Welsh nationalists' by-election win deals heavy blow to Labour Party

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: News websites
24 Oct 2025 08:31

Plaid Cymru's victory in Wales's Caerphilly by-election marks a major setback for Labour, signaling voter discontent and a potential rise of Welsh nationalism.

Listen

Supporters of Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru celebrate their victory in the Caerphilly by-election, a result that marks a historic loss for Labour and signals growing momentum for Welsh independence. (X, @RhunapIorwerth)

In a major political upset, the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru has won a by-election in the Caerphilly district of south Wales, taking a seat that had long been controlled by the Labour Party. The result points to growing public frustration with the traditional ruling party in Wales and the United Kingdom.

Wales is one of the four nations that make up the United Kingdom (along with England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland). It has its own local parliament, known as the Senedd, which decides on key issues such as health and education.

Plaid Cymru, which advocates independence for Wales, won the Caerphilly seat with 15,961 votes, defeating the right-wing Reform UK party, whose candidate Llyr Powell gained 12,113 votes. Labour's candidate, Richard Tunnicliffe, came in third with 3,713 votes, a dramatic drop in a region once considered a Labour stronghold.

New leadership

The new member of parliament, Lindsay Whittle, said the victory was dedicated to Hefin David, the previous Labour representative whose death led to the by-election. "He will be a hard act to follow. I will never fill his shoes but I promise I will walk the same path that he did," Whittle said, as quoted by The Guardian. Addressing the national governments in Cardiff and London, he declared, "Listen Cardiff and listen Westminster. This is Caerphilly. And we are telling you we want a better deal. Wales is at the dawn of a new leadership, a new beginning."

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said the outcome put his party in a strong position ahead of next year's Welsh elections. "There is deep, deep disillusionment with Labour, both on a UK level and at a Welsh government level, and the people are looking for new leadership," he said. "A Plaid Cymru win here tonight is the clearest evidence yet of who is in the driving seat to lead government for next year."

He also criticized Reform UK, saying, "I don't think Reform have shown they are particularly interested in Wales. It's all about getting [Reform leader] Nigel Farage to Downing Street."

Although Reform UK came second, the result was a disappointment for Nigel Farage, who had personally visited the area to campaign. Candidate Llyr Powell told reporters afterwards, "We decimated Labour. It's a massive gain for us here," adding that the party used the election to "train people and master our campaigning."

Labour Setback

The loss is a serious blow for the Labour Party, which has dominated Welsh politics for over a century and currently governs Wales. Losing Caerphilly weakens its majority in the Senedd and makes it harder to pass the national budget. It also puts UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in a difficult position, as his party faces growing competition from both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK across Britain.

Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan said Labour had received a clear message from voters. "Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people's lives has not been quick enough. We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will come back stronger," she said.

Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies of the Labour Party admitted that the party must reflect on its defeat but rejected claims that Labour's time was over. "Some people are now writing us off. I have to paraphrase Mark Twain, rumours about death are greatly exaggerated," he said. "There have been occasions before where Wales has lost seats that are deep red and on those occasions we've come back having listened and come back with a compelling vision for people that is better than the doom and discord of people like Reform."

He said Labour needs to refocus on "bread-and-butter issues" such as the cost of living, job creation, and opportunities for young people.

Changing Era

During the campaign, immigration became a headline issue, even though migration policy is controlled by the UK government, not Wales. Only about 3% of people in Caerphilly were born outside the UK. Analysts believe local concerns, such as healthcare and education, played a bigger role in Labour's defeat.

Reform UK's image was also damaged after its former Welsh leader Nathan Gill admitted to bribery charges related to pro-Russian statements he made while serving in the European Parliament.

Recent opinion polls show Plaid Cymru narrowly leading Reform UK ahead of next year's national elections in Wales, with Labour now far behind. Labour's popularity fell sharply after a donations scandal forced former First Minister Vaughan Gething to resign last year.

For Plaid Cymru, the Caerphilly victory represents a breakthrough. For Labour, it is a warning that its century-long dominance in Wales is slipping, and that a new political era may be emerging.