Ukraine struggles to recruit troops and regain momentum
3 Min Read
Alexander Titov of The Conversation argues that despite Ukraine's claims that Putin will call for mobilization, it is in fact Kiev that is struggling to maintain its troops on the battlefield.
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Recruits hold their weapons during military training at a firing range in Donetsk on October 4, 2022. (AP)
According to Alexander Titov of The Conversation, despite the large number of reservists the Kremlin can draw on, it is clear that another round of recalls would be very unpopular, especially in the run-up to the next presidential elections in May 2024.
Putin previously called nearly 300,000 men, 1% of the eligible reservists at the beginning of Ukraine's hyped counteroffensive. Ukraine's long-discussed counteroffensive is nearing its end without any significant progress, BBC concluded in a field report conducted at the east front lines in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian disinformation campaign has been suggesting that Putin will once again call for mobilization, even though this never occurred.
Spreading rumors about an impending Russian mobilization is clearly part of Ukraine's psychological warfare, but the more this is done without anything happening, the less credible it becomes.
Titov argues that it is Ukraine on the contrary, that is struggling to recruit enough troops to regain momentum.
Read more: Pentagon blames Russian e-warfare for failed Ukraine counteroffensive
In addition, he adds that Russia is intensifying its military production and may enter 2024 with more heavyweight weapons, ammunition, and troop experience. He finds it hard to fathom why Russia would choose unpopular mobilization when it can "withstand anything Ukraine and its Nato allies can throw at it?"
Kiev desperate to send people to the front lines
This summer was arguably a strategic failure for Ukraine and NATO in their efforts to finish the war militarily. NATO countries did their best to provide and train Ukraine. And, thus far, it has generated virtually nothing, the author remarks.
In the month of July alone, Ukraine lost 20,824 soldiers and 2,227 pieces of military equipment during battles, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported.
To have a second chance, Ukraine will need to mobilize even more troops and acquire more powerful weaponry in bigger quantities than ever before. Despite all the rhetoric about Russia's mobilization, Ukraine appears to be the one suffering from a shortage.
Kiev is turning to increasingly severe means to send enough people to the front lines. It has lately expanded mobilization to previously excluded populations such as the partly disabled.
Titov believes the current anti-corruption campaign on military recruiters reveals that after 18 months of war, traditional methods of mobilization are no longer sufficient. It also suggests that many people are anxious to escape mobilization and are prepared to pay bribes. It's no surprise that Ukrainian males of combat age are barred from leaving the country.
If scores of troops who do not want to fight are forced onto the battleground, Ukraine may also see a large effect on its morale.
Titov underscores that Biden is already seeking an additional $20 billion in aid for Ukraine, something proving difficult in the Republican-controlled Congress.
The basic line is that Ukraine, which is fully reliant on foreign aid both financially and militarily, will struggle to maintain its present level of conflict. Right now, it is Kiev, not Moscow, that is under the most strain.
