The Afghan summit in Samarkand confirmed Islamabad's worries that terrorist safe havens there represent a "danger to regional and global security" and urged Kabul to take the necessary measures to allay the worries of the neighboring nations. The existence of proscribed terrorist groups, which Kabul failed to drive out under the Doha Agreement, raised serious worries about Afghanistan's security situation at the summit.

Delegations from China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan attended ministerial conferences held by Uzbekistan a couple of weeks ago in Samarkand. Amir Khan Muttaqi, the foreign minister for the Taliban, went to Samarkand to participate in the conference despite being prohibited from traveling by UN Security Council sanctions.

Pakistan concerns

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), two conjoined terrorist organizations engaged in a conflict with the Pakistani army and regularly murdering security officials, have made sanctuaries in Afghanistan that Pakistan has repeatedly requested Kabul to destroy and flush out the militants. Heavy losses were incurred by Pakistan's army, police, and populace as a result of a protracted terror campaign launched by these groups with the support of the Afghan Taliban.

Data from the Islamabad-based Pak Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS) think tank showed that between August 15, 2021, and August 14, 2022, 250 attacks resulted in 433 fatalities and 719 injuries, as opposed to 165 attacks that caused 294 fatalities and 598 injuries during the period from Agust 2020 and August 2021.

In November last year, the Afghan Taliban mediated an armistice agreement between the TTP and Pakistani authorities in response to an uptick in terrorist attacks. As a result of the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan in August last year, the Afghan Taliban came to power and Pakistan began experiencing a record 51 percent increase in terrorist attacks in a single year.

In response to an upsurge in terrorist strikes, the Afghan Taliban brokered an armistice deal between the TTP and Pakistani authorities in November last year. The number of terrorist strikes in Pakistan spiked by a record-breaking 51 percent in just one year as soon as the Taliban took control of Afghanistan when U.S. and NATO forces withdrew as part of the Doha Accord signed on February 29, 2020. 

A 'thoughtless policy'

In early April, Pakistan's National Security Committee (NSC)—a consultative body on security issues-- referred to the ceasefire agreement as a "thoughtless policy," citing the fact that several militants were allowed to return to the country under the guise of confidence-building measures and that several were released from jail. The meeting attended by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, all service commanders, premier spy agencies, ministers, and the chief ministers of all four provinces announced a Plan for a state-wide campaign to eradicate armed groups in Pakistan.

A couple of months before the NSC meeting, Pakistan's defense minister, Khwaja Asif, threatened to bomb terrorist hideouts in Afghanistan alleging that Islamabad had informed the Afghan Taliban of its intentions if Kabul's de facto rulers failed to rein in anti-Pakistan militants, Pakistan will use force to hit at the terrorist sanctuaries in Afghanistan.

Afghan’s reaction to the threat

Even though the two neighbors are still unable to agree on how to deal with them, Afghanistan's acting foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, has planned a trip to Islamabad to discuss strategies for fighting the TTP and its affiliates. Pakistan has already issued a serious warning to Afghanistan that it will attack terrorist hideouts in Afghanistan if Kabul continues to shield them. The Taliban's chief diplomat will likely visit Islamabad in the coming months, though the exact date of his travel is still being determined.

Given the persistent threats from its neighbors, the Afghan government has reportedly prioritized defense, allocating substantial amounts in the budget to boost its defense forces from the current 150,000 to 200,000, as well as to purchase anti-aircraft missile capacity.

Qari Fasihuddin Fitrat, chief of army staff and a Taliban commander from the northern region of Badakhshan, recently gave an interview in which he condemned incursions by foreign drones into Afghan airspace and stated that securing Afghan airspace against drones and other incursions was the primary focus of the Afghan defense forces.

His remark, "Anti-aircraft missiles are a necessity for countries," reflected the widespread interest in cutting-edge defensive technology and its role in protecting national sovereignty and keeping tabs on the skies.

Samarkand Declaration

The Samarkand Declaration expresses the collective fears of the signatories over the continued threat posed by terrorist organizations based in Afghanistan. These organizations include the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Al-Qaeda, the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Jundallah, Jaish al-Adl, Jamaat Ansarullah, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and others.

A joint statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry criticized NATO for the current situation in Afghanistan. The quadripartite meeting stressed the importance of the Afghan government taking concrete steps to ensure the security of foreign institutions and the protection of the legitimate rights of foreign nationals. Participants in the summit agreed that the security situation in Afghanistan was still precarious due to terrorism, and they recommitted themselves to working together with their regional neighbors to combat the threat.

China is worried about the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), while Uzbekistan is concerned about the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Russia and Iran want to take action against the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISIS-KP) and Jaish al-Adl (JA).

US leaked documents

According to a classified Pentagon report that was leaked, it seems that the Islamic State plans assaults across Europe and Asia and engages in "aspirational plotting" against the United States, as Afghanistan has grown into a key coordinating hub for the terrorist organizations. The records show that the terror organization is making explicit efforts to target embassies, churches, business districts, and the FIFA World Cup football competition, which drew more than 2 million fans to Qatar last summer. According to the report, ISIS leaders in Afghanistan were behind nine such plots in December, and by February, there were 15, according to the assessment, which has not been made public before.