Tensions between India and Canada have reached a boiling point, triggering concerns about the future of their diplomatic relations. The dispute, which began over the allegations made by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau against India, has escalated into a diplomatic crisis with far-reaching implications and has already put the allies of both countries, especially the G7 Nations, in a tight spot.

The controversy started when Trudeau publicly blamed "agents of India" for the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, "a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil," and demanded India join the investigations.

India's External Affairs Ministry issued a formal statement condemning Trudeau's comments as "absurd and motivated," and subsequently suspended all types of visas for Canadian citizens.

The two countries have since then expelled respective senior diplomats. This exchange of hostilities threatens to hinder progress on key bilateral issues, including trade and other partnerships.

According to the reports, Canada’s allegations rely on the information it received from human intelligence, signals intelligence, and information provided by an ally within the Five Eyes intelligence network.

The Five Eyes network is an intelligence alliance comprising the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. The Five Eyes partners reportedly share intelligence, primarily in the form of electronic surveillance and signal intelligence, to enhance their collective ability to monitor and gather information on global threats, including espionage, terrorism, cyberattacks, and other security-related issues.

Experts believe that such a diplomatic rift is not good for India and Canada as both countries stand to lose "trust and inter-dependability" bilaterally as well as in the multilateral forums, and that "New Delhi and Ottawa should find a common ground to break the ice."

"The trade and people-to-people ties between the two countries are strong and putting that on back-burner owing to mere allegations isn’t fruitful for anyone here," said Professor Karori Singh, Emeritus Fellow and Former Director, South Asia Studies Centre, University of Rajasthan.

Canada has already paused the Free Trade Agreement negotiations with India in the first week of September.

The G7 countries mostly have remained silent over the issue so far, except the United States for whom Canada is an important ally and close neighbor.

John Kirby, the spokesperson for the US National Security Council, said that Washington, D.C. stands behind Canada's efforts of investigation into what he referred to as "grave allegations" and encouraged India to "actively cooperate in this inquiry."

According to the reports, India has been reaching out to its counterparts within the G7 to convey its perspective regarding Canada's accusations.

"Friends of Canada are reluctant to jump into this issue as India’s foreign policy is about mutual respect and moreso Canada hasn’t provided any credible information to India yet," Professor Singh said, adding that "India’s diplomatic row is issue-based which doesn’t amount to hostility, so G7 countries are walking with caution."

Professor Singh also cautioned that Canada should take India's concerns seriously and not allow space for anti-Indian elements seeking to disrupt India. He noted that India has repeatedly urged Canada to take action against elements advocating for a separate region in Punjab, known as Khalistan, and that addressing this issue could have prevented the current situation.

"India has time and again sought action from Canada over the elements that demand a separate region in Punjab, a separate Khalistan. If Canada had taken serious action, against them, such an issue would have never surfaced," he added.

The United States too is treading with caution in this issue and is cultivating strategic relations with India to challenge the rising Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Ayanangsha Maitra, a Ph.D. scholar in International Relations, indicated that India’s geopolitical positioning and its economic rise are surely factors that the West and G7 countries cannot ignore.

"India's stature in the world is increasing, our economy is on the rise, and there is political will and confident leadership to tackle the crisis," Mr Maitra said.

India's tit-for-tat move against Canada on the expulsion of a diplomat is simply retaliation as Canada did it first, he argued.

However, Mr Maitra pointed out that ups and downs are part of diplomacy between the two countries, but considered that it is in Canada’s interest to mend issues with India.

"I believe this is simply a phase between the two Nations and up and downs of part of relations. It will go away, without any mediation. It is in Canada's interest to mend ties with India as Canada needs India more than India needs Canada," he added.

"Most of the G7 countries are India's strategic partners; Canada is a member. India's geopolitical positioning, its market, the Human resources in the form of IT professionals etc makes it more important for any country," he concluded.