The second and decisive round of presidential elections in Brazil is scheduled later this month, on Oct 30th. In the first round Lula da Silva, the leftist former president won over 48% of the votes while the incumbent extreme-rightist President Jair Bolsonaro got 41% in the largest country in the South American continent. 

This is arguably the hottest and most polarizing elections in the history of Brazil. Lula, 76 years old, who was called the "Champion of the Poor" due to his heroic work for the poor classes in Brazil during his presidency between 2002 – 2010 , has miraculously returned to the political scene after his 18-month conspirational imprisonment between 2018 – 2019, to face the Trump- like Bolsonaro, 67 years old, who’s the far-right icon in Brazil with his military background, catholic faith and pro-business “credentials”. The gap can’t be wider between the two men. 

A large array of diverging social, economic, political and legislative issues separates the two candidates. Brazil is an enormous country and its next president is expected to be more occupied with internal affairs than foreign policy matters. However, one “internal” issue is in fact of grave concern to the whole world: the Amazon rainforests and how the Brazilian state and president deal with it. 

The policies adopted by Bolsonaro with regards to the Amazon rainforests can be described as “environmentally unfriendly”. This is not an exaggeration or accusation, rather it’s a fact supported by statistics, figures as well as public decisions and statements from Bolsonaro himself.  

Bolsonaro has repeatedly vowed to open up the Amazon for development. By “Amazon Development”, the pro-business Bolsonaro apparently meant to clear the forests to make way for commercial agriculture such as soy plantation, livestock, logging, and mining, leading to the deforestation of the rainforest. In a two-year period, from 2019 to 2021, Bolsonaro cut down the budgets allocated to Brazil’s three major environmental institutions by 35% , reflecting his ideology on climate and nature.

In 2019, Bolsonaro mocked international and environmental groups that opposed his pro-business actions that enabled deforestation. At one point in August 2019, Bolsonaro jokingly calling himself "Captain Chain Saw"! According to international climate organizations, the deforestation rate in the Amazon almost doubled during Bolsonaro’s presidency; increasing from 6,947 km2 in 2017 to 13,038 in 2021.

What’s at Stake?

The Amazon River in South America is the largest river by discharge volume of water in the world  (215,000 m3/s), greater than the next seven largest independent rivers combined. The Amazon accounts for 20% of the global riverine discharge into oceans. It is sometimes known as The River Sea.

The Amazon rainforest is the largest in the world, covering an area of 6,000,000 km2, 60% of which is in Brazil. It represents over half of the planet's rainforests and comprises the largest and most biodiverse tropical tract in the world. It’s home to one-tenth of all living plant and animal species. Therefore, the Amazon rainforest is the world's biggest terrestrial carbon dioxide sink and plays a significant role in mitigating global warming. Forests are vital in the fight against the climate crisis. Losing these vital ecosystems means more carbon in the atmosphere and fewer resources to capture what is being emitted. Deforestation could also trigger a larger collapse of the entire rainforest ecosystem. Rainforests create their own weather systems, including rainfall. As the size of the rainforest declines, it lengthens the forest’s dry season, triggering even greater warming and drying, killing trees in the nearby still-intact forest, and eventually causing the entire ecosystem to shift from rainforest to savanna.

The wildlife in the Amazon rainforest is also endangered. Notably, river turtles and their eggs, Jaguars, and approximately 400 species of birds are impacted by the illegal trade in Brazil. Also, rare wild breeds of deer, pigs and rodents (called pacas, peccaries, tapirs, cabyparas…etc) are being hunted and sold for their meat. In 2020 “Freeland Brasil”, a non-profit group combating the illegal wildlife trade, published a 140-page report that explained how millions of wild animals are trafficked domestically and out of Brazil every year. The report went on to warn that the country’s illegal wildlife trade is not taken seriously enough by the government, with grave consequences for biodiversity.

Deliberate Fires in the Amazon!

In 2019 , large scale fires took place in Amazon forests areas in Brazil, mainly in the Pará and Amazonas tropical provinces. Although it’s historically not uncommon to have fires in the dry season in the forests, this time the magnitude of the fires was alarmingly different. 26,600 fires were reported in the month of August, the highest number ever! The smoke plume from the fires caused the sky to darken at around 2 p.m. over Sao Paulo—which is almost 2,800 kilometres away from the Amazon basin. The environmental disaster took on international dimensions and overshadowed the G7 meeting which was being held at the time.

It was later learned that the fires were in no way caused by natural reasons. About 70 rural farmers, land grabbers and businessmen coordinated what is called “fire day” around the town of Novo Progresso. They were felling trees and burning them in order to clear land for pasture. “These people are Bolsonaro’s electoral base”, said an official from Brazil’s Environment Agency, IBAMA, who had worked in the area, as per the UK’s The Guardian newspaper, which added that warnings about the planned plot reached IBAMA five days before it happened. IBAMA tried to intervene but its operations had been hampered because police support was withdrawn, putting their teams at risk in a region where they already faced threats. Environmental officials asked bosses in Brasilia for help, but requests for reinforcements were ignored. Even after the fires were started, the government's response was lazy and lax. “I know support was requested for an emergency plan, but it was not answered”, said an environmental official who spoke anonymously because the government has banned environment officials from talking to media.

Even if Lula wins, the damage is already done

Lula’s record with regards to nature and the environment is impressive. During his presidency, the deforestation rate in the Amazon was cut down by almost two thirds; from 21,650 km2 in 2002 to 7,000 in 2010.

However, fixing Bolsonaro’s destructive policies towards the Amazon rainforest won’t be an easy task for Lula. France’s Le Monde described Bolsonaro’s environmental legacy “to be nothing short of catastrophic”. The newspaper added “he has turned a country that was once a leader in the fight against climate change into an international pariah”. Right now, it is estimated that 15 to 17 percent of the Amazon rainforest has already been cut down. Brazil has increased its greenhouse gas emissions by 10% due to the fires in the country.

Lula’s program includes strengthening environmental institutions weakened by Bolsonaro’s presidency, providing “green” farm loans and meeting Brazil’s Paris Agreement goals. But if elected, Lula will face the challenge of undoing some of Bolsonaro’s legislation. For example, a “land-grab” bill that legitimizes squatters who raze Amazon rainforest for cattle ranches or soy plantations, which has passed the lower house of parliament and is on the government priority list for a Senate vote.

For the world, Lula has to win. The planet cannot afford four more years of an anti-environment Brazilian leader.