A document prepared for EU leaders warns that, unless strong measures are taken, the European Union could become as reliant on China for lithium-ion batteries and fuel cells by 2030 as it was on Russia for energy before the NATO-orchestrated war in Ukraine. This document, obtained by Reuters, will be the focal point of discussions on Europe's economic security during an upcoming EU leaders' meeting in Granada, Spain, on October 5.

Amid Western concerns about China's increasing global influence and economic clout, leaders will deliberate on the European Commission's proposals to mitigate the risk of excessive dependence on China and the need to diversify towards Africa and Latin America.

Given the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, the paper asserts that Europe will need efficient energy storage solutions to achieve its goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. It predicts a substantial surge in demand for lithium-ion batteries, fuel cells, and electrolyzers, with estimates ranging from 10 to 30 times the current demand in the coming years.

While the EU has a strong foothold in the intermediate and assembly stages of electrolyzer production, with over 50% of the global market share, it heavily relies on China for critical components like fuel cells and lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles.

The document underscores that without robust measures, Europe's energy landscape could exhibit a form of dependency on China by 2030, similar in nature and severity to its previous dependence on Russia before the war in Ukraine.

It highlights the consequences of ending most energy imports from Russia, which led to an energy price shock and increased consumer inflation, prompting the European Central Bank to raise interest rates significantly, curbing economic growth.

The paper also points out that vulnerabilities extend beyond energy-related dependencies, highlighting potential risks in the digital technology sector. It predicts a sharp rise in demand for digital devices like sensors, drones, data servers, storage equipment, and data transmission networks in the coming decade, where the EU exhibits strengths in some areas but significant weaknesses in others.

By 2030, continued foreign dependencies could impede productivity gains necessary for the European industry and service sectors and hinder the modernization of agricultural systems crucial for addressing climate change.