West may be defeated if Ukraine's counteroffensive fails, expert says
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A UK expert reveals that Ukraine failing in its counteroffensive would reflect a resounding defeat for the West, which could include territorial concessions.
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Ukrainian servicemen ride atop on an APC at the frontline near Bakhmut, Donetsk region, June 29, 2023 (AP)
The Western-backed Kiev government may be forced to agree to make territorial concessions to Russia, marking a "devastating defeat" for the West that had thrown much of its weight behind it, an expert from the British Civitas thinks tank, Robert Clark, said Wednesday in a piece for The Telegraph.
"If Kiev fails in its battlefield endeavors to split that land bridge, and retake much of its own territory by winter, then vocal calls of territorial concessions for marginal political outcomes will likely become far more prevalent," Clark wrote.
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He explained this would happen as "so-called 'war fatigue' begins to bite, international stockpiles of equipment and ammunition wither and politicians begin to worry about domestic budgets ahead of national elections," he added.
"Governments across the west must be prepared for the grim prospect of territorial concessions, the British expert underlined.
He explained that the counteroffensive has been going on for two months, running into a number of major problems in the process as the West fails to deliver the equipment and arms it had pledged to.
The Western deliveries are more than late after it was urged to deliver progressively heavier weapons, including tanks, drones, and fighter jets.
Ukraine has been hyping its counteroffensive attack, since last year. Although the attack was intended for spring, it was moved to the summer after Ukraine blamed the delay on a lack of weapons.
The expert's sentiment mirrors that of Ukraine's, as the senior advisor of the Ukrainian President, Mikhail Podolyak, said in June that Russia built a defense line while Ukraine was convincing Western partners to provide the necessary weapons, essentially blaming the West for Moscow's success.
"The time lost in convincing our partners to provide the necessary weapons is reflected in the specific Russian fortifications built during this period, the deeply dug defense line, and the system of minefields. Breaking the Russian front today requires a reasonable and balanced approach," Podolyak wrote in a Twitter post.
Going back to Clark, he underlined that the counteroffensive, a "grueling endeavor", would need more time "than the occasionally impatient international audience was prepared to wait for."
This mirrors what was claimed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who underlined that despite the fact that Ukraine's counteroffensive is moving more slowly than anticipated, Ukraine continues to reject the option of freezing the battle.
"No matter how far we advance in our counter-offensive, we will not agree to a frozen conflict because that is war, that is a prospectless development for Ukraine," Zelensky told the BBC while admitting that the counteroffensive's progress has been "slower than desired."
"Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now. It's not," he said.
The Washington Post said that Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines of the counteroffensive in Ukraine are paying "a heavy price."
All this comes despite Ukrainian senior security official Oleksiy Danilov saying the long-anticipated counteroffensive was ready for commencement.
