US spy agencies reviewing mistakes on Ukraine, Russia
4 Min Read
While American intelligence services have been acknowledged for assisting Ukrainian forces, they are now under bipartisan pressure to assess what they got wrong in the first place.
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Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines
While American intelligence services have been acknowledged for assisting Ukrainian forces, they are now facing bipartisan pressure to assess what they got wrong in the first place, particularly following their blunders in appraising Afghanistan last year.
Read more: 2021 Roundup: The failed US withdrawal from Afghanistan
Intelligence officials have initiated a reassessment of how their organizations assess other countries' willingness and ability to fight. The review is taking place as US intelligence continues to meddle in and play a huge role in Ukraine, and as the White House increases military sales and backing to Ukraine, attempting to foresee what Putin may regard as escalation and prevent a direct conflict with Russia.
Recently, CNN reported that US administration officials had wanted to reveal a fresh package of military supplies to Ukraine, which may include multiple-launch rocket launchers.
Read more: Russia cautions West against "mindlessly pumping weapons into Ukraine"
Since late February, the Biden administration has made many adjustments to a secret order governing what information US agencies can disclose with Ukraine. Much of what the US gathers is shared, but some are not.
Read more: NYT: US intelligence helping Ukraine kill Russian generals
Lawmakers from both parties question if the US could have done more before the war began and whether the White House withheld some backing because of negative evaluations of Ukraine. Sen. Angus King, an independent from Maine, told officials last month at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing that "had we had a better handle on the prediction, we could have done more to assist the Ukrainians earlier.”
In an interview, Ohio Rep. Mike Turner, the senior Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, said the White House and key administration officials put “their own bias on the situation in a way that lends itself to inaction.”
Last month, the Senate Intelligence Committee issued a confidential letter to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence inquiring about intelligence services' assessments of Ukraine and Afghanistan. The letter was originally reported by CNN.
Read more: Pentagon: US intelligence to Ukraine "making difference" in fight against Russia
In May, National Intelligence Director Avril Haines informed legislators that the National Intelligence Council will look into how the agencies determine the "will to fight" and "capacity to fight." Both concerns are “quite challenging to provide effective analysis on and we’re looking at different methodologies for doing so."
While no date has been set for the assessment, which began before the committee's letter, authorities have detected several problems. On the condition of anonymity, several people knowledgeable about prewar assessments spoke to AP about classified intelligence.
Firstly, Russia has not utilized chemical or biological weapons, despite public warnings from the US. According to one individual, the US has "very strong concerns" about a chemical assault, which were never materialized.
On the contrary, Russian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Major General Igor Konashenkov revealed that Kiev was urgently covering up traces of a military biological program carried out in Ukraine and funded by the Pentagon.
Secondly, predictions that Russia would launch a wave of cyberattacks against Ukraine and its allies have yet to materialize.
The current head of the DIA, Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, said in March that "my view was that, based on a variety of factors, that the Ukrainians were not as ready as I thought they should be."
In May, Berrier separated himself from the whole intelligence community, claiming that no assessment indicated the Ukrainians "lacked the will to fight."
In conclusion, what we can learn from this assessment is that as usual, the US, with its own bias and superiority complex, was wrong.
