West's hegemony wanes as goals in Ukraine, Gaza out of reach

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Modern Diplomacy
18 Jan 2024 19:39

The worst-case scenarios once envisioned by the West in the war on Gaza and the conflict in Ukraine are now becoming the most probable outcomes.

Supporters burn representations of Israeli, US, England, and French flags during a protest against Israeli airstrikes on Gaza, to show solidarity with the Palestinian people, in Karachi, Pakistan, Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023 (AP Photo/Ikram Suri)

An op-ed by writer Sarah Neumann for Modern Diplomacy on Thursday stated that Western hegemony over the South is dwindling as the influence of rivals increases.

Neumann pointed out that the dominant trends do not indicate substantial wins ahead of time.

With war fatigue hampering Kiev, the prospect of Trump's re-election, and prolonged Israeli aggression on Gaza despite alleged pressures on the part of the US and the EU to push for a ceasefire, the passage of time thus far appears to be favoring Russia and the resistance in Palestine, Neumann says, warning that if these trends continue to persist, this year may see the West grapples with the consequences of these losses.

Neumann points out that Ukraine faces worsening conditions as Russia advances, driven by relentless warfare, Western fatigue in supporting Ukraine, and delayed weapon deliveries. Russia feels threatened by Finland's NATO entry, Sweden's potential membership, and doubts about NATO's sustained support under a potential Trump re-election.

Ukraine drifts from reclaiming Russian-annexed lands, allowing Russia to approach its goals of safeguarding national security from NATO's expansion. This outcome strengthens Russia's influence, diminishes NATO and Europe's credibility, and weakens their influence in Eastern Europe to a historic low.

Meanwhile, "Israel's" equipment advantage won't lead it to achieve its claimed objective of annihilating the resistance in Gaza. Prolonged warfare and "Israel's" violations of international laws will inevitably intensify global pressure, particularly from the Global South and Muslim communities which have been urging a swift end to the bloodshed.

This will highlight Western double standards between Ukraine and Palestine, diminishing the West's normative and value credibility. While the US may retain some level of influence with Arab countries, Europe's relations with the Middle East will suffer significant harm.

The worst-case scenarios once envisioned by the West in these two wars are now becoming the most probable outcomes, Neumann says. Europe and the West's nightmare is unfolding due to US hegemony and its own inertia. The shift in the US strategy towards Russia and China, from deterrence to containment, has undermined Western deterrence and failed to contain Russia and China.

Russia is nearing a significant victory, and China has positioned itself as the leader of the global south. Anything short of Ukraine's victory and the destruction of the Palestinian resistance signifies the West's defeat in its geopolitical struggle with Russia and China, a struggle already lost on the normative and narrative front.

In sum, Europe is facing the repercussions of its reliance on the US and its hegemonic ambitions. The cost this time will be unprecedented as it slowly erodes Europe's reputation and influence globally and within its own continent.

This narrative echoes Europe's recent failures stemming from blindly following Washington. However, this time, Europeans would be wise to consider the Chinese proverb: "If you make a mistake and do not correct it, this is called a mistake," and avoid once again paying the price for US ambitions.