A balloon intrusion jeopardizes peace between US and China

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In 2023, the sole factor upsetting a probable US China rapprochement is a balloon intrusion into US airspace. The extraordinary event that took place as the balloon travelled through Alaska, across Canada and entered the US State of Montana on the 1st of February 2023 is termed an ‘civilian weather monitoring flight’ by Beijing. It flew 60,000 feet and was in incredible proximity to the state of Montana’s nuclear missile sites. Yet, the furor that followed with the US decision to bring the balloon down using a fighter jet off the coast of South Carolina is completely unwarranted. 

The diplomatic response is equally uncalled for as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken postponed his much-anticipated trip to Beijing. What is clear however, is that a balloon with a contested identity is now the latest justification provided by Washington D.C. to sour ties with China and adopt a hegemonic stance of defiance which is not conducive to conflict resolution. The bizarre nature of the incident and the reaction that followed is also symptomatic of the US foreign policy-making process which is highly transactional and will seek to demonize, downgrade and suspend engagement with any state over what it perceives to be a threat to its national security. American history for example, is replete with instances of mere suspicions, alarmist interpretations and false intelligence translating into knee jerk reactions which have taken a huge toll on international peace. Think of the Bush administration’s decision to invade Iraq in 2003 on the premise of intelligence reports claiming that the then-Baghdad regime carried WMDs (Weapons of Mass Destruction). The real objective however, was to overthrow the regime with WMD intelligence proving illusory. 

While a balloon incursion into US space from China may not cause a direct military conflict, the response from Secretary of State Blinken on the cusp of possible re-engagement with China was disappointing. He called China’s Director of Central Foreign Affairs Office, Wang Yi, and made it clear that the balloon incursion was an irresponsible act, a clear violation of US sovereignty and international law which undermined the purpose of the trip. Blink en’s confirmation also dismissed China’s Foreign Ministry’s confirmation that the balloon was a civilian weather airship intended for scientific research which was blown of course. It was merely accidental; however, Pentagon officials chose to quickly dismiss Beijing’s apology which are bad optics for the US-China peace process. 

In ideal circumstances, a statement of regret from an adversary should suffice and peace talks should continue unabated for better coordination and cooperation. Even nuclear-armed South Asian adversaries Pakistan and India chose not to escalate when New Delhi accidentally fired an unarmed missile into Mian Channu in Pakistan despite the suspension of dialogue and breakdowns of confidence-building measures between the two sides. Yet there is a concerted attempt on part of the Washington D.C. establishment to discredit China’s stance on the balloon with hard-line, top Republicans on the Senate Intelligence Committee such as Marco Rubio equating China’s sincere regret with a deliberate attempt by Beijing to humiliate the United States. Rubio went on to claim that it’s not coincidental that the balloon incursion is taking place right before Blinken’s visit to Beijing which is a negative interpretation of Beijing’s intentions. 

Perhaps the United States should hark back into recent history and point out factors that caused breakdowns in Sino-US ties. One should consider how the Biden administration exchanged harsh rebukes with their Chinese counterparts in Anchorage, Alaska in March 2021 which involved Secretary of State Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. Talks broke down over American insistence that China’s actions in Hong Kong, Taiwan, along with cyber-attacks and economic coercion must stop for peace to prevail. In response, China legitimately accused Washington of expanding its military might in the South China Sea and leveraging its financial supremacy to suppress other countries. The fact that engagement with China came with conditionalities, demonization and denigration of Beijing’s activities is precisely why bilateral ties broke down. 

The United States also has limited historical arsenal to justify that it came under a surveillance attack. Washington D.C. has launched several surveillance operations across the globe and has gathered intelligence and pushed its agenda on sensitive issues ranging from sovereign nuclear programs to political unrest. Despite such historical baggage, cooperation with Washington D.C. has in some cases, continued unabated despite the negative role that CIA operatives have played in domestic societies. From domestic wiretapping, human rights violations, extraordinary renditions, and counterintelligence failures, the CIA has a less-than-impressive resume. As per declassified information, the CIA played a significant role in the 1965 Indonesia massacres which was executed by the military in Jakarta during the 1965 coups as admitted by President Joko Widodo. Even a year after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2022, US Congress openly pushed for the CIA and other intelligence agencies to make China a top priority instead. The history is definitely checkered. 

Yet despite these undeniable realities, China has desired for amiable ties with the United States based on mutual respect, tolerance, equity and fairness. Beijing has been repeatedly repulsed by the United States seeking to engage with China but violating red lines that are attached to its state sovereignty. For Blinken to suspend dialogue with China over a balloon is the latest yet bizarre example of the United States not desiring peace.