With a population of 115 million, Ethiopia is the second-largest African country (after Nigeria). It is a multi-ethnic society with several languages and religions. The largest ethnic group in Ethiopia is the Oromo, who makeup about 35% of the population, followed by the Amhara with 27%, and then the Tigray with about 7% of Ethiopians, while the remaining percentage (31%) is an array of about 80 other ethnic groups. Among the many languages in the country, Amharic is the official one. In terms of religion, about 35% of Ethiopians are Muslims and 65% are Christians (45% Orthodox and 20% Protestant).

Five important dates

• 1944: By the end of World War II and with the defeat of Italy, Ethiopia gained its independence and was recognized by Great Britain as a sovereign state. Thus ended the era of Italian colonialism, which began in 1935.
• 1974: The fall of the monarchy in Ethiopia and its shifting towards the socialist camp, under its new name The People's Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. After the situation in the country deteriorated to the point of famine, a military coup was carried out by a group of hard-line Marxist officers. Thus ended the reign of Emperor Haile Selassie, the last king of the Sulaymaniyah dynasty, who had been crowned the throne of Ethiopia since 1930 and bears several titles, including "King of Kings" and "Conquering Lion of the Tribe of Judah". The reign of Mengistu Haile Miriam began.
• 1991: Two important events; the fall of the Marxist regime of Mengistu at the hands of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) after more than 15 years of armed struggle. A new regime emerged in Ethiopia dominated by the Tigrayans, headed by Meles Zenawi. This coincided with Eritrea's independence from Ethiopia after the Eritrean People's Liberation Front succeeded in defeating the Ethiopian army. With this development, Ethiopia became a "landlocked" country without any seaport.
• 2012: Meles Zenawi passed away after 21 years in power, during which he achieved stability and relative economic progress in the country. He was succeeded by Hailemariam Desalegn, who belongs to the same ruling party "Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front" but hails from a small ethnic minority "Welayta" - other than Tigrayans.
• 2018: Abiy Ahmed ascends to the leadership of Ethiopia peacefully through elections and political process. He belongs to the majority ethnicity – Oromo.

Before the outbreak of civil war: Abiy Ahmed, the rising star in the sky of Africa

The ascendance of Abiy Ahmed Ali to the top position in Ethiopia’s government in 2018 was not an ordinary event. It is the first time in history that a man from the largest ethnicity in Ethiopia, the Oromo, has come to power. His arrival was not revolutionary or a coup, but rather a result of a political process and general elections in which his party (Oromo People's Democratic Front) did very well. The ruling party (which is controlled by the ethnic Tigrayans) recommend him for the position of Prime Minister to succeed Prime Minister Desalegn, who resigned after the outbreak of a civil rebellion, violence and large-scale protests against the government.

In fact, Abiy Ahmed was not a stranger to the existing regime in Ethiopia. He worked for years as an officer in the Ethiopian army and then in Military Intelligence and reached the rank of colonel before turning to politics in 2010. After he was elected as a member of Parliament, he joined the federal government as Minister of Science and Technology between 2016 and 2017. Therefore, the influential circles in the deep state - which is dominated by the Tigray ethnic group - did not feel much concerned about him, and accepted him.

Abiy Ahmed's ascendance to power in Ethiopia sparked a wave of public rejoicing. With his youth (born in 1976), his energy and intelligence, he has become a hope for the future in the eyes of a large segment of Ethiopians, especially young people. Abiy Ahmed has unique qualities that reflect pluralism in the country. His father is a Muslim of the Oromo ethnicity, and his mother is a Christian from the Amhara, and he is personally a Protestant Christian.

From his first day in office, it became clear that Abiy Ahmed wants to lead Ethiopia towards a new phase of economic and technological renaissance, unleash the energies of youth, integrate into the global economy, and attract investments to his big country with enormous potential. Abiy Ahmed turned to the neighbours first. A common ground must be established for cooperation in the East African region as a whole so that he can implement his ambitious plans.

The first and difficult step was with Eritrea, the archenemy of Ethiopia since its independence in 1991. So he went to it and managed to conclude a peace treaty with its president, Isaias Afwerki, ending decades of political (and military) conflict and a state of no war - no peace between the two countries. This was followed by a series of cooperation agreements with the governments of Sudan, Djibouti and Kenya, all of which have an economic side that is advantageous to all parties and allows Ethiopia to benefit from the seaports of these countries on the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea (and Ethiopia, as well known, is a continental country that has no connection with the oceans).

Internally, Abiy Ahmed reconciliated with the regime's opponents, stopped the repressive practices against them, released those who were in prison, and allowed Ethiopian groups in America and the West to return to the country. He supervised multiple reconciliations between ethnicities in several provinces in Ethiopia.

Abiy Ahmed's policies won approval and support regionally and in the world. Abiy Ahmed seemed to be the rising star in Africa - leading it towards a new future to take its proper place in the twenty-first century. He was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.

The civil war in Ethiopia, why?

The popularity that Abiy Ahmed gained in his country and abroad gave him a feeling of self-confidence and encouraged him to face the difficult issue that was inevitable in order to continue the path of reforms and change that he had begun. It was necessary to reform the internal structure of the Ethiopian state and to remove the old guards and those with influence who might impede and block democratic transformation and economic reform. The majority of them were of the Tigray ethnic group, and they controlled in particular the military and security establishment. Politically, Abiy Ahmed distanced himself from the old regime represented by the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front and formed his party, which he called the Prosperity Party.

Gradually, the influential Tigrayan leaders in the state began to feel the danger of Abiy Ahmed's policy on their interests. Therefore it was natural for the old guards to start the 'resistance' against the Prime Minister. They started by 'delivering him a message' when, in October 2018, about 250 members of the Ethiopian army’s special forces stormed Abiy Ahmed’s office, carrying their weapons, to demonstrate their complaints about wages and other demands. 

Following that, Abiy Ahmed was subjected to an assassination attempt when a hand grenade was thrown at him (but did not explode) while participating in a public rally for his supporters. 

In November 2019, Abiy Ahmed strongly responded; arresting 63 senior officials in the army, security and intelligence services, including 27 generals, on suspicion of committing human rights violations, corruption and involvement in the assassination attempt.

Things did not calm down in the country. Indeed, ethnic tensions began to re-emerge in several regions, including Oromia, his own province, as well as Amhara. As for the influential old guards in the army and the state, they began to return to their home region in the north of the country, Tigray, and consolidate their strength and prepare to confront the Prime Minister, whom they accused of hostile practices and crimes against Tigray and its people.

In November 2020, Abiy Ahmed ordered the government forces to attack Tigray province. This happened after a series of frictions between the two parties, politically and militarily. The Tigray regional government rejected Abiy Ahmed's decision to postpone the elections in the country due to Corona Virus and insisted on holding them, which prompted the Prime Minister to cut federal funding for the province and impose a kind of siege on it. As a result, there was an armed reaction on the part of the Tigray Liberation Front when it attacked a government military base in the region. 

Afterwards, things escalated between the two parties for over a year, during which the Tigrayan forces achieved a series of victories over the official Ethiopian army.

Tigray shows its steel: The ancient warrior returns to the battlefield

Credit for the important military achievements of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) goes to the vast military experience of its cadres and leaders, who were the core of the Ethiopian army for 30 years after it defeated the Mengistu regime in 1991 and toppled it, in addition to more than 15 years of armed struggle against the government before that. It is a cumulative military experience of about 45 years for generations of Tigrayan fighters.

The most important Tigrayan leader is, definitely, Tsadkan Gebritensai, 68, who is the supreme commander of the TPLF forces, to whom all their military successes are attributed.

The young Tsadkan had a great reputation during the armed struggle against the Mengistu regime in the seventies and eighties of the last century when he demonstrated rare military competence and great determination in the most difficult circumstances. It is said that he did not sleep on a bed during the 15 years that he spent in caves, mountains and jungles, leading the military operations against the government. Tsadkan's status among his comrades rose until he became the head of the TPLF forces, which reached 100,000 fighters when they entered Addis Ababa in 1991.

Tsadkan was appointed Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian army under his comrade, the powerful Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. He quickly restructured the army. During the war that broke out between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 1998, General Tsadkan was the Ethiopian military planner in the bloody conflict that claimed the lives of nearly 80 thousand people from both sides. In June of 2000, an Ethiopian offensive shattered Eritrean defences and Ethiopian troops rushed across the border. Then a dispute erupted between the two men. Tsadkan was determined to advance towards the Eritrean capital, Asmara, but Prime Minister Zenawi refused and insisted on stopping, considering that the objectives of the Ethiopian war had been achieved and that Eritrea had been defeated.

After the war stopped, Zenawi dismissed his colleague Tsadkan from the position of Chief of Staff and decided to terminate his military service. Despite his power and influence, he accepted the decision and turned to his new status as an ordinary citizen, and started some business in his hometown in Tigray.

When war broke out in Tigray in November 2020, Tsadkan answered the call of duty, joined the armed resistance, put aside his differences with other TPLF leaders, and began organizing the Tigrayan youth to fight alongside the veterans who returned to take up arms under his command. The Ethiopian government, from its side, issued an arrest warrant for General Tsadkan and other Tigrayan leaders, accusing them of treason. 

It is now clear that the veteran's experience took over the enthusiasm of the younger man, Abiy Ahmed.

Abiy Ahmed's Predicament

Abiy Ahmed finds himself in a very bad and difficult situation. The campaign he launched a year ago to subdue the rebels in Tigray deteriorated until we reached the status quo these days, where the TPLF forces threaten to invade the capital, Addis Ababa. Abiy Ahmed’s call to all the citizens in Addis Ababa to prepare and carry their guns to defend the capital indicates the extent of deterioration that Abiy Ahmed’s army is experiencing. His recent show-moves, such as wearing military khakis and announcing he’s heading to the frontlines, come in the context of raising morale and have no real military value, because field commanders on the battlefronts do not need the person of the Prime Minister with them as much as they need armament, funding, logistical support, and political cover, of course.

What exacerbates Abiy Ahmed's bad situation is the decline in political support for him at the international level, especially in the West. With several accusations and testimonies of crimes against civilians, human rights violations and massacres committed in Tigray by the Ethiopian government forces, and the Amharic militias supporting them, Abiy Ahmed is under severe pressure, to the extent that the US administration imposed wide-ranging restrictions on economic and security assistance to Ethiopia because of "atrocities” in Tigray region. The US also banned the granting of visas to current and former Ethiopian officials and imposed sanctions on the Eritrean government and its army who are supporting Abiy Ahmed on the ground.

Among the accusations levelled against Abiy Ahmed and the Ethiopian government are impeding the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Tigray region and imposing a comprehensive siege on the region and cutting public services from it, a few months ago. This brought Abiy Ahmed into direct conflict with humanitarian organizations and the United Nations, and that prompted him to expel seven senior UN officials on charges of “Interfering in Ethiopia's internal affairs”.

It is a great irony that the “man of peace and tolerance” and the winner of the Nobel Prize becomes accused of crimes, violations and massacres!

In a rare move, the committee awarding the Nobel Peace Prize issued a statement that seemed to pave the way for a reversal of its decision to award the prize to Abiy Ahmed in 2019. The committee which rarely comments on what its noble winners do after receiving the prize said it is “closely following developments in Ethiopia and is very concerned”.

Today it seems that everything which Abiy Ahmed has done and accomplished since he came to power in 2018 is about to vanish due to the war in Tigray. The policy of tolerance and freedom at the internal level, the atmosphere of peace and cooperation at the regional level, Ethiopia's reputation in international circles as a rising country and attracting investment, all are subject to be lost.

What About Egypt and the Dam?

It is legitimate to think about how much Egypt has benefited from the developments and the civil war raging in Ethiopia concerning the Renaissance Dam. Before that, we can ask: Does Egypt have a role in what is happening in Ethiopia? Meaning, is it possible that Egypt somehow supports a certain party in Ethiopia? The answer to this question is negative. Egypt does not have a direct or indirect role in what is going on. Rather, it is just playing the observer role, watching and analysing. The Ethiopian crisis is internal, and its causes, as we explained, are basically due to the collision of ethnicities and conflicting interests between the Ethiopian parties. But this does not negate that Egypt is benefiting from what is happening, as the weakness of the Ethiopian state and the central government will undoubtedly reflect on negotiations about the Renaissance Dam. The long-term strategic plans for Ethiopia to benefit from the dam necessarily require the presence of a stable and strong central government in Addis Ababa. Otherwise, the importance of the dam to Ethiopia and its ability to benefit from it will diminish. 

It is unlikely that the Ethiopian government, who’s engaged in a grinding internal conflict, will be able to continue paying attention to the dam project in the way we saw in the past few years. And its ability to complete the work and progress in construction has become weak. If the current situation continues for a longer period, the issue of the third filling of the dam's reservoir will become in doubt. It is true that until this moment, the Ethiopian government has not said anything indicating a change in the position on the Renaissance Dam and the relationship with Egypt, but in the end, facts on the ground will impose themselves.

And Ethiopia relies on foreign parties, international banks and financial institutions to fund the dam project, and all of these may reconsider their position and re-evaluating the feasibility of the dam project in light of civil conflict or a weak government in the country

At the end of the day, developments of the crisis in Ethiopia will determine what happens. If the federal government fails to quickly resolve the situation to its favour and defeat its opponents, and the internal war drags on, Egypt will be in a relatively comfortable situation and the pressures on it will ease. But in the event of the collapse of the central government in Addis Ababa at the hands of its Tigrayan opponents, Ethiopia will enter into complete chaos in a way that will lead to the obstruction of the dam project for an unknown period. Perhaps, in that case, Egypt will have to intervene in the Ethiopian region in which the dam was built (Bani Shengul - Gomez) to ensure its protection from sudden collapse or sabotage operations that affect the quantities and regularity of water flowing into Sudan and Egypt. 

Even if Abiy Ahmed’s government manages to achieve a quick and decisive victory over the TPLF (which is unlikely), it will emerge from the crisis exhausted and weakened, and wounds will need time to heal. Restoration of civil peace will be a priority, and this may push Ethiopia to show greater flexibility in negotiations with Egypt about the dam.