Who will succeed Pope Francis? AI chatbots weigh in before white smoke
5 Min Read
Leading AI models, including ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok-2, have weighed in on the papal race, predicting a tight contest between Cardinal Pietro Parolin and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle.
-
Faithfuls gather in St. Peter's Square as the door of the Sistine Chapel is closed to start the Conclave at the Vatican, Wednesday, May 7, 2025. (AP)
As the College of Cardinals enters the Sistine Chapel this Wednesday to elect the next pope, speculation runs high, not just among Vatican-watchers but also in the world of artificial intelligence.
In a digital experiment blending theology and tech, Euronews consulted leading AI models, OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Google’s Gemini 1.5, Elon Musk's Grok-2, and DeepSeek, to predict who might emerge as the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church. The outcome? A virtual consensus split between two main contenders, each symbolising divergent paths for the future of the Church.
Three of the AI platforms, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok-2, highlighted Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy as the frontrunner. Described by Grok-2 as the Vatican’s "deputy pope", Parolin has served as Secretary of State since 2013, overseeing diplomatic affairs and global outreach for the Holy See. Gemini notes his deep involvement in high-level negotiations, including nuclear non-proliferation, and his efforts to rekindle dialogue on the Palestinian issue.
Though he is seen as a “continuity candidate” in line with Pope Francis’ diplomatic style, Grok-2 points to his conservative approach as a possible wedge issue. Still, both Grok-2 and Gemini estimate his chances of election at 30–31%, citing his experience and seniority; he’s the most senior cardinal bishop under 80, a critical factor since electors must be under that age.
Rising alternative: Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, from the Philippines, emerges as a strong progressive choice. Often called the “Asian Francis", ChatGPT says he is admired for his inclusive approach. He’s widely seen as a voice for the marginalized and a natural heir to Pope Francis’ reformist agenda.
Tagle’s global appeal is underscored by his roots in Asia, home to a rapidly expanding Catholic population. Gemini emphasizes that many cardinals want the next pontiff to reflect this demographic shift. Grok-2 also praises his leadership as the former Archbishop of Manila and his work in the Vatican’s Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples.
ChatGPT gives Tagle a 35% chance of election but warns his odds could decline if the conclave prioritizes a European candidate to maintain institutional balance.
Compromise choices
Should consensus around Parolin or Tagle falter, several “compromise candidates” are on AI's shortlists.
Both Grok-2 and ChatGPT identify Jean-Marc Aveline, the Archbishop of Marseille, as a bridge-builder. Known for his interfaith outreach, particularly with Islam, Aveline’s relatively low profile and lack of entrenched Vatican ties might make him palatable to divided camps.
ChatGPT’s own list of compromise options includes Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, who was elevated to cardinal in 2023, a sign, it says, of Pope Francis’ trust. Pizzaballa is described as “ideologically balanced” and a figure who could unify both conservatives and reformers.
Other names floated include Jean-Claude Hollerich of Luxembourg, Cristóbal López Romero of Spain, and Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the DRC.
Outsiders and long shots
Gemini mentions Cardinal Mario Grech of Malta, citing his consensus-building role as Secretary of the Synod of Bishops. Meanwhile, Grok-2 throws support behind Matteo Zuppi, a moderate from Italy seen by many as a unifying figure.
Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary is also listed by Grok-2 as a potential conservative compromise, while ChatGPT and Gemini see him as a standard-bearer for the right.
Confusion among AI
Not all AI systems were convinced that Pope Francis is no longer in office. DeepSeek and Claude 3.7 Sonnet initially pushed back, citing outdated data cutoffs in mid to late 2024. When informed by reporters of the Pope’s passing in April 2025, DeepSeek cautiously acknowledged the possibility but framed its responses as speculative.
Still, DeepSeek offered a thoughtful analysis, arguing that if the conclave chooses to reflect the Church’s demographic shift to the Global South, Tagle, Nzapalainga (CAR), or Besungu (DRC) could rise. For a more traditional approach, it highlighted Parolin, Schonborn (Austria), and Hollerich.
Claude, when corrected, acknowledged the sede vacante period and gave a general overview of the conclave process but declined to forecast a frontrunner.
The AI models agree on one thing: papal conclaves are notoriously unpredictable. As Gemini warns, the cardinals could very well rally behind a dark horse. But for now, the digital world points to a tight race between Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s seasoned diplomat, and Luis Antonio Tagle, the progressive voice from the Global South.
