After Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan: Implications for Peace in the Region

The present study investigates the implications for Global Peace after the Taliban control of Afghanistan.

  • After Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan: Implications for Peace in the Region

The present study investigates the implications for Global Peace after the Taliban control of Afghanistan. The World became astonished by the speed that took the Taliban to control Afghanistan without waging war. All of the major cities had fallen to the insurgents without a fight, and they now rule the whole country. What kind of global ramifications might be predicted if the Taliban maintain or do not maintain peace in Afghanistan? This is a big concern.

Analysis revealed that after the withdrawal of US forces, a possible collapsed Peace Process on the globe would intensify violence in Afghanistan. Significantly, it might increase the risk of triggering the launch of a  regional war. Furthermore, it could trigger humanitarian crises too. The current situation may increase the number of refugees and displaced persons, as with 2.7M Afghan refugees that have already make Afghanistan the second-largest refugee population, and lastly would increase the possibility of regional friction between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan. (Dawn, 2021).

Reports suggest that the current situation in Afghanistan has serious consequences on Pak-Afghan relations. Neither Afghanistan nor Pakistan can afford a policy of hostility. Pakistan cannot get energy or gas from Central Asia without bypassing Afghanistan. The outcry in Kabul following the closure of the Torkham border revealed the extent of the Afghan market's reliance on Pakistani goods. Pakistan has accommodated over a million Afghan refugees during the last years. Afghanistan’s Peace process would help Pakistan to send back refugees to Afghanistan, resulting in huge economic relief. 

China is an important stakeholder in Afghanistan due to its national security concerns. The relations between Afghanistan and China have been mostly friendly throughout history, and their trade relations date back to the Han dynasty at the time of the ancient Silk Road. The Afghan peace process would enhance China’s influence as Afghanistan is already strategically important to Beijing. It would increase China’s investment in BRI and help to expand (CPEC) projects in Pakistan via Afghanistan into central Asia. 

Russia is another major country in the region when it comes to the Afghan peace process. In the past, it was also involved in Afghanistan. Likewise, Russia's relationship with America is on the decline, “as is its relationship with the United States” (Altaf, 2019). Russia gains certain privileges after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, but it also faces more uncertainty and risk. This reflects Russia's primary goal in preventing any spillover of Afghan instability and Islamist extremism into neighboring Central Asian countries such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, which might pose a terrorist threat to Russia (Hill, 2021).

This study concludes that the Afghan peace process has many regional and international stakeholders. This wouldn’t be possible without the active involvement of these stakeholders’ peace in Afghanistan. The Taliban government has to understand that living in isolation will not be beneficial for them. So, to make the peace process more sustainable, a negotiating and dialogue process is required by bringing countries like Afghanistan, the US, China, Russia, and Pakistan together. Without peace, all these countries won’t be able to aggrandize their power to pursue their national interest in internal and external affairs. 

The opinions mentioned in this article do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Al mayadeen, but rather express the opinion of its writer exclusively.
Ruqiya Anwar

Researcher, Analyst