Ukraine’s counteroffensive is 'running back into stalemate': Reports
5 Min Read
Those who believe that the counteroffensive is showing "notable progress" for Ukraine are just keeping their expectations in check. However, they do know about the various factors that slow down the Ukrainian forces' advancement.
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Ukrainian Army troops receive munitions at a field on the outskirts of Izyum, Eastern Ukraine, Tuesday, April 15, 2014. (AP)
Some reports claim that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has been moving along more quickly lately and achieved some notable victories. The White House's spokesperson, John Kirby, lauded the Ukrainian troops' "notable progress" during the previous 72 hours in a southern offensive near the Zaporozhye area after they allegedly liberated the village of Robotyne last week.
Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, a brigadier general in the Ukrainian army, claimed over the weekend that his nation's forces had successfully breached Russia's first defensive line near Zaporozhye and that Moscow had only devoted 20% of its time and resources to each of the second and third lines.
Although the most recent news seems to support Ukraine, it appears that its supporters are working to keep expectations in check rather than to boost them, according to UnHerd.
Read: US expects Ukraine counteroffensive not to meet goals: WashPo
Ivo Daalder, a former US ambassador to NATO, stated to the Wall Street Journal last month that the US government has come to the realization that "Ukraine's not going to be regaining all its territory any time soon."
Still 55 miles to go before Azov Sea
According to a US intelligence estimate, Ukraine won't be able to reach Melitopol, a crucial logistical hub, and Western policymakers and military strategists are reportedly already planning for next year's spring counteroffensive.
The counterattack by Ukraine has been moving slowly for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the size of the task. Former British general Sir Richard Barrons pointed out that progress has been made in the south this summer, but there are still 55 miles to go before Ukraine reaches its much-touted aim of reaching the Sea of Azov and severing the land bridge to Crimea.
The well-established and extensive network of Russian defenses, including minefields, anti-tank ditches, and "Dragon's Teeth" barricades, have also forced Ukrainian forces to engage in combat, UnHerd noted.
Read: Ukraine could become 'forever war' at great cost for collective West
Oleksii Reznikov, the recently ousted defense minister of Ukraine, lamented the presence of up to five Russian mines per square meter of land. This has considerably slowed down Ukrainian forces' advancement; according to Tarnavskiy, minefields have been impeding Ukrainian forces for weeks as infantry sappers tried to clear an attack route on foot while Russian forces used drones and shells to target vehicles.
That is prior to discussing difficulties with the availability of ammunition and training. The US won't begin training F-16 fighter jet pilots until October, and according to Troels Poulsen, the acting defense minister of Denmark, Ukraine won't see results until the beginning of next year. Ukrainian soldiers have reported crippling disconnects between NATO drills and the realities of the front lines, despite the fact that 63,000 of their soldiers have participated in training in NATO countries due to time constraints.
Read more: F-16 training: Ukrainian pilots will not be operational before 2024
Ukraine rejecting option of freezing battle
Dmytro Kuleba, the foreign minister of Ukraine, launched his own defensive strategy last week, ordering those who were critical of the counteroffensive of his nation to "shut up" and "try to liberate one square centimeter by themselves." The most recent advancement should not overshadow the possibility that this will be the first of many counteroffensives, replicating the pattern from the previous year, which saw advancement in the autumn, a winter standstill, and more major advancement in the spring. This probably won't be the last time Ukraine has to defend its war effort's glacial pace.
It is worth noting that despite the fact that Ukraine's counteroffensive is moving more slowly than anticipated, Ukraine continues to reject the option of freezing the battle.
A week ago, EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell stated that he expects to obtain an agreement with EU members on the provision of up to $5.4 billion in military aid to Ukraine by the end of 2023.
In a bid to regain lost ground, Ukraine launched a much-anticipated counteroffensive in early June. However, the Russian Defense Ministry has asserted that Ukrainian forces have struggled to make advances along three specific directions: South Donetsk, Bakhmut, and Zaporizhzhia, with the latter being of primary concern.
The Ukrainian government has been scrambling for equipment and weapons to continue its counteroffensive which has so far not made any significant change in the power balance of the war in Ukraine as it was initially anticipated.
