As the United States President, Joe Biden, focuses on developing post-war strategies for Gaza, it is worth noting that a substantial Arab and Muslim voting bloc in key swing states has the potential to impact his chances of being reelected in the upcoming presidential election next year.

The potential repercussions of growing discontent among Arab and Muslim Americans pose a significant risk to President Biden's prospects for reelection in several swing states during the 2024 election. These states are home to crucial pockets of Arab American and Muslim American voting groups who are dejected over Biden's pro-Israel postures in the ensuing bloodbath in Gaza.

The rebellion among American Arab and Muslim citizens against Biden's anti-Palestine policies has kicked off just as his administration has been quietly devising a master plan that envisions a 'reinvented Palestinian Authority' taking charge of the Gaza Strip once the Israeli brutalities in Gaza come to an end.

#AbandonBiden Coalition

Last week, a group of Muslim leaders from key battleground states in the US, including Michigan, Minnesota, Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, gathered in Dearborn, Michigan, to put their heads together. They aimed to tackle the pro-Israel stance of the US administration head-on and devise a game plan to push back against these narratives with full force.

The leaders from the US states holding all the cards decided to kick off the #AbandonBiden National Coalition after the bigwigs from these states realized they had enough clout to shake things up in US politics, particularly when it comes to Israel and Palestine.

The coalition's main goal is to throw a wrench in President Joe Biden's reelection plans, as they suspect he had a hand in the Gaza massacre during Tel Aviv's ground offensive. They believe he turned a blind eye to the targeting of innocent civilians, even children and newborns. The campaign's reach and chances of success are still up in the air. However, its establishment is a clear sign that Biden is feeling the heat as the pressure cooker of politics gets turned up due to the ongoing Israeli human rights violations in the Gaza Strip. Muslim and Arab leaders have been beating the drum for the president to call a time-out for nearly two months. With the death toll in Gaza reaching sky-high numbers, this newly formed coalition is pulling out all the stops to put the pedal to the metal and apply some serious pressure.

Image-building measures

The Biden administration officials have undertaken a strategic effort to position themselves as impartial mediators and regain the support they previously held in the Muslim world. This endeavor involves the discreet formulation of a comprehensive, multi-stage strategy aimed at establishing an enhanced Palestinian Authority that would eventually assume control of the Gaza Strip.

According to media accounts, American authorities perceive a particular course of action as the most favorable among a limited range of unfavorable alternatives for a region where the Israeli military campaign has resulted in severe damage to infrastructure, significant loss of Palestinian lives, and the displacement of over 1.5 million individuals. The US is positioning itself in a manner that suggests these recommendations may lead to a potential clash with the Israeli government. According to reports, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed opposition to the aforementioned recommendations, indicating his reluctance to allow the Palestinian Authority to have a future role in Gaza. The majority of Israeli leaders exhibit a reluctance to engage in extensive discourse over this matter.

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Pressure mounts on Biden

Muslim Americans and certain Democratic Party activists are determined to rally the troops and make sure that millions of Muslim voters keep their wallets closed and their ballots on the shelf when it comes to President Joe Biden's 2024 reelection campaign. They want him to pull out all the stops and swiftly secure a ceasefire in Gaza.

The National Muslim Democratic Council, consisting of Democratic Party bigwigs from swing states that hold the key to the election, like Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, urged Biden to pull some strings with the Israelis and play peacemaker.

Earlier last month, in a heartfelt message called "2023 Ceasefire Ultimatum," the Muslim leaders vowed to rally Muslim voters to "refrain from giving their stamp of approval, backing, or votes to any candidate who champions the Israeli offensive against the Palestinian people."

"Your administration's unwavering backing, from financial aid to weaponry, has been a major contributor to the ongoing violence that is resulting in innocent lives being lost and has shattered the confidence of those who once believed in your leadership," said the letter.

Keith Ellison, the ex-US Representative turned Minnesota's attorney general and the trailblazing first Muslim elected to Congress, along with Representative Andre Carson of Indiana, proudly stand as the organization's esteemed founding co-chairs.

The letter is the newest straw that broke the camel's back for Arab and Muslim American communities, who are boiling with anger and frustration over Biden's silence on Israeli assault on the Gaza Strip.

Representative Rashida Tlaib, a Palestinian-American lawmaker from Michigan, dropped a bombshell with a 90-second video on X, where she passionately criticized Biden's backing of what she labeled as "Israel's genocidal campaign in Palestine." To make matters crystal clear, she boldly declared, "Do not bank on our vote in 2024." Basim Elkarra, executive director of the Sacramento Valley Council on American-Islamic Relations, was quoted by the media as saying that Muslim votes could be the bee's knees for Biden in his 2024 quest for a second term.

How much weight does the Muslim community carry at the polls?

Last week, Hassan Abdel Salam, a member of the #AbandonBiden National Coalition and a professor at the University of Minnesota, made this claim at a press conference. "In the immediate rear, Biden ought to have observed 111 electoral votes." Last time, Biden triumphed with a score of just 74. Out of the 16 electoral votes in Michigan, Biden could clinch by a hair's breadth of only 2.6 percent in 2020.

Based on data from the Pew Research Center, the Muslim American population is estimated to be approximately 3.45 million individuals. The Arab American Institute's report indicates that 59% of Arab Americans supported Biden in the 2020 presidential race. Nevertheless, recent polling data suggests a decline in this level of support.

The Arab American Institute (AAI) commissioned John Zogby Strategies to conduct a comprehensive nationwide poll targeting Arab American voters in light of the recent escalation of violence and egregious human rights abuses in Gaza. The subsequent content comprises the essential summary points.

There has been a significant decline in Arab American voter support for President Biden in the forthcoming election, with a notable dip from 59% to 17%, representing a 42% reduction compared to the previous year. The approval rating of President Biden has experienced a significant decline, plummeting from 74% in 2020 to 29% in 2023. This decline is indicative of broader patterns observed among the American populace. Arab Americans are a significant voting bloc in various pivotal election states, such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, where the forthcoming 2024 election will witness intense competition.

A significant majority, comprising two-thirds, of Arab Americans hold an unfavorable perception of President Biden's handling of the ongoing conflict in Palestine. Since April 2023, before the onset of the region's bloodbath, there has been an 18% decline in his favorable rating among Arab Americans.

A significant proportion of Arab Americans hold the view that the United States should advocate for a cessation of hostilities in the ongoing crisis, aligning with recent surveys conducted among the general American population.

The collective repercussions of the unfavorable perspectives towards the President and his programs are evident not only through a significant decline in anticipated voter backing in 2024 but also through a profound influence on party inclination. This survey represents a significant milestone in the 26-year history of Arab American voter polling, as it is the first instance where a majority of respondents did not express a preference for the Democratic Party.