With the 18th G20 Summit just days away, India’s endeavor to bring consensus among the member countries and have a joint declaration at the end of the Summit is far from over. The deep division between the West, on one side, and Russia and China, on the other side, over various issues, particularly Ukraine, is holding back a consensus putting the outcome of the Summit in jeopardy.

“We are hopeful of bringing a consensus among all G20 members,” says India’s G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant as quoted by media in India.

Over a dozen G20 ministerial meetings from February this year held in various Indian states have failed to issue a consensus document. Instead, a "Chair's summary and outcome document" were released profiling the discussion in the meeting with both agreed part and non-agreed paragraphs.

This divergence stems from the persistent disagreement between Russia and Western nations regarding two critical paragraphs from the Bali Declaration on Ukraine.

Russia last year had agreed to the wording of the Ukraine war in the Bali Summit, however, it now wants a change in its language to include the effects of US sanctions on the world; a demand Western countries, particularly the G7 nations, oppose.

“Bali declaration cannot be repeated. Since the Bali declaration, a lot happened, the Nord Stream burst, serious other aggressions were made against Russia, energy and food crisis deepened due to sanctions from the United States,” says Russian Ambassador to India Denis Alipov while interacting with media at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of South Asia in New Delhi.

Bali Declaration included two paras on Ukraine and adherence to international laws consisting of different opinions with the Western countries "condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine" and other shades of opinion registering that "G20 is not for resolving security issues."

Ambassador Alipov insisted that if the Western countries "want to reflect Ukraine in the Joint declaration then they should be open to change the para, the Bali para, on Ukraine."

“Unfortunately, the Indian G20 presidency experiences very strong pressure from some countries and in Russian opinion hijacks the G20 agenda, making Ukraine one of the topics,” Ambassador Alipov added.

China’s objection to the inclusion of Ukraine is strongly based on the foundation of the G20 grouping. China says "G20 is not for geopolitics and such issues should be kept away from it."

But G7 countries, led by the United States, have been strongly deliberating the inclusion of "Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine" as part of the Joint Declaration.

The Western countries believe that geopolitics is part of the larger sphere of collaboration between the two countries, and, thus, it cannot be ignored.

Germany has unequivocally refused to endorse any document that overlooks Russia's aggressive actions in Ukraine. Jörg Kukies, Germany's representative for G20 affairs, emphasized in an interview for the Indian daily, The Mint, that Germany firmly disagreed with China's stance, which argued that the conflict in Ukraine should not be addressed within an economic-focused forum like the G20.

Since its establishment in 1999 and its elevation to a leaders' level summit in 2008, the G20 has always found consensus and issued a joint statement at the conclusion of the leaders’ summit. If this tradition fails to continue in New Delhi this September, it will mark an unfortunate precedent for the group and could potentially raise concerns about its sustainability in the present global order.

As this year's President, India is hosting the G20 event in its national capital New Delhi on September 09-10. The United States President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and a host of other member countries have confirmed their presence. However, the two key leaders, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, have confirmed their unavailability for the summit and have designated other ministers to lead their respective delegations.

Russian President in a phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi confirmed his absence from the summit and has instead deputed Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for the summit.

The Chinese delegation will be led by Premier Li Qiang.

“At the invitation of the government of the Republic of India, Premier of the State Council Li Qiang will attend the 18th G20 Summit to be held in New Delhi, India on September 9 and 10,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced on Monday.

Caught in the middle of this diplomatic quagmire, the Indian government has been reaching out to various countries to build a consensus and set a meaningful example of support before the world.

In response to a question regarding the absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit and its potential impact on India's role as a bridge between the North and South amid growing polarization, India’s Foreign Minister, during a discussion on national broadcaster Doordarshan, said the levels of representation should not be the sole factor determining a country's stance.

"Rather than fixating on which country sent representatives at what level, the pivotal consideration should be the positions they adopt upon attending. This is what will ultimately define our recollection of this G20 summit – the outcomes it generates," Jaishankar added.  

India’s efforts are cherished by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s stance of "this is not an era of war" and is focused on forging an alliance on development and support to those who have set eyes on G20 – like the Global South and the countries facing debt crisis.

India is holding the 4th G20 Sherpa meeting, from September 03, in the north Indian state of Haryana, close to a place called Nuh, which recently saw sectarian clashes between two major communities. The sherpas will deliberate for four days till September 7 to iron out differences on the Joint declaration before the leaders meet on September 09.

The fate of the G20 Joint Declaration is hanging in the balance, along with the unity of the world's major economies. If the G20 fails to adopt a joint declaration, the world will be seen as a more divided house.

“The success of G20 lies and rests very largely on some countries who want to discuss some non-consensus issues. We are supportive and cooperative to the agenda that India has proposed and hopefully, that outcome will be one that India aspires and hopes to reach,” said the Russian Ambassador to India.