How the 'Arab-Israeli Axis' will undoubtedly backfire
Last month, the Hashemite ruler of Jordan, King Abdullah II, stated during an interview with CNBC that “I would be one of the first people that would endorse a Middle East NATO”, reinforcing the belief that a new alliance may well be near.
US President Joe Biden’s scheduled visit to Saudi Arabia and occupied Palestine has produced a lot of speculation surrounding the idea of a united “Israeli-Arab axis”, aimed at undermining Iran and the regional camp of resistance. Whilst this may seem like a successful power play by the West, it is almost certainly doomed to fail.
Last month, the Hashemite ruler of Jordan, King Abdullah II, stated during an interview with CNBC that “I would be one of the first people that would endorse a Middle East NATO”, reinforcing the belief that a new alliance may well be near. The newly proposed alliance will aim to take the Arab regimes that have normalized ties with the Zionist entity, in addition to Saudi Arabia, in order to form a regional alliance that aims at combating Iran. The true aim of which will be to take on the forces of resistance in Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen and to weaken their alliance with Tehran.
The visit scheduled for this month, by US President Biden, is said to be primarily based around an agenda to form an anti-Iran coalition, as talks continue in Doha over a possible revival of the 2015 Nuclear Agreement. According to Western media pundits, the prospect of the new pro-Washington alliance has influenced Tehran’s decision to push forward with negotiations that could result in the revival of the Nuclear Deal. Despite such talk, there is no evidence to this effect, especially as the regional camp of resistance to Western imperialism has many cards to play which could in turn create a mockery out of the “Middle East’s NATO”.
To begin with, the US regime has an agenda set for the Middle East which sees Arab normalization with Tel Aviv as a key pillar of strengthening the Zionist entity's position in the region. This, although it certainly carries short-term benefits for "Israel" and Western weapons manufacturers, misses a key piece of the puzzle. That is that the Islamic Republic of Iran is already a regional power, it has one of the strongest positions of influence of any Middle Eastern country and is not merely on its way to becoming a regional power as is suggested. Coming to terms with this, also means that the West must accept the power of the camp of resistance that allies itself with the Islamic Republic because refusal to accept this, blinds them. The refusal to accept the power of the resistance forces of the region is an arrogance that blinds Western think tanks and political kingmakers.
The West seems to view an alliance involving "Israel", Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan and Morocco, as a form of triangular diplomacy. It seeks Arab normalization with "Israel" as a step forward for all US-allied Middle East regimes to proceed, making this a priority regardless of whether a democrat or republican is in the White House. However, this so-called visionary approach that the US bets on to strengthen its power in the region is nothing new and is just another means of pursuing a policy that has existed since the Cold War era.
The biggest problem for Washington is that it refuses to accept the reality on the ground in the Middle East. The Kissinger Doctrine-type approach of sowing chaos in the region - inside nations not directly allied to the West - has backfired tremendously. The reason for Ansarallah in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the various resistance movements in Palestine and beyond, all come from the failure of the US to recognize the capabilities and qualities of their opposition. The US regime change wars, coups and meddling in the affairs of Middle Eastern nations have caused the unwanted backlash of birthing fully capable, educated, and ideologically committed forces of resistance, movements that have integrated entire populations into their visions for liberation. These forces have now become united and are beginning to build a joint agenda to confront Western imperialism.
For example, in the past, with the exception of the Palestinian resistance movements, the Zionist entity had to fight States in the Middle East. When fighting conventional wars, "Israel" could always rely on its airpower and ability to pressure the States surrounding it in areas that are not directly attached to military function. Today, the Israelis, and their US backers, have to battle armed groups that do not have the commitments that State’s do. In the case of fighting Hezbollah or the Palestinian resistance, for instance, there is no way for Tel Aviv to inflict an all-out defeat on these movements that are ideologically committed to a moral cause and operate without the constraints that a traditional government has. This has created an extremely dangerous equation for "Israel", as the resistance forces now possess much greater weapons capabilities, in the case of Hezbollah these capabilities are as effective as any State’s military might.
Arab normalization with "Israel" is also nothing new, many corrupt Arab regimes have maintained private connections with the Zionist entity for at least 50 years. Although Riyadh has not formally announced its normalization with "Israel", it already regularly communicates with Tel Aviv representatives. There is no piece of paper signed to say that Saudi Arabia has normalized, yet in reality, it has normalized with Tel Aviv already. Egypt was the first to formally normalize ties with the Zionist entity, followed by Jordan, yet in both these cases neither country turned into the paradise that pro-Western propaganda suggests Iraq or Lebanon will turn into if they normalize.
The United Arab Emirates normalized on its own accord for sure, yet it was already rich and normalization with "Israel" served to aid its emergence as a regional power, in the eyes of its rulers. However, with the exception of the short term economic and military gains for Abu Dhabi, the so-called “Abraham Accords” were not a success for the others, like Morocco and Sudan that also partook. Morocco is rapidly being pushed towards the brink of war with its militarily superior neighbor Algeria and Sudan is still rotting away, with no end in sight to its current political and economic crises. As for Bahrain, it normalized due to pressure - most likely from both Saudi Arabia and the UAE - but plays a limited role in the region and is not a serious player. Egypt is now facing an economic crisis and Jordan is fearing the same, currently, both are scrambling to prevent their economic and social problems from affecting them on a political level.
Forming an alliance between the normalizers, in order to confront Iran, will mean that the resistance will have the perfect opportunity to completely flip the region's power dynamics on its head. All this takes a joint military campaign against "Israel". If the resistance groups in Lebanon, Yemen, Palestine, Syria, and Iraq, with the backing of Tehran, decide to launch a strategic joint attack on "Israel", the normalization axis will be instantly put on the back foot and forced to engage with the resistance as a serious force.
If the Palestinian resistance manages to wage war from Gaza, with the aid of Palestinians in the rest of occupied Palestine, whilst the above-mentioned groups also act in some way, this will create a scenario under which the US will be forced to attempt to negotiate with the resistance in order to decide the future of the region. Although the power seems to be in the hands of the West and its Middle East allies at this time, one calculated strategic battle could completely undo this status quo, hence adopting a more confrontational approach to Iran is completely counterintuitive.
Iran is in a strong position, as are its allies, and a battle that will begin paving the way to the liberation of Palestine will force the normalizers to bow their heads in shame and will usher in a new era of resistance in the Middle East. No alliance or air defense systems will save the pro-US axis, with one limited battle, they will be forced to engage with the resistance seriously and accept the reality on the ground.