US pressure on Ukraine could thwart counteroffensive: Insider
4 Min Read
Although the exact timing of the counteroffensive is still unknown, experts argue that it may start any day now.
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Servicemen in the National Guard of Ukraine take part in military exercises in Kharkiv in April. (AFP)
A report published by Business Insider on Sunday revealed that excessive pressure on Ukraine may lead to Kiev's counteroffensive plans being thwarted.
Citing former Army officials, the report states that expectations for the war to end with a win for Ukraine are growing increasingly higher. Although the exact timing of the counteroffensive is still unknown, experts argue that it may now start at any moment.
But excessively high anticipations for a Ukrainian victory on part of western allies and the US seem to be causing more damage than help to the war-torn country.
"Regardless of what happens on the ground, this has to be seen as a success to the Ukrainian people and US and European politicians," Mick Ryan, a retired Major General in the Australian Army and a military strategist, told Insider.
"There are many in the US and NATO who are concerned this is going to be a forever war, that it will go on for years and the West will continue to pour money into it without much progress," said Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps colonel and a senior advisor with the Center for Strategic and International Studies' security program.
Read more: Germany plans to send Kiev $3bln worth of military aid
Money is a considerable factor in this context, the report states. The US has been the largest contributor to the conflict, pouring billions of dollars in financial and military assistance to Kiev since the start of the conflict.
Ukraine not so optimistic
If Kiev manages to regain the annexed territories, this would signal the US and NATO allies that prospects for a Ukrainian victory are in sight.
However, some Ukrainian officials have not been so optimistic relative to the final outcome of the counteroffensive, including President Volodymyr Zelensky who told the Washington Post earlier this week that forecasts of a massive change in war dynamics may be exaggerated.
But according to Ben Hodges, a retired lieutenant general and former commander of US Army Europe, turning the matter into a make-or-break for Kiev exerts tremendous amounts of pressure.
"I would reject the talk that Ukraine's only got one shot, that if it doesn't achieve a knockout blow then that's it and everyone will say 'too bad,' and stop supporting them," Hodges told Business Insider.
Some politicians have been pushing forth the narrative that if Ukraine were to lose, then aid would inevitably have to be cut. Hodges argues that this is a narrative deliberately used by politicians who either do not wish to see a victorious Ukraine or are rushed to put a quick end to the war.
"We've spent billions of dollars, supposedly because we believed in what Ukraine was fighting for," Hodges said.
Read more: US safety conditional to Russia's defeat: US CJCS Milley
There is far more to this conflict than simply two countries at war, he says, noting that Western allies are engaged in providing all the necessary support to ensure that the so-called "rules-based" order remains the Status Quo.
"If we're not willing to stick together and help Ukraine defeat Russia, then truly we don't actually value those things," Hodges said.
He cites a range of several factors pertaining to why Western anxiety is so high regarding this conflict, including the non-belief that Russia could lose and other fears related to the use of nuclear weapons.
He further expressed the belief that many of the high-ranking officials serving in the Biden administration are not truly committed to Ukraine winning, noting that the administration has itself failed to clearly define the US' strategic aims in assisting Ukraine in its war efforts.
Nonetheless, many experts remain optimistic regarding Ukraine's counter-offensive, arguing that Ukraine's "superior" willpower will drive it towards the victory sought by the West.
"The only thing I think that can screw this up is if the West exerts so much pressure on Ukraine and it causes them to stop short of a total victory," Hodges said.
Read more: Ukraine conflict could end if West halts weapons delivery: Borrell
