US may be looking to punish OPEC

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According to James Durso of Oil Price, in early May, the United States House of Representatives Judiciary Committee was reportedly considering a bill to put pressure on the OPEC oil producers' group to stop cutting output by revoking the sovereign immunity that had protected OPEC+ members and their national oil companies from price collusion lawsuits. (The measure was previously approved by the committee in 2018, 2019, and 2021.)

The OPEC Basket Price has been hovering around the mid-$70s, which is not historically high, though American politicians want to talk down gasoline prices before the summer driving season begins. (Saudi Arabia needs a price of $80.90 USD to balance its budget and finance economic diversification.)

Although gasoline prices are greater than they were under Trump. Gallup polling reported in April 2023 that “Americans show significantly less concern about the U.S. energy situation now than they did a year ago.”

If Americans are not outraged about gas prices, that could mean the US is reacting to a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia (mediated by China); Egypt and Iran beginning to normalize relations (mediated by Iraq); Syria rejoining the Arab League; the UAE and Iran in talks to strengthen ties; and the possibility of energy cooperation between Iraq and Iran.

In addition to a punishment for Arab OPEC members, the bill may be a message to others, for repairing relations with Iran and Syria under the guise of safeguarding American consumers. It also avoids a mention of the Biden administration's strategy of limiting oil and gas output, despite the fact that the government has recently permitted limited drilling on federal lands.

A bipartisan group of US congressmen has launched the "Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act of 2023," which would challenge international governments' outreach to Syria and allow for extra penalties against anybody doing business with the Assad regime. 

Durso believes this means that "Israel" and the US would be the losers in the deal. Israelis since they are unlikely to be able to rely on Arab support for an attack on Iran's nuclear research facilities, and the United States, which is losing influence as OPEC members in the Middle East begin to normalize relations with the governments in Tehran and Damascus, and OPEC welcomes China's mediation of talks between Tehran and Riyadh, as well as Russia's facilitation of talks between Saudi Arabia and Syria, and Syria and Turkey. (The worst-case scenario for "Tel Aviv" and Washington is Chinese engagement in Israeli-Palestinian talks.)

Normalization of ties between Arab OPEC states, Iran, and Syria would reduce tensions in the region, which is not in Washington's interests because large clients like the Saudis and Emiratis would reduce purchases of anti-Iran weaponry. Tensions also keep the US active in the vicinity in order to "ensure stability," despite the fact that US activities in Iraq and Libya (and its supporting role in Yemen) ensured the reverse. And the region's tension makes it simple for "Israel's" 'Shabbos goy' in the US to scupper any efforts to persuade "Israel" and the Palestinians to start peace negotiations "or else," especially if the Palestinians welcome the Chinese into the process. 

According to the 2022 Arab Youth Survey, The 2022 Arab Youth Survey also found, “Nearly three-fourths (73%) want to see the US disengage from the region. China, Turkey, and Russia are now seen as the region’s strongest allies” and “the default position of looking to the West in times of crisis is being eroded by new allegiances to China, Russia, and Turkey.” 

This view may lead to other Arab powers, such as Saudi Arabia, declining to join American schemes like the normalization Accords, which "Israel" still thinks will be a detour around peace talks with the Palestinians, and instead favoring local measures to stabilize the area.

Thus, Washington's attack on the Middle East's economic engine, petroleum, and the use of sanctions to thwart efforts to reduce conflict and estrangement between OPEC Arabs, Iran, and Syria. Peace is critical because it would cut weapon sales, promote regional economic diversity and integration, and diminish the need for Washington's "solutions," as well as introduce new economic and political actors to the area, like China and Turkey. 

Washington has a lot of power and can push events in the near term, but it has already lost the hearts and minds of Middle Eastern young who have grown up with the US constantly involved in war operations in their country since 2001 - all for nothing.