UK's ruling party set to lose 263 seats in next year's elections: Poll

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: The National
9 Aug 2023 20:19

A poll shows that the Conservative Party will only hold 90 seats in next year's parliamentary elections, dealing the UK ruling party a major blow.

A sniffer dog and police handler check the auditorium area of the Manchester Central convention center in Manchester, United Kingdom, ahead of an annual conference of the Conservative Party, on September 30, 2017. (AFP)

In a recent poll conducted by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus, the UK Conservative Party is poised for a significant defeat in the upcoming election.

The poll predicts that they are likely to secure only 90 seats out of the total 650 in the UK House of Commons.

In stark contrast, the Labour Party is projected to achieve an impressive victory, with the poll indicating that they could secure a landslide win, securing 461 seats in next year's election.

The Tories currently hold 353 seats in the British Parliament, which would make such an outcome devastating for the party that has already experienced a fair share of troubles and controversies.

If these projections were to materialize, it would mark the Conservative Party's poorest electoral performance to date, while also signifying the most successful election outcome in the history of the Labour Party.

Competing for the third-place position are the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Liberal Democrats (LibDems), both expected to secure 38 and 37 seats respectively.

The SNP has held the third-place position in Westminster since 2015, capitalizing on the decline of Scottish Labour and the LibDems. This rise came after they emerged as the largest party following the government and the official opposition.

Utilizing advanced modeling techniques, the pollsters transformed the voting intentions of over 11,000 individuals into seat projections.

The researchers also forecasted that notable figures, including the current Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, could potentially lose their seats if the election results mirror the poll's predictions next year.

Furthermore, this scenario would result in the removal of prominent figures such as Energy Secretary Grant Shapps, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, and other cabinet ministers.

"Our poll of 11,142 [British] adults demonstrates the scale of the swing from Conservative to Labour, showing the likelihood of a Labour landslide," Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now, said

"This swing should not overshadow the apparent re-establishment of the Liberal Democrats as a credible third party after nearly a decade in the political wilderness."

Since September 2022, the Conservative Party has had two Prime Ministers resign from office, as Premier Boris Johnson's stay in office was ailed with multiple controversies. The Tories also elected what came to be the shortest-serving government in British history after Liz Truss resigned from office on October 25, 2022.

On July 21, the party lost two of its seats after a by-election took place to fill in the vacancies of resigned Members of Parliament, marking another hit for the Tories in the UK.