Amid the intensifying trade war between the United States and China, fierce competition is unfolding as both nations vie for control over essential minerals and strategic military sites in South Asia. Washington is making concerted efforts to counter Beijing's influence while seeking to re-establish its presence in the mineral-rich regions of Afghanistan.

Following the withdrawal of NATO forces from Kabul in 2021, Beijing has notably increased its presence in South Asia, concentrating on resource extraction and the development of military installations. China maintains a notably cordial relationship with the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan, alongside its ties with Pakistan, which is currently facing a significant Chinese debt exceeding $29 billion.

Does Washington plan to control Bagram Airbase? 

Washington is currently making strategic adjustments to its foreign policy goals, placing greater emphasis on dismantling the primary supply chain of Chinese industrial raw materials and reclaiming strategically important locations that were vacated in 2021. With the Trump administration now in power, efforts are underway to reclaim the Bagram airbase from the Taliban, which the administration alleges is currently under Chinese control, a claim that was forcefully refuted by the Taliban leadership.

In a decisive move during his inaugural cabinet meeting in early March, President Trump announced the US' intention to reclaim Bagram Airbase. The strategic decision seems to be to monitor Chinese nuclear missile facilities located just an hour's travel from the base. In a recent statement, Trump addressed the recovery of US military equipment, which encompasses rifles, armored vehicles, helicopters, and various military gadgets with a total value exceeding US$ 7.12 billion.

Trump contended that the US was recommissioning the base not due to Afghanistan but rather to undermine China's operational control over it. The president revealed that “a small force will remain stationed at Bagram.” However, a Taliban spokesperson later strongly refuted that the airbase was under Chinese control.

During the meeting, President Trump highlighted that the US abandoned a vast amount of military equipment valued at billions, which includes an astonishing 777,000 rifles and 70,000 armored vehicles. He stated that Afghanistan has now emerged as one of the world's leading suppliers of military equipment. He criticized the previous US leadership for abandoning these assets, stating, “Can you believe we are shelling out billions of dollars to Afghanistan? Despite the criticism, we ultimately abandoned all that military equipment.”

The US-Taliban reconciliation began with Trump’s ascendancy to the White House following the US elections last year. After quite a stretch since August 2021, a top-notch US delegation, headed by the savvy Afghanistan expert Zalmay Khalilzad, touched down in Kabul in March, apparently to hash out the nitty-gritty for the release of detained American tourist George Glezmann.

Taking the bull by the horns, Khalilzad and US hostage envoy Adam Boehler had a heart-to-heart with Afghanistan's foreign minister and other Taliban officials to chew the fat. As the saying goes, the proof is in the pudding, and it appears that the Taliban's Foreign Ministry has chosen to claim that Mr. Glezmann's release was "on humanitarian grounds" and "a goodwill gesture."

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Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was singing a different tune, labeling the deal a "positive and constructive step." It seems both parties were treading on thin ice in this complex geopolitical environment. Qatar went the extra mile for the American delegation's visit to Kabul and played the middleman in Glezmann's release.

Later, Afghanistan's Foreign Ministry stated in a post on X that the deal demonstrated "Afghanistan's willingness to genuinely engage all parties, especially the US, on the foundation of mutual respect and shared interests."

President Trump again reiterated his resolve to reclaim Bagram Airbase last week while speaking at the National Day of Prayer at the White House.

What does Pakistan think of the US strategy?

On its part, Pakistan has repeatedly claimed that the militants, sneaking into Pakistan's borders from Afghanistan, possess high-caliber, sophisticated US arms that were left behind by Washington and NATO forces while they were leaving the country in 2021. Islamabad asserts that it has irrefutable evidence that the Tehreek-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and several factions of Baloch separatists are currently using these weapons. Since the TTP and Baloch separatists have intensified their operations against the Pakistani establishment, the relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have reached a critical point.

In Pakistan, concerns are growing about the potential for the US to assume control of the Bagram airbase in Kabul. As of now, neither Kabul nor Washington has issued any official statements about the situation. Reports from Afghan sources and social media indicate that the Taliban leadership has given Washington the green light to use the strategic airport.

The decision could provide an opportunity for US forces to have a look at the military formation of Iran, Pakistan, and China. Reports of a US C-17 aircraft executing a clandestine landing at Bagram Air Base, allegedly carrying the CIA's deputy chief and military equipment, are circulating on social media. The US military's activities in Afghanistan have garnered significant attention, particularly considering President Trump's recent ultimatum directed at Tehran. Such attention prompts a deeper examination of the underlying motivations driving these actions by the US.

The expanding relationship between India and the US could persuade the Taliban to permit Washington to assume control of Bagram Airbase in exchange for assistance, investments, and upkeep for sophisticated weaponry.

Some critics contend that the US might utilize Bagram as a base for intervention in Pakistan should political instability pose a risk to its nuclear arsenal.

US plans to chop up China’s mineral supply line

Washington's geopolitical strategies in South Asia are directed to disrupt China's supply chain for minerals such as lithium. China's stronghold on vital mineral supply chains hinders the progress of the green energy transition in the US and Europe. High-capacity batteries, which power electric vehicles and store renewable energy, rely heavily on the lithium that is abundantly available in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan possesses a wealth of copper, nickel, cobalt, and rare earth elements, all crucial components in the energy transition process. China currently holds a substantial portion of mineral processing capacity and is increasing its investments in downstream operations to sustain its dominance over these and other minerals.

Afghanistan's substantial natural resource reserves, which hold significant potential, partly contribute to the US' renewed interest in the country. Afghanistan possesses huge mineral reserves that remain largely untapped, with an estimated value ranging from $1 to $3 trillion.

A 2019 map of Afghanistan's mining sector estimated that the country holds significant reserves essential for the energy transition, including 2.3 billion metric tons of iron ore, 30 million metric tons of copper, and 1.4 million metric tons of rare earth materials. The country is thought to possess considerable lithium reserves, possibly competing with Bolivia, which holds the largest reserves in the world.