Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to embark on his first European tour in five years, with visits planned to France, Hungary, and Serbia.

This visit coincides with efforts from China and the EU to prevent a trade conflict, amid escalating tensions fueled by EU anti-subsidy investigations and what the EU perceives as concerns over espionage, Ukraine, and Taiwan.
 
Xi's itinerary begins in Paris, where he is scheduled to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Monday.

“The Chinese leadership is pretty clear about what they want,” says Abigaël Vasselier, the director of foreign relations at Merics, a German thinktank focused on China as quoted by The Guardian.

Vasselier further highlighted that Xi's primary agenda would revolve around advocating against the EU's anti-subsidy investigations, with a specific emphasis on electric vehicles (EVs), and working to stabilize the bilateral relationship.

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In September, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made remarks widely interpreted as directed at China, expressing concerns about global markets being saturated with inexpensive electric cars artificially subsidized by states. Beijing has strongly opposed this probe, viewing it as unjust and politically driven.

Recently, the European Commission's trade commissioner suggested that tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) might be implemented by June, following the initiation of an investigation into state assistance for electric car production in China. It is worth noting that any measures must be implemented by July 4.

China “cannot afford to have more and more restrictions to the European market”, Vasselier said as quoted by The Guardian, but at the same time, “China does not have an offer for Europe at this point."

The last face-to-face meeting between Macron, von der Leyen, and Xi occurred in April last year when the European leaders traveled to Beijing. Macron, accompanied by a sizable business delegation, secured 18 cooperation agreements between French and Chinese companies during that visit. His statement to reporters, suggesting that Europe should not blindly follow America's stance on the Taiwan issue, sparked controversy.

The big picture

The EU's probe into suspected state aid in the automotive sector is part of a broader set of investigations launched by Brussels into imports to Europe, spanning medical equipment and wind turbines. These products are being sold at significantly lower prices compared to those manufactured in Europe, a sector where Europe has traditionally held dominance. China contends that these trade investigations are driven by political motives and warns that consumers would ultimately suffer the most in a tariff war.

During his visit, Xi will also meet with one of his strongest allies in Europe, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Over recent years, relations between China and Hungary have significantly strengthened. In February, China proposed enhancing law enforcement cooperation with Hungary, expanding their already close ties from economic collaboration to a security partnership. This move reportedly raised alarms in other EU nations. Hungary currently serves as Huawei's largest hub outside China, and it is set to host the inaugural European factory of the carmaker BYD in the near future.

A highly significant part of the itinerary will be Xi's visit to Belgrade, particularly significant as it falls around the 25th anniversary of the US bombing of the Chinese embassy in the Serbian capital. This tragic event resulted in the loss of three Chinese journalists and sparked widespread anti-US sentiment in China.

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