The US seems to be on the verge of losing yet another ally in South Asia, as Modi appears ready to enhance India's involvement in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) by forging closer ties with both Russia and China, signaling to Washington that its backing for the Pentagon and "Israel" is approaching its conclusion.

Analysts have assessed that Washington’s tariff strategies in South Asia prompted New Delhi to diligently work on mending its relationship with Beijing, despite the persistent border tensions, while also rejuvenating its historical and well-established connections with Moscow.

On Sunday, August 31, Modi met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Tianjin, northern China's port city and the site of a summit for the 10-member SCO group. Xi conveyed to Modi that the two most populous nations should embrace a partnership rather than a competitive stance, suggesting that the "dragon" and the "elephant" ought to unite. Modi replied in the same tone to Xi, saying that their dedication to advancing their relationship was founded on mutual respect, trust, and an awareness of each other's sensitivities.

Why is New Delhi aggrieved?

There is a significant reason behind the recent changes in Indian policies toward the US President Trump's imposition of a hefty 25% tariff on Indian imports, which skyrocketed to 50% just as the SCO summit in China began, presenting a troubling picture for India. Trump cited the nation's dealings with Russia as the spark that ignited this decision. India has been a key player in the game of Russian oil, with over half of its military gear coming straight from Moscow's backyard.

Trump threw a wrench in the works by planning to impose a jaw-dropping 200% tax on pharmaceuticals coming into the country, throwing a curveball at the Indian economy. In response to what he perceives as their "anti-American" actions, he also imposed a 10% tax on BRICS member states.

Washington's policy is undergoing a shake-up, stirred by two notable but fleeting clashes with Iran and "Israel", as well as India and Pakistan, which have thrown the US-Western-led international order in jeopardy.

Just seven months ago, India was confidently entering Trump's second presidential term, with Modi being among the first world leaders to visit his "dear friend" at the White House.

"The Trump administration's decision to shift the production of Apple iPhones from India back to the US could be a contributing factor to India's decision to remain neutral," Jan Achakzai, a former Balochistan minister and a columnist on geostrategic changes, told Al Mayadeen English in an interview. India also rejected Trump’s oft-repeated claims that he brokered a ceasefire in its four-day conflict with neighboring Pakistan and was further infuriated when Trump hosted Pakistan’s powerful army chief at the White House in an unprecedented meeting weeks after slapping giant tariffs on Indian imports.

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Achakzai observed that India felt disgraced when Trump entertained an army chief whom they claimed had orchestrated troubles in the Indian part of Kashmir.

Taiwan-based author and analyst Dr. Ghulam Ali observes that he strongly doubts that the US ever truly realized that India would serve its interests in South Asia.

“Much of what we observed recently regarding US-India bonhomie was an attempt to curry favor with India; New Delhi tried to milk all cows but stuck to its national interests and strategic autonomy. In South Asia, the most trusted ally of the US establishment is the Pakistani military, which is always available," he explains.

Plenty of water has gone under the bridge since the first summit. It seems that a good number of SCO members, including the likes of China, India, and Russia, are now feeling the pinch of direct US tariffs. It's plain as day to all SCO members that the world, particularly the US, is shifting gears at breakneck speed, and they ought to seek out new avenues. This message hits the nail on the head for New Delhi.

Elucidating on the recent SCO summit and India-China hobnobbing, he said that in conclusion, while there is unlikely to be a significant breakthrough on the China-India border disputes anytime soon, the overall relationship is likely to maintain the momentum of improvement that began during the Xi-Modi Summit on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in October 2024 in Russia.

“Both Beijing and New Delhi have, in many areas, restored their relations to the pre-2020 situation and are likely to improve further," he adds.

Indian optics at SCO summit

Prime Minister Modi's participation in the SCO summit in China, following a seven-year break, demonstrates New Delhi's seriousness in abandoning Washington and stepping up its involvement as a crucial member of the China-Russia alliance. The leaders clearly drew a line between the oppressors and the oppressed nations in their speeches at the summit.

"Chinese President Xi Jinping advocates for equal and orderly multiploidization of the world, fostering inclusive economic globalization, and promoting the construction of a more just and equitable global governance system. The provision of two billion yuan ($280 million) in free assistance to member states this year, along with an additional 10 billion yuan in loans to an SCO banking consortium, is one of the major leaps toward promoting an egalitarian global order," Achakzai says.

India, unlike in the past, remained fully involved in the SCO proceedings and offered valuable input on several issues that were discussed at the summit.

Dr. Ali opined that there were two immediate and long-term reasons behind India’s efforts to repair relations with China and regain Russia's confidence. The immediate reason is the US tariff pressures under Trump. The long-term reason involves shifting geopolitics and India’s desire for strategic autonomy in its foreign policy.

“Despite over two decades of romance between the U.S. and India, New Delhi has never explicitly aligned itself with the US (anti-China) policy and has largely maintained its strategic autonomy. For the US, it is much easier to engage the Pakistani military than to gain India's cooperation," Ali says.

He added that following a tense relationship with China since 2017, particularly after June 2020, India’s economy faced some challenges, and the Indian commercial sector pressured Modi's government to tone down its rhetoric and stabilize relations with China. We must not forget that India’s normalization process with China began in October 2024, much earlier than even the US elections.