Pakistan and Azerbaijan are believed to be the potential buyers of Turkiye's next-generation, supersonic TF-X fighter, as Turkish President Recep Erdogan displayed the prototype of the stealthy featured jet last month at a ceremony commemorating the Gallipoli battle of World War I.

The twin-engine 21-meter-long jet is comparable in dimensions to the US F-22 and F-35 and looks a lot like the F-22 jet. Ankara had earlier sought a partnership with Islamabad in the manufacturing of the TF-X fifth-generation fighter plane last year, but due to a lack of funding, Pakistan could not oblige.

A similar initiative to produce indigenous fighter jets, Azam, was previously abandoned by Pakistan due to resource constraints. Last year's Pakistani military hardware expo, IDEAS 2022, featured a replica of the Turkish fighter plane, which strongly suggests that Islamabad is waiting for the "single-seat low-observable air superiority" fighter to leave the factory floor in 2029.

After the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, in which Turkiye and Pakistan joined Azerbaijan's side by forming a triangle force under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President Ilham Aliyev, and former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, the defense cooperation between Turkiye, Pakistan, and Azerbaijan increased exponentially, leading to the formation of a close trilateral bloc in the West Caucasus.

Trilateral relationship

As the West Caucasus conflict continues, Ankara, Baku, and Islamabad have taken measures to strengthen their trilateral diplomatic ties. Asad Qaiser, the Speaker of the Pakistani Parliament, and his Azerbaijani and Turkish counterparts, Sahiba Gafarova and Mustafa Sentop, signed the Baku Declaration in July 2021 during a trilateral conference in the Azerbaijani capital.

The joint declaration emphasized the commitment of the three nations to bolster collaboration through cultural connections, reciprocal deference, and burgeoning assurance, with an emphasis on the need to advance peace and stability.

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In September 2021, the armed forces of Azerbaijan, Turkiye, and Pakistan participated in an eight-day exercise titled "Three Brothers 2021." The joint military exercise conducted in Baku, Azerbaijan, illustrated the close defense cooperation between the three countries. The stated goal was to strengthen pre-existing ties between the three nations and explore novel approaches to combating terrorism.

Defense collaboration

"Israel" is Azerbaijan's top defense supplier, with Turkiye coming in second. In 2016 and 2017, the South Caucasus nation paid $5 billion and $137 million, respectively, for Israeli weapons. Until 2018, Hermes 450/900, Orbiter UAVs, Harop loitering bombs, LORA surface-to-surface guided ballistic missiles, Barak-8 air and missile defense systems, reconnaissance satellite technology, and Spike anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) accounted for the lion’s share of Azerbaijan's defense spending.

The military links between Azerbaijan and "Israel" took a quantum leap when the Israeli company, Aeronautics Defense Systems, and the Azerbaijani Azad Systems Co. formed a joint venture to manufacture unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) under the names Aerostar and Orbiter.

Although Turkiye’s Bayraktar TB2 combat UAVs are of interest in Baku, and Ankara delivered them whenever Baku demanded, the two countries have not yet formed a joint company to co-manufacture this military system. The lack of a joint company to co-manufacture the Bayraktar TB2 combat UAVs is not hindering the delivery of the military system to Baku, but it could potentially limit its production capacity. Turkiye has already announced ambitions to build a Bayraktar factory in Ukraine. Building a factory in Ukraine would allow Turkiye to expand its production capabilities and strengthen its position as a leading producer of unmanned aerial vehicles.

Conversely, Turkiye commenced the transfer of weapons to Azerbaijan in a significant manner in 2019. As reported by the media, Turkiye provided Azerbaijan with military equipment amounting to $20.7 million during the initial nine months of 2019. In the subsequent year, Azerbaijan procured firearms worth $123 million from Turkiye. The predominant acquisitions made by Baku encompassed multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), ammunition, UAVs with a primary focus on Bayraktar TB2s, and miscellaneous items whose nature remains unspecified. It is crucial to bear in mind that, except for certain stationary weapons and UAVs, such as the Israeli Hermes 900 and Turkish Bayraktar TB2's distinct surveillance capabilities, the majority of the weapons that Azerbaijan receives from these two nations do not overlap in terms of functionality. The potential for Turkiye to provide Azerbaijan with ATGMs and other missiles, such as the LORA and Barak-8, remains uncertain.

Turkiye collaboration with Pakistan

Turkiye is currently constructing four corvette vessels for the Pakistan Navy, each measuring 99 meters in length and weighing 2,400 tons. These vessels are designed to achieve a speed of 29 nautical miles per hour. As per the terms of the bilateral agreement, a total of four vessels are to be constructed, with two being built in Istanbul and the remaining two in the port city of Karachi, Pakistan. In August 2021, the inaugural Turkish-manufactured corvette warship, named "Babar," was launched in Istanbul. Subsequently, the second Pakistan Navy Ship (PNS) was unveiled in Karachi in May 2022.

The Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, undertook a two-day visit to Turkiye in November last year, during which he and the Turkish President, Recep Erdogan, collaborated on the inauguration of the corvette warship PNS 'Khyber' for the Pakistan Navy, as part of a joint project. As per Sharif's statement, the fourth vessel is scheduled to arrive in February 2025. The warships were produced by Turkiye for the Pakistan Navy as part of a strategic cooperation initiative between the two nations.

During a media briefing on this occasion, Admiral Amjad Khan Niazi, Chief of the Pakistan Navy, commented on the defense collaboration between the two nations, stating that both armed forces are consistently sharing knowledge and expertise. According to the speaker, the existence of construction and upgradation projects such as the 17,000-ton Fleet Tanker, the PN-MILGEM and Agosta 90B submarines, the Super Mushak trainers, the UAV drones, and other similar initiatives serve as a testament to the robust friendship and military cooperation between the parties involved.

According to geopolitical analysts, the expanding involvement of Turkiye and Pakistan in Azerbaijan and the delivery of advanced military equipment to Baku could have negative effects on regional peace and stability. Moreover, this could potentially upset the military equilibrium in the Western Caucasus. Analysts believe that the sale of sophisticated weapons to Azerbaijan by "Israel" and Turkiye has also prompted skepticism and anger among Azerbaijan's neighbors. especially given the ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia. The distribution of large quantities of weapons could potentially exacerbate the region's tension and hinder efforts to establish peace and tranquility.