According to EU Commission, President Ursula von der Leyen, Canada is preparing to send back a Russian turbine for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to Germany on Sunday.

The turbine was shut for repairs and remained stranded for days due to Russian-related sanctions, but it is expected to be delivered on time to Germany first, then delivered to Russia on July 24.

Von der Leyen told a news conference on Wednesday that "the turbine [...] is already in transit back. So there is no pretext not to deliver gas, by the way, there are potentially also alternative turbines that fit, it is not one and single turbine in the world, but there [are] identical turbines. It is in transit, it will be there on time."

Nord Stream 1

The Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline is 1,224 km long and connects the city of Vyborg, Russia, to Greifswald, Germany, via the Baltic Sea. In service since 2011, it is managed by Nord Stream AG, whose majority of shareholders is owned by Russia's Gazprom.

On July 11, the pipeline went into maintenance for a period of ten days and was completely shut down. Nothing exceptional so far since this work takes place every summer.

But the political context against the backdrop of war in Ukraine worries German authorities. Berlin fears that Moscow will take advantage of this maintenance work to postpone the resumption of gas pipelines or even cut off the tap definitively as a form of political pressure.

Already in June, Gazprom had reduced the flow of gas arriving in Germany via Nord Stream 1 by 40%, on the grounds that Siemens turbines being repaired in Canada were missing from the company to be able to operate the gas pipeline at its full capacity.

The fate of the turbines as announced by Gazprom, therefore, further fuels uncertainty about the future of Nord Stream 1. At the beginning of July, Canada indicated that it was going to return to Germany a Siemens turbine being repaired in the country and intended for North Stream. This, despite the sanctions aimed at Moscow and calls from Ukraine not to “succumb to the blackmailing of the Kremlin”.

On July 18,  the turbine had been shipped by plane to Germany, information which has not been confirmed by the German authorities or by Siemens Energy. Five to seven days could pass between the receipt of the turbine by Germany and its arrival in Russia, postponing the return to service of the gas pipeline.

Read more: What would happen if Russia's gas flow to Germany stops?

A stoppage of the gas pipeline would have no direct impact on Germany's energy supply in the middle of summer. The gas supply was on July 19 "guaranteed" in the country despite a "tense" situation that could worsen. A shutdown of Nord Stream 1 would however compromise the filling of gas reserves for this winter, which were 65.1% full on July 19, according to official figures.

Even in the event of a minimum resumption of deliveries after the maintenance of the gas pipeline, the stocks will only be fully filled for the winter in the event of a reduction in gas exports and consumption, warned the Federal Network Agency.

Read more: German factories weigh decreasing production, recession on the horizon