In an unexpected and precipitous turn of events, Syria's geopolitical landscape has shifted radically in just a few days. President Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s strongman, has been deposed. The Syrian Arab Army, which had withstood, against all odds, a 12-year war against heavily armed and funded terrorist groups, shockingly crumbled in what seemed like the blink of an eye. Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has taken control of the entire country.

A complete picture of what happened in the days leading up to this cataclysmic geopolitical change, as well as the event itself, may take some time to emerge. However, it is obvious that the new political reality has far-reaching repercussions for the Levant as a whole.

Al-Assad’s Syria was a cornerstone in the Axis of Resistance, and the significant geopolitical shift in Syria has raised concerns about the future of the al-Aqsa Flood, the prospects of reaching a ceasefire in Gaza, and the broader future of the region.

The Syrian Geopolitical Shift and al-Aqsa Flood

The al-Aqsa Flood on October 7, 2023, did not occur in a vacuum. It was the culmination of a series of regional events that had reshaped the Levant's status quo over the course of nearly two decades.

Hezbollah's liberation of South Lebanon in 2000 signalled the start of a new chapter in the Arab struggle against the Zio-American alliance. It was the first uncontested defeat for the Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF) since the creation of the Zionist Entity in 1948.

Following that decisive defeat, the Axis of Resistance (which first emerged in 2003) continued to challenge the IOF’s deterrence in the region. The occupation's unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005, the 2006 assault on Lebanon, and subsequent wars on Gaza—Operation Cast Lead (2008–2009), Operation Pillar of Defence (2012), Operation Protective Edge (2014), and the Sword of Al-Quds (2021), launched by Hamas against "Israel"—all contributed to further eroding the IOF's prestige. During these two decades of relatively low-intensity battles, the Axis of Resistance managed to push the region's balance of power against the interests of the Zio-American alliance, leaving the region in a state of disequilibrium.

The Levant had become a ticking time bomb, awaiting a major military confrontation to resolve the newly established power imbalance, putting the region's contending forces on an unavoidable collision course. This shift in the balance of power was the primary reason for encouraging Hamas' armed wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, to carry out the operation on October 7, 2023.

In other words, the al-Aqsa Flood, aptly described as a political earthquake that shook the entire Levant, was part of a broader chain of interconnected events.

There is broad consensus that the latest events in Syria cannot be viewed in isolation from those of October 7, 2023. However, two conflicting perspectives have arisen on how to interpret the Syrian geopolitical shift in relation to the al-Aqsa Flood:

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1. The first interpretation argues that the al-Aqsa Flood revitalised a popular Syrian movement seeking to overthrow oppression and dictatorship, ultimately leading to the fall of President Bashar al-Assad.

2. The second viewpoint, however, sees what transpired in Syria as a coup against the al-Aqsa Flood itself. From this perspective, the latest events in Syria are a continuation of the ongoing war between the Zio-American alliance and the Axis of Resistance, which began on October 7, 2023.

The flaw in the first interpretation lies in its erroneous connection between the two events. The latest developments in Syria did not originate internally but were instead a meticulously planned incursion orchestrated from outside. This operation was executed by the well-armed, trained, and funded HTS, backed by the imperialistic West and their regional vassal states.

In any case, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani told Al Arabiya TV on 29 December 2024 that HTS’s actions had averted a regional war between the Iraqi Resistance, backed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, and Israelis in Syria. In another statement, he said that Syria would not be used as a launchpad for attacks on "Israel". He further reassured "Israel" that HTS had removed the threat posed by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah fighters near the occupied Golan Heights. Moreover, officials in HTS’s new Syrian government have echoed al-Jolani’s views. These remarks lend credence to the perspective that the recent developments in Syria represent a coup against al-Aqsa Flood.

The IOF succeeded in delivering significant tactical blows to Hezbollah and the al-Qassam Brigades during the ongoing war. However, Netanyahu was unable to translate these achievements into a strategic advantage against the Axis of Resistance until the fall of al-Assad's Syria, prompting him to declare, albeit prematurely, that "Israel" was transforming the face of the 'Middle East'.

Ceasefire in Gaza

The fall of Syria has shifted the dynamics of the ongoing war. Netanyahu believes he can now conclude the war on Gaza with some gains rather than leaving completely empty-handed. In recent weeks, this has encouraged the Israelis to engage in serious ceasefire negotiations in Gaza for the first time, driven by the need to extricate the IOF from the Gazan quagmire—not to mention that the Israeli assault on Gaza has reached a stagnation point.

Nevertheless, Netanyahu continues to push for better terms to his advantage against a steadfast al-Qassam Brigades and other Palestinian Resistance factions who, even after 15 months of fierce battle, are still inflicting daily losses on the IOF and launching rockets that occasionally reach as far as occupied al-Quds.

While this war has demonstrated that no deal is certain until it is fully realised, indications suggest that a ceasefire agreement is closer than ever in this renewed round of negotiations.

Future of the Levant

Ze'ev Jabotinsky (1880–1940), regarded as the spiritual father of the Israeli right wing and founder of the Revisionist Movement, outlined the foundations of the Israeli security doctrine in his seminal two-part thesis, *The Iron Wall* (1923). Drawing on Jabotinsky’s vision, David Ben-Gurion subsequently articulated the Israeli Security Triangle, consisting of deterrence, early warning, and decisive victory—principles that continue to underpin the IOF’s national security strategy to this day.

As previously noted, the effectiveness of the Israeli Security Triangle doctrine has waned over the past two decades, particularly as the Axis of Resistance shifted the regional balance of power against the Zio-American alliance. This decline culminated in al-Aqsa Flood, a turning point that dismantled all three pillars of the Triangle. Hamas was undeterred, the IOF failed to achieve early warning, and a decisive victory remains elusive.

True to its nature, the Zionist entity reverted to its foundational strategies, echoing Jabotinsky’s doctrine in its rawest form. Netanyahu himself recently invoked the principles of the Iron Wall, reminding the world of its enduring relevance.

In its ongoing war on Gaza, the IOF has adopted Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot’s so-called Dahiya doctrine—a strategy of employing “disproportionate force” to inflict great damage and destruction on civilian areas designated by “Israel” as military bases.

By implementing this doctrine against Palestinian civilians, Netanyahu aims to restore the IOF’s eroded deterrence. However, to re-establish Ben-Gurion’s Security Triangle, "Israel", according to Ben-Gurion himself, must completely eliminate the enemy's military forces and equipment—a goal that has yet to be achieved on either the Gaza or Lebanon fronts. Furthermore, despite the tactical Israeli successes against Palestinian Resistance factions and Hezbollah, whether it can effectively deter them, or if these challenges will continue to escalate, remains to be seen.

In conclusion

Given the complexity of the current situation, with myriad new factors in play—such as the uncertainty surrounding Syria's future, the regrouping of Hezbollah, the fragile ceasefire on the Lebanese front, the ongoing war in Gaza, and the unclear policies of President-elect Donald Trump, to name but a few—it would be unrealistic to predict the exact course of events awaiting the region. Nevertheless, amidst this highly fluid state of affairs, one thing is certain: Al-Aqsa Flood has ushered in a new phase in the Levant that has yet to be concluded.