Pakistan has formally conveyed to Iran its inability to withstand the pressure exerted by the United States and has requested Tehran suspend its contractual obligation on the completion of the multi-billion-dollar Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline project, citing external factors beyond Islamabad's control.

Dr. Musadik Malik, Pakistan's Minister of State for Petroleum, formally announced in a written address to the National Assembly on Monday that Pakistan has officially served Iran with a notice of Force ‘Majeure and Excusing Event’ under the Gas Sales and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) signed between the two neighborly countries back in 2010 in Ankara.

According to the agreement, every country has to pull up its socks and finish its part of the pipeline by 2014. However, Pakistan dropped the ball on following through with the GSPA, partly because the US was breathing down their necks and partly because they were strapped for cash. In the heat of July 2011, Iran proudly declared that they had put the finishing touches on their section, leaving no stone unturned.

Pakistan eventually gave up on the project

It is abundantly clear from Malik's statement in the lower house that Islamabad has finally decided to abandon the IP gas project as a result of increased pressure from the US. The minister provided clarification that the notice of excusing the event to Tehran has led to the temporary suspension of Pakistan's responsibilities as described in the GSPA. According to him, the advancement of the Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline Project has encountered a setback as a result of the implementation of international sanctions on Iran. He articulated his optimism that, upon the elimination of these sanctions, the project will be promptly commenced, guaranteeing fair treatment for state-owned entities (SOEs) because of these limitations. Given the existing constraints imposed on Iran by the international community, it has been acknowledged that formulating an accurate timeline or schedule for the Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline Project poses significant challenges. In other words, Pakistan has put the project on hold but wants Tehran to leave without objecting to the unilateral withdrawal and seeking damages in arbitration.

Iran reiterated its demand

Pakistan gave Iran the cold shoulder and flat out refused to hold up its end of the pipeline days after Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, who was in Islamabad for an official visit last week, strongly urged Pakistan to finally get their act together and finish the long overdue gas pipeline between the two nations that had been on hold since 2014.

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"We firmly believe that the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline will be a game-changer for our nations, serving our national interests," Amirabdollahian expressed during his visit.

At a press conference with his Pakistani counterpart, the Iranian Minister pulled out all the stops and called for ramping up cooperation in the economy, trade, and tourism under regional mechanisms. He said both parties were all in, determined to ramp up bilateral trade to a whopping $5 billion. The Iranian minister revealed that the two countries are on the same page and have decided to create a one-of-a-kind economic free trade zone right at their shared border.

Bilawal disclosed that Pakistan and Iran have cooked up a five-year trade cooperation plan for 2023–2028. Their grand plan, he said, is to pump up the annual trade volume between the two countries to $5 billion.

On this occasion, Iran and Pakistan were singing from the same hymn sheet when it came to the Ukrainian issue. The Iranian foreign minister has raised the alarm bells, urging the West to put a lid on the weapons flowing into Ukraine. "We've made our stance crystal clear, and we firmly believe that war is not the bee's knees," he said. "We reckon it is a real can of worms that the US and a bunch of Western countries keep pouring fuel on the fire by arming Ukraine," he added. Pakistan's foreign minister, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, strongly believes that the Russian-Ukraine conflict should be settled by sitting at the negotiation table and engaging in fruitful dialogue.

Is the US pulling the plug on the pipeline project?

In late July, General Michael 'Erik' Kurilla, the chief of the US Central Command (USCENTCOM), paid a visit to Pakistan to rub elbows with the top brass, get the lowdown on the security scene, and tighten the bond between USCENTCOM and the Pakistan Armed Forces. This was Kurilla’s second visit to Pakistan in less than seven months. Earlier, he had flown to Islamabad in December last year.

General Kurilla had a powwow at the Army House in Rawalpindi with General Syed Asim Munir, Pakistan's top dog in the army, and a bunch of other big shots in the military. The discussions were all about getting on the same page and building a strong bond between the Pakistani Armed Forces and USCENTCOM. The official handouts revealed that they honed in on counter-terrorism, taking care of military trauma combat casualties, working together on security, helping out during disasters, and lending a hand with humanitarian efforts. A USCENTCOM release says that they explored the ins and outs of how the Pakistani army handles its training management process. The visit was a real eye-opener, with a live-fire assault demonstration that set the stage, a sniper range that hit the bullseye, and the weapon overview, which was like a crash course in firepower.

According to the grapevine, besides the obvious goals of the visits, word on the street is that the US military's true worry was the blossoming trade ties between Iran and Pakistan, which seem to be thumbing their noses at the restrictions set by the Pentagon. The Iran-Pakistan pipeline, which has the potential to kickstart a whirlwind of economic opportunities throughout South Asia, seems to have come under discussion, and the US military is believed to have expressed its strong dislike for moving forward with the project.

Is the IP gas pipeline dead in the water?

The project, which kicked off in 2013, put Pakistan in the hot seat to wrap up pipeline construction on its turf by the end of 2014. But the work hit a snag, rubbing Tehran the wrong way, as they claimed to have already poured $2 billion down the drain on their end of the pipeline.

Back in February this year, Iran gave Pakistan a heads-up that if Islamabad doesn't pull its weight and complete its part of the project by March 2024, they'll be taking this whole shebang to an arbitration tribunal to file a damages suit. Iran is singing the blues, saying they have been left high and dry by Islamabad’s slowpoke ways, resulting in a whopping $18 billion blow to its pockets.

Pakistani officials say that Pakistan knocked on Washington's door earlier this year, seeking a way out of the project to tackle their energy shortages. However, they are still waiting with bated breath for a response. The Iranian pipeline had its sights set on delivering a whopping 750 million cubic feet per day (MMCFD) of gas. However, it faced fierce opposition from the US authorities, who were dead set against it. This was especially true when Pakistan and Iran inked framework agreements and GSPA in 2009 and 2010, causing quite a diplomatic uproar.