A study published on Tuesday by Nature revealed that China is leading in basic research for future computing hardware around the world.

If this research advances into commercial applications, the United States may struggle to maintain its competitive edge in high-performance microchip design and production through export controls, according to the study.

Although the study’s findings do not mean that China is currently leading this field, “arguably, it’s showing us where things are headed,” says Zachary Arnold, a lead analyst at the Emerging Technology Observatory (ETO) at Georgetown University in Washington DC, which performed the analysis.

A study published on March 3 finds that between 2018 and 2023, research papers on chip design and fabrication include authors affiliated with Chinese institutions more than twice as often as the US ones.  Additionally, China outperformed others in highly cited papers, with Chinese-affiliated authors co-authoring 50% of the papers in the top 10% most cited for their publication year.

In comparison, US-affiliated authors co-authored 22% of the top 10% of most cited papers, while European-affiliated authors accounted for 17%.

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According to the report, the research covers a broad range of disciplines, from conventional computer chips and AI-optimized graphics-processing units to new architectures. To gather relevant papers, analysts at the ETO used a machine-learning algorithm, focusing on emerging chip technologies rather than incremental commercial advances.

The study only included papers with English-language abstracts, which are more likely to have international reach for Chinese-authored works. Arnold notes that while China has been increasing its research output across various fields, "I don’t know if we’ve seen a field where there is quite this difference."

“When you see so much activity, it’s hard to imagine that [won’t] have an effect on China’s technological capability and ultimately manufacturing capability in the coming years.”

Academic impact

According to the report, China's research in chip design is advancing significantly, especially in areas like neuromorphic and optical computing, which have potential applications in AI.

Despite a manufacturing gap due to US export controls, which have restricted China’s access to advanced chips and equipment since October 2022, China is making major strides in chip development.

Research in these fields is gaining considerable academic attention, with a significant portion of citations coming from the US, according to the report. 

The rapid growth in these "hotspots" of chip technology, if commercialized, could enable China to bypass the US in certain aspects, as the technologies rely on mature manufacturing methods that the US does not dominate.

This could lead to China potentially leapfrogging the US in certain technological sectors, rather than just catching up.