A report by the New York Times on Friday signaled that in the two years since the Ukraine war began, the collective West has effectively failed to isolate Russia.

According to the report, despite facing condemnation from international bodies like the International Criminal Court and the United Nations, Russian President Vladimir Putin's hold on power remains firm, supported by Russia's vast oil and natural gas supplies, which fuel its resilience in the face of Western opposition.

While the Biden administration claims Russia is more isolated than ever and has suffered strategic setbacks due to the war, evidence suggests otherwise. 

Russia has strengthened economic and diplomatic ties with countries like China, India, Brazil, and Gulf states, which have increased purchases of Russian oil and deepened diplomatic relations.

Moreover, Russia's influence in Africa has expanded, particularly through its military intelligence service's involvement in security operations previously managed by the Wagner contracting group.

"There is no way Russia is locked in," Michael Kimmage, a Cold War historian, told NYT. "He is not limited economically or diplomatically and conveys his message about the war."

Reality check

Some observers believe that American and European leaders are still in denial about this reality.

"What Western leaders have evidently failed to do is be frank with their publics about the enduring nature of the threat from an emboldened and revisionist Russia," Eugene Rumer and Andrew S. Weiss of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote in November.

Western disappointment further stems from Putin's warm welcome in Brazil despite expectations of isolation. Despite being an ICC member, Brazil invited Putin to a G20 summit earlier this week. Brazil's President, Lula da Silva, has advocated for peace talks for Ukraine, but this has been met with strong criticism from Ukraine.

"Brazil does not accept a world in which differences are resolved 'through military use' force," Brazil’s top diplomat, Mauro Vieira, was heard saying during the summit.

While Blinken and a few counterparts from allied nations condemned Russia's military operation at the G20, others echoed the neutral stance of the Brazilian minister or remained silent on the conflict.

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Moreover, at the United Nations, resolutions led by the US condemning the war have garnered minimal backing from countries not closely allied with either the US or Russia, which, according to the report, indicates their hesitation to be coerced into choosing sides in the conflict. 

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"These countries fear being seen as pawns on a chessboard of great power competition," said Alina Polyakova, president of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington. "The last administration did a lot of damage to our relationship with many of these countries. "We have not been seen as a credible partner."

"Russian disinformation has been effective in many places," he added. "And in many of these countries, Russia has invested for decades."

So what do we make of this?

The report may be correct in arguing that Western leaders are still in denial about the fact that the war, even though it has not fully come to an end yet, is so far being won by Russia.

The recent fall of the city of Avdiivka, coupled with Russia's economic resilience, has indeed driven Western leaders crazy. Even more concerning is the reality that Russia has emerged as an example for other nations in how to resist US sanctions.

The ongoing war in Ukraine has indeed spurred debates about de-dollarization in recent years. Mainstream narratives normally highlight the depth and safety of the US financial market, suggesting that the dollar is unquestionably irreplaceable.

Despite encountering sanctions, the value of the Russian ruble has remained relatively stable, effectively showing the limitations of measuring economic worth solely in dollar terms. Moreover, Russia's development of alternative payment systems such as the Mir system and its alliance with China further undermine the dollar's dominance. 

Efforts to de-dollarize the global economy had already been gaining traction far before the war in Ukraine erupted. They became particularly evident when the BRICS expanded to include some of the US's most crucial allies, including Saudi Arabia, which played a pivotal role in the creation of the petrodollar system.

Desperate times call for desperate measures

In another attempt to try to isolate Russia, the US recently announced plans to impose sanctions on more than 500 targets allegedly affiliated with Russia over the war in Ukraine.

Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, who issued the announcement on Thursday, has said that the new round of sanctions promised to be "crushing". 

"When you see this package that we're going to launch in a couple of days, it is very heavily focused on evasion, on nodes and networks and countries that help evade willingly or otherwise, and on the banks that support and allow that kind of evasion and some of the inputs for the weapons," Nuland said.

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This development further came a day after a team of legal experts deemed that the confiscation of Russian assets is permissible under international law, citing Russia's ongoing special military operation in Ukraine.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cautioned on Thursday that Western plans to seize frozen Russian assets could pose a threat to the global monetary system and entail unforeseen risks.

Approximately $300 billion in securities and cash have been frozen by the EU, G7 nations, and Australia, with the majority held in the EU.

While there was a belief that these funds should remain inaccessible to Russia unless it assists in Ukraine's reconstruction, there was disagreement over the legality of outright asset seizure.

They therefore sought guidance from a team of ten international law experts and practitioners, who unanimously affirmed in a joint letter that the seizure of assets is entirely legal.

"We have concluded that it would be lawful, under international law, for States which have frozen Russian State assets to take additional countermeasures against Russia, given its ongoing breach of the most fundamental rules of international law, in the form of transfers of Russian State assets as compensation for the damage that has resulted directly from Russia’s unlawful conduct," the experts in the letter, which was obtained by Bloomberg on Wednesday.