"Israel’s" airstrikes in Gaza, following rocket-fire into the Mediterranean of "Tel Aviv" this New Year’s Day, may have led to a new war in the Palestinian occupied territories if administrative detainee Hisham Abu Hawash would have died in Israeli custody. But due to ongoing tensions, the threat of conflict between Gaza and "Israel" has not subsided.

On New Year's Day, "Israel’s" military carried out a number of airstrikes targeting the areas of Khan Yunis and Beit Hanoun, in the besieged Gaza Strip. The bombardment came following the firing of two rockets from Gaza earlier that day, which landed in the Mediterranean Sea close to "Tel Aviv". Although a Hamas official had stated that the rocket fire was due to a malfunction, "Israel" did not buy the excuse and deemed the incident “an unacceptable event”. Although this was in essence the entire story reported by Western media outlets, the context behind this brief escalation paints a much more bleak reality under which Gaza and "Israel" could quickly descend into war within the next few weeks.

The full story begins with Hunger Striking Palestinian political prisoner, Hisham Abu Hawash, who is being held by "Israel" without a charge. Abu Hawash, the father of five, held in administrative detention has, after being on hunger strike for over 140 days, slipped into a coma and faces “imminent danger of death due to potassium deficiency and arrhythmia” according to Physicians for Human Rights "Israel". Despite efforts from the United Nations and Egypt to negotiate a settlement, which would guarantee the release of Hisham Abu Hawash, "Israel" did not budge, allowing the political prisoner to slowly die. 

If this was to have occurred, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) Party vowed to retaliate and said that Abu Hawash's death would be “considered as an assassination” by all Palestinian armed groups, including the Al-Qassam Brigades of Hamas. After tensions came to a boiling point, Hisham Abu Hawash was granted a release date for the 26th of February, but his condition has nevertheless still placed him in great danger and his recovery from breaking the hunger strike on Tuesday is not guaranteed.

Since the 11-day war between Gaza’s armed resistance and "Israel" last May, shy of the occasional bombing of agricultural areas in Gaza, the situation has remained in relative calm whilst an indirect prisoner exchange negotiation has been ongoing. As a form of collective punishment, "Israel" has conditioned the entrance of reconstruction material into the Gaza Strip, upon a prisoner swap that would secure the return of four Israeli soldiers held by Hamas. Yet, here we are in 2022 and Hamas seems to indicate that "Israel" has turned down a “roadmap proposal”, hence it vows to escalate tensions in order to force "Israel" back into negotiations.

Although "Israel" has been tough in its rhetoric, militarily it has little idea what to do with Gaza’s armed resistance. The fighting last May proved "Israel’s" inability to destroy the military capabilities of the Palestinians, not only that, it is widely believed that the Israeli military was defeated as it was never able to enter Gaza, assassinate any prominent Palestinians, or inflict significant damage on the military infrastructure of Hamas. 

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The latest round of airstrikes demonstrated "Israel’s" inability to act effectively against the Gaza-based armed resistance. For one, Hamas and PIJ announced they had deserted their training facilities and outposts earlier that day, hit later by Israeli airstrikes. Hamas also reportedly notified the Egyptians that they would retaliate against "Israel" if they struck disproportionately, which may be why the Israelis struck open areas and caused no casualties.

"Israel", in letting Hisham Abu Hawash deteriorate to his current condition, is assumed to have been prepared for some sort of military confrontation in the event that he died. Strategically, it could have made sense that "Israel" was seeking to carry out a “targeted assassination” in Gaza, in order to strike first and get the upper hand in any upcoming battle. This is pure speculation, but makes the most sense for them militarily if they were planning an escalation in Gaza. "Israel" did give a strong response, when an unidentified gunman from Gaza opened fire across the separation fence, injuring an Israeli employed by a company contracted to work for the Israeli military. Quickly, on December 29, Israeli artillery opened fire on three locations in the East of Gaza, injuring three Palestinian farmers according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.

Yet, the rocket-fire on New Year’s, whether an accident or purposely committed, changed the strategic landscape and placed "Israel" on the back foot. At that point, the Palestinian armed resistance had prepared themselves for not only an escalation with "Israel", but also to brace themselves from an incoming attack. Many Israelis were not happy with the response "Israel" gave. Earlier last year PM Naftali Bennett had sworn that striking Ashkelon would carry the response that it used to carry to hit "Tel Aviv". Meaning that "Israel" would strike with much more force. Yet, the response to rocket fire that reached "Tel Aviv" proved to be the same lack-luster strikes, targeting deserted outposts and training sites, that is routinely the case when "Ashkelon" is struck.

Back in May, PM Bennett had stated that the ceasefire agreed to by "Israel" was an “embarrassment” and would only bring more rockets, but like his predecessor Benjamin Netanyahu, Bennett has failed to prove effective against Hamas and the other armed groups. Now he himself is suffering what many would call an embarrassment, as his recent round of strikes were so ineffective that Hamas decided to test new rockets, firing them into the sea, whilst the bombing was ongoing. Also, the Al-Qassam brigades fired SA-7 surface-to-air missiles at Israeli fighter jets during the Israeli attack, which received no Israeli response.

In reaction to Hisham Abu Hawash’s deterioration in health, the West Bank also began to explode with sporadic as well as organized protests over the political prisoners' decline in health. In Jenin (West Bank), Palestinian armed resistance groups vowed to retaliate, in the event of Abu Hawash’s death, along with the Gaza-based groups. If this was to be the case, it seems that "Israel" will have little likelihood of winning the exchange militarily, meaning that they are unlikely to achieve much against what is known as the ‘Joint Room of Palestinian Resistance’ and instead are likely to carry out much of their aggression against Gaza’s civilian population.

For Hamas, which runs the besieged Gaza Strip, it is unlikely that they currently seek an all-out war with "Israel". If they were to go to war, the most favorable circumstances would come for them if they were responding to an Israeli attack on occupied Al-Quds. If AL-Quds is the main issue, then not only will this garner the support of Palestinians with Israeli passports, but possibly outside actors like Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemen’s Ansarallah who threaten regional war in the event that we see a repeat of what happened in May 2021. This is why any escalation in the coming days is most likely to be limited and primarily fought by PIJ, although the scale of "Israel’s" attack could easily change this.

For the current Israeli PM Naftali Bennett, he and his power-sharing government with Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid are also not in the most favorable of circumstances for war. If the situation goes out of hand, it is possible that the government may be dissolved by the withdrawal of Parties or Cabinet members from the coalition. If this occurs, both Bennett and Lapid may be over politically, this is because both of them disappointed their voters by entering into a coalition in order to oust former PM Benjamin Netanyahu. So although they may seek a military escalation or commit to a limited battle, there is always the possibility that they will suffer a political defeat as a result of a war on Gaza.

Regardless of the outcome, this extremely dangerous escalation could have been solved months ago. "Israel", which has the legal duty to take care of prisoners it detains, should have acted to strike a deal to get a release date for Hisham Abu Hawash much earlier, or alternatively should not have held him without a charge at all. "Israel" could have also negotiated for a prisoner swap in good faith and allowed for reconstruction goods to enter Gaza. Unfortunately, just as was the case with Netanyahu’s failed military campaign against Gaza last year, if this does escalate based upon "Israel’s" policies of collectively punishing Gaza, it is clear that it all could have been stopped much earlier on by the Israeli government. Now, the rage in the occupied territories, combined with the frustration by Hamas at what they see as "Israel’s" unwillingness to negotiate, has created the perfect conditions to facilitate a renewed round of conflict, and even if it is avoided this time around, the next war is only one major incident away.