In his first speech during the Gaza Genocide, the former Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah concluded by asserting that “Hamas will not lose”. Fifteen months later, the Palestinian movement has signed a prisoner and ceasefire deal, effectively forcing the Israelis into submission.

Assuming that the Gaza ceasefire holds, the Israelis have been dealt a defeat from which they may never fully recover. This analysis does not come without the acknowledgment of the historic crime committed against the people of the Gaza Strip, but from a realistic look at what impact an Israeli surrender has had.

The Palestinian armed groups in Gaza, including the Qassam Brigades of Hamas, were never powerful enough to decisively defeat the Israeli military and capture new territory in occupied Palestine, nor were they under any illusions about their abilities either. Although no one could have imagined the sheer scale of the human suffering and carnage that the Zionist regime would inflict, it was clear that the Palestinian Resistance prepared itself for a long war of attrition.

It can be said that the mere fact that - amidst widespread starvation, the mass murder of between 47,000 to 300,000 [as per the highest estimates] people, and the destruction of over 80% of Gaza’s infrastructure - the Palestinian armed groups would even continue to exist as formidable fighting forces, is nothing short of a miracle. Not only were the Resistance factions able to regroup, maintain their ability to fire long-range rockets into the likes of “Tel Aviv” and occupied Jerusalem but Hamas was able to conclude a favourable ceasefire/prisoner exchange.

The Zionist regime’s two key goals were to completely “destroy” Hamas and to return their captives by force, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly asserted he was going to achieve. Even on January 18, the day before the implementation of the ceasefire deal, the Israeli premier still repeated these goals and vowed to achieve them.

As it turned out, the Palestinian armed groups never had to achieve military parity or superiority over the Israelis, they only needed to continue to possess the capability to resist them. While the Palestinian Resistance managed to inflict casualties on the Zionist forces until the very last day before the ceasefire, it was obvious that the regime was hiding many of its soldier deaths and injuries from the Israeli public.

Some analysts have attempted to downplay the importance of the Palestinian armed factions in securing the ceasefire/prisoner-exchange agreement, either out of a lack of understanding of the nature of the war or in order to dismiss the effectiveness of the fighters.

Why was 'Israel' Forced to surrender?

There are a combination of factors that brought about the ceasefire and prisoner exchange. Most of the focus in the corporate media has been placed upon the negotiating team of US President Donald Trump, which was certainly a crucial factor, yet it is much more complex than the will of the Republican leader.

By the admission of American President Joe Biden himself, the ceasefire deal that has been signed is almost identical to the one that Washington had put on the table back in May of 2024. Therefore, there have been allegations against the Biden administration that they needlessly refused to pressure the Israelis to sign that same deal some 8 months ago, prolonging the genocide instead.

Yet, the reality is much darker than this. The Hamas-led October 7 attack, dubbed Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, not only dealt an enormous blow to the Israelis, but also the United States. The key foreign policy goal of the Biden administration was to secure a normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and the Zionist regime, which would then enable them to launch their India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor that aimed to help Washington in its ongoing competition with Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative.

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The October 7 assault also collapsed the image of American power in West Asia, along with that of the Israelis, making Iran appear as the regional military powerhouse. Under such circumstances, the US permitted its Israeli allies to commit a genocide in the Gaza Strip and to work on a project to cripple the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance. It was therefore clear, that eventually, the war was going to expand onto other fronts beyond Gaza.

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who had ordered his fighters to open a support front for Gaza since October 8, 2023, openly announced that Hezbollah would not give up on the Palestinian people “no matter what direction the region goes in” and that the some 100,000 settlers who had fled their homes in northern occupied Palestine would not return until the end of the Gaza war. 

In September of 2024, the entire equation changed regionally. The Zionist regime hatched its infamous explosive-laden pager terrorist attack that wounded thousands of Lebanese citizens, before launching a series of assassination strikes that murdered most of Hezbollah’s senior leadership. These actions severely weakened the perception of Tehran’s power regionally, which was then partially won back through Iran’s successful Operation ‘True Promise 2’ missile attack on October 1. 

Hezbollah suffered a serious blow, especially after the assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, then being forced to fight a defensive battle in a way they had not anticipated. Understanding that without launching a full-scale war, the battle was only going to end in a stale-mate, it prevented any significant ground advance from the Zionist regime’s forces, then agreed to a ceasefire on November 27. 

Lebanon had managed to fight the Israelis to a standstill under the worst possible circumstances. Then, as the ceasefire went into effect and the Zionists immediately began violating it, the beginning of the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria would commence.

Although these regional developments may not have been favorable to the Axis of Resistance, they were crucial in order to permit any US government to allow a ceasefire in Gaza to occur. While the Israelis were going to face defeat through the signing of a ceasefire deal with Hamas, the United States no longer shared in the image of defeat that would have befell them in May. At this point, Washington has the ability to use its propaganda to spin the regional war results as a triumph for its imperialist interests.

The United States has attained a series of tactical victories, in addition to what appears to have been a strategic victory in Syria; as per the current outcome. This may have been enough to sufficiently convince its Arab allied nations of its power and relevance in the region, which is of vital importance to American policy makers. The US hopes to scare nations like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) into submission, while also demonstrating that their power can ensure a sense of security.

Despite the American-Israeli propaganda, which now presents the Axis of Resistance as “defeated”, the outcome in the Gaza Strip demonstrates the exact opposite. Contrary to the notion of a battered and beleaguered Palestinian Resistance, it continued to fight until the ceasefire went into effect. Immediately afterwards, thousands of Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigades fighters and Security Forces deployed across the besieged territory.

For 15 months, the Zionist Entity committed a genocide in Gaza with the full force of not only its military, but leaned on the US for support throughout. The Palestinian armed groups fought under a total siege, with no supply lines from the outside, yet survived. Given this fact, it would be rather ridiculous to assume that Hezbollah in Lebanon would not prove capable of achieving the same result, given the will of the Lebanese people to resist and remain steadfast.

Regardless of these facts, the popular perception actually worked in favour of the ceasefire in Gaza, as the US appears strong. This allowed for them to force the Zionists to end the war against the people of Gaza.

One thing that has to be kept in mind is that the war is not completely over, because it is currently a regional conflict. Therefore the ceasefire represents the closure of one front. Still to be concluded is the situation in southern Lebanon, where the Zionists continue to violate the ceasefire and also the West Bank. In order to keep his coalition together, the Israeli Prime Minister will need to follow through on his pledge to annex portions of the occupied territory, something that the Trump administration appears ready to permit.

If it wasn’t for the unbelievable steadfastness of Gaza’s people, the relentlessness of its armed resistance, combined with the sustained efforts of the support fronts in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq, victory would not have been possible. The sacrifices were tremendous, from the people, the fighters and leaders of movements. It can be confidently stated at this stage that Hezbollah’s Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah died to ensure victory in the Gaza Strip, as his pledge that “Hamas will not lose” was fulfilled despite his absence.

A complex combination of factors made this ceasefire possible, not all of them positive by any means, yet what is truly the primary reason for the war's outcome is the spirit of Gaza’s people, who never gave up despite losing all their worldly possessions.