and efficient international tax system for the 21st century,” reaffirming the dedication to tax transparency and promoting global dialogue on effective taxation, including of ultra-high-net-worth individuals. Milei opposed references to the Paris Agreement and the pledge to “stay united in the pursuit of the accord’s goals,” as well as the US’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Milei also withdrew his team of negotiators from the COP29 summit this week, as negotiators in Baku struggled to make progress on raising global funds for climate finance. The discord over the G20 communique compounded existing tensions within the group, particularly over the war in Ukraine and the ongoing wars in the Middle East.

It is worth noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the Rio summit. The summit will also be US President Joe Biden's final G20 meeting, as his administration had worked to leverage multilateral organizations like NATO, the G7, and the G20 to address issues such as the Ukraine war.

A senior European diplomat expressed concern, saying, “So, all this work that we have done with the US [under Biden] — what do we do with it now? We have lost the initiative.” The diplomat added, “Biden always tried to consult with us as much as possible. Trump will just go his own way.”