The Wall Street Journal (WSJ)'s editorial board reported on Monday that honesty is not the default policy in Washington, so the political and media classes were shocked this weekend by the leak of a private warning by a US general telling his troops to prepare for a possible war with China over Taiwan in two years.

General Michael Minihan told his troops: “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025," in an internal memo leaked to NBC News. 

In his memo, the general in charge of the Air Mobility Command, the Air Force's tank-refueling operation, states that he wants his force to be "ready to fight and win in the first island chain" off the eastern coast of continental Asia. He advocated for more calculated risks in training, according to WSJ. 

Minihan's memo calls on all Mobile Command personnel to go to the firing range, "fire a clip" into a target, and "aim for the head." This comes amid reports from senior Biden administration officials claiming that China has been expediting its plans to take over Taiwan.

The general's document will not be remembered for its nuance. One of his recommendations is that airmen with weapons qualifications begin practicing target shooting with "unrepentant lethality." Another instructs airmen to organize their affairs. This candor appears to have alarmed higher-ups at the Pentagon, with an unidentified Defense official telling NBC that the general's "comments are not representative of the department's view on China."

However, according to WSJ, while Gen. Minihan’s words may be blunt, his position is broadly shared, as US Navy Admiral Phil Davidson told Congress in 2021 that he said China was “accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States,” and could strike Taiwan before 2027.

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General Minihan was appointed after serving as the deputy commander of the Indo-Pacific Command. Like many others, he believes that 2025 is a good time for Chinese President Xi Jinping to make a move. Both Taiwan and the United States will hold presidential elections in 2024, which China may regard as a sign of weakness, according to WSJ. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last year that Beijing was “determined to pursue reunification” with Taiwan “on a much faster timeline” than it had previously contemplated, according to WSJ.

According to WSJ, Gen. Minihan is doing his troops a favor by speaking directly about a war they might have to fight. A recent simulation conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned that, in a conflict over Taiwan, “the scale of casualties” would “stagger a US military that has dominated battlefields for a generation.”

According to the report, Gen. Minihan's boom operators are used to working in skies controlled by the US. Given the vast distance across the Pacific, tankers would be critical in a fight for Taiwan—but they would be vulnerable to heavy losses.

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Last week, former naval officer Seth Cropsey explained that America is not investing in the ships and weapons stockpiles needed to support a long war in the Western Pacific.

The WSJ argued that because of such glaring gaps in American preparedness, Beijing is more likely to take action against Taiwan. To avoid a war for Taiwan, the US must demonstrate to Beijing that it has the means and will to fight and repel an alleged invasion.

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