According to a report by the Washington Post, the sudden ousting of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria has led to uncertainty about the long-standing US military presence in the country. As the Pentagon's primary partner in Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), fights for survival, US President-elect Donald Trump, who is skeptical of foreign military commitments, will face a transformed Middle East when he begins his second term next month. One of the key questions will be the future of the nearly 2,000 US troops stationed in eastern Syria.

The Washington Post notes that despite Trump’s repeated threats to withdraw US forces from Syria during his first term, he has not revealed any specific plans for the troops there. However, he and his advisors have emphasized that "containing" ISIS will remain a top priority.

In turn, James Jeffrey, former US Special Envoy for Syria during Trump’s first term, framed the narrative, saying that the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has fought ISIS in the past, as mentioned in the report. 

Significantly, the report fails to mention the pretext under which the two armed groups fought leaving the intricate details of the 13-year war in Syria unaddressed. However,  the Washington Post did stress that Jefferey argued that this aforementioned point could increase pressure on Trump to justify the US presence in Syria.

Jeffrey told the Washington Post, "Trump will ask: Why should I keep troops to fight ISIS, when our entire fight is basically bombing them in the desert?"

He added, "It will be extremely difficult to answer that question."

The Washington Post further reports that Representative Michael Waltz, chosen by Trump as National Security Advisor, said the president would prioritize reducing foreign entanglements. However, Waltz also acknowledged that preventing the return of ISIS remains "the number one priority," making the military strategy for the incoming administration unclear.

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In the same report, it is highlighted that both Trump’s team and the Biden administration, which recently sent senior diplomats to Syria for the first time in over a decade, are approaching HTS with caution. While HTS has promised stability and inclusivity, it is still listed as a foreign terrorist organization by the US. However, it is important to note that discussions about removing the group from the terrorist list began after the collapse of the Syrian regime.

The Washington Post also mentions that Pentagon and US Central Command (CENTCOM) officials have been involved in meetings to explore how Syria’s future will intersect with broader regional disruptions. The report notes that the risks to US personnel are high, with American forces operating in small, vulnerable bases in Syria, similar to those in Iraq and Jordan.

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One of the key developments cited by the Washington Post is the Pentagon’s recent admission that US military presence in Syria has doubled this year, from approximately 900 troops to nearly 2,000. This revelation raises questions about the future of the mission and what steps the new administration will take.

The Washington Post also emphasizes that the future of the troops' presence will likely depend on the relationships between Kurdish authorities in northeastern Syria, the new government in Damascus led by HTS, and the US’ ongoing support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). While the SDF has been a reliable partner, its aspirations for permanent autonomy have caused friction between the US and NATO ally Turkey.

Where Turkey fits in

Turkey has pressured the US to broker agreements between the SDF and Turkish-backed Arab militias, including one that required the SDF to withdraw from the city of Manbij. The Washington Post reports that this agreement has led to setbacks, as the SDF seeks to distance Arab forces from Kobani, a Kurdish-majority city near the Turkish border, with Turkish-backed forces now likely to attempt to seize it.

Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a prominent figure in anti-Axis of Resistance circles, was quoted in the Washington Post saying the SDF faces "an extremely difficult situation" and is more vulnerable than ever, as some non-Kurdish fighters abandon the group and its leadership questions how long they can rely on US support.

Another point of concern for US officials, as noted in the Washington Post, is the presence of prisons and camps that house ISIS fighters and their families, which are currently guarded by the SDF.

Farhad Shamsi, a spokesperson for the SDF, warned that ISIS is trying to infiltrate northeastern Syria, some even joining groups backed by Turkey, with whom the SDF has clashed recently. Shamsi told the Washington Post, "We hope they maintain their presence here in Syria, especially in this critical situation, because we believe ISIS will re-emerge."

Retired General Joseph Votel, former commander of US Central Command, was also cited by the Washington Post, urging the US to continue pressuring Turkey to halt operations against Kurdish forces in Syria. Votel warned that abandoning Kurdish fighters could enable ISIS to re-establish itself in the region.

The Washington Post further reports that the instability in Syria has also raised questions about the future of the US mission in neighboring Iraq, which has served as a hub for counterinsurgency operations. As US forces help Iraq fight ISIS and balance Iran’s influence in the region, the US military presence remains a sensitive issue for Iraqi leaders.

In recent talks with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, US officials discussed the potential for a US military withdrawal from Iraq by the fall of 2025. However, an Iraqi official told the Washington Post that Iraq’s stance on the US withdrawal has shifted after recent regional developments. The official stated that the deadline for withdrawal “now seems distant,” and added that Iraq would likely request an extension to allow US forces to stay longer.

The Washington Post report claims that Iraqi officials have become more open to US requests for reconnaissance missions near the Iraqi-Syrian border, though al-Sudani has not asked for an extension of the US military presence. This shift in perspective reflects the growing concern over the region’s instability as US forces continue to play a key role in managing the evolving situation in Syria and Iraq.

Similarly, the British newspaper, The Times, published a report suggesting that ISIS resurgence in Syria threatens stability amid the political shifts. As such, it appears that a clear pattern emerges regarding the resurgence of ISIS in the region.
 
 Read more: 'Israel', Turkiye expand influence in post-Assad Syria: Bloomberg