US and allies preparing for a Ukrainian government-in-exile
The US administration and its allies in Europe are quietly preparing for a Ukrainian insurgency, and to establish and support a Ukrainian government-in-exile.
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US and European officials have begun to prepare for how to support the Ukrainian government if Russia succeeds in its operation.
With the war still barely two weeks old, Washington and European capitals have begun to plan for contingencies, as they expect that the Russian military will soon reverse its early losses.
According to a report by The Washington Post, Western capitals will move ahead with supporting a Ukrainian insurgency. Officials have not yet openly discussed this plan, since its entire premise is predicated on a Russian victory, but if that indeed happens, then the first step would be to help establish a government-in-exile that would direct the insurgency against Russia.
The weapons provided by the United States and its allies will be "crucial to the success of an insurgent movement", the officials said, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky being the "pivotal force" behind it.
Read more: Declassified shipment list shows how US was hyping Ukraine for war
The Chairman of the Russian State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, said on Friday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has left Ukraine for Poland. Volodin said, in a statement on his Telegram channel, that Zelensky left Ukraine, and that Ukrainian MPs have said that they cannot find him in Lvov.
Volodin had announced on February 26 that Zelensky left Kiev for Lvov.
“We’re doing contingency planning now for every possibility,” including a scenario in which Zelensky establishes a government-in-exile in Poland, said a U.S. administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Fostering destabilization
A Ukrainian special operations commander told Congressmen Michael Waltz and Seth Moulton, in addition to other lawmakers, that training is being shifted to focus on maintaining an armed opposition through insurgent-like tactics.
Moulton said he is in favor of sending Harpoons and Stingers to the Ukrainian forces, but that using these weapons will require training, meaning continued clandestine shipments of small arms, ammunition, explosives, and cold-weather gear.
“Think about the kinds of things that would be used by saboteurs as opposed to an army repelling a frontal invasion,” Moulton said.
However, there still remains some caution about overt support for this insurgency, because it may draw NATO countries into a conflict with Russia, as in Moscow's eyes, support for a Zelensky-led government-in-exile operating in Poland may constitute an attack by the alliance.
One hope rests with Russian and Ukrainian negotiators reaching some settlement in their meetings, as this would likely diminish the momentum for an insurgency and any support for it, according to Jack Devine, a retired senior CIA officer who helped arm the Taliban against the Soviet military in the 1980s.
