The US economy and global markets find themselves in a real pickle with Trump's oscillation
President Trump's aggressive tariff and economic policies have triggered a sharp decline in the US dollar, boosted the Russian ruble, and accelerated global moves toward de-dollarization amid rising market instability.
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The dollar is starting to lose its position as the world's most valuable currency, leaving the space wide open for the ruble's impressive 38% gain, which exceeded the traditional 23% increase in gold (Illustrated by Mahdi Rteil to Al Mayadeen English)
President Trump's tariff and non-tariff economic policies are largely to blame for the dollar's nosedive in the international currency market, while the Russian ruble is surging, registering a 38% increase against the dollar since the beginning of 2025.
The ruble has demonstrated significant resilience, particularly following President Trump's imposition of hefty tariffs on imports from more than 70 nations. This development has allowed the Russian currency to emerge as the top performer, surpassing both the Swedish krona and the Swiss franc.
The present tariff war has caused financial markets to get frightened, which has led to a decline in the integrity and value of the dollar after it lost its status as the world's main trading currency.
No matter how hard the US administration tries, it will not be able to repair the harm to the US economy and goodwill anytime soon. The market mood remains uncertain despite Trump's reversal of many of his previous actions, such as lowering import duties, implying in talks with Beijing that he would rationalize the rising import taxes on Chinese goods, and, most importantly, reversing course on the Powell issue.
Even though President Trump changed his mind and declared that his administration would not seek to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the harm to the economy appears to be irreparable.
Reports indicate that the repercussions of Trump's aggressive and authoritarian actions towards sovereign nations, including his allies, could pose a greater threat to the US economy than the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar in European and Asian markets.
The ruble is riding high while the dollar takes a nosedive.
The dollar is starting to lose its position as the world's most valuable currency, leaving the space wide open for the ruble's impressive 38% gain, which exceeded the traditional 23% increase in gold, which is frequently seen as a secure investment despite volatile price swings. Silver's value has increased by 11% since the start of the year in comparison to the ruble, but because of market instability, it still performs worse than other commodities.
The US dollar has seen a decline of approximately 9% since the start of the year, prompting analysis from various media outlets across the globe to begin analyzing the debilitating impacts of Trump’s measures.
As a consequence of these measures, the Treasury rates have defied investor expectations by staying elevated, even as the stock market undergoes a downturn. According to various analysts, the dollar could face significant challenges if China and Japan decide to sell off their US bonds.
There is a prevailing belief among some that hedge funds are divesting their leveraged bond assets. Analysts and economists interviewed by US media suggest that the ongoing economic uncertainty generated by the White House will drive individuals away from the dollar.
The value of the US dollar saw a slight uptick following Trump's speech on April 22, announcing the administration was not going to replace the Treasury head. This development is viewed positively by the observers of the global reserve currency, which has experienced a 9% decline in value since January against the foreign exchange index.
Does de-dollarization begin waving its magic?
President Trump's economic strategies aim to control the soaring interest rates in the US, which have caused the federal debt to skyrocket, is accelerating the de-dollarization pace worldwide. The current US debt stands at approximately 120% of the total annual economic output, posing a significant challenge for the economy.
The tariff mechanism may not fully address the issue, and the entire process could potentially exacerbate the de-dollarization agenda. It might just spell trouble for the US, potentially knocking it off its pedestal in the economic arena. In a recent conversation with US media, Larry Fink, the prominent figure at BlackRock, expressed concern that if deficits continue to escalate, America may lose its control over digital assets such as Bitcoin.
President Trump, who jumped in with both feet and unleashed a tariff whirlwind shortly after taking the reins, sent shockwaves through the stock and cryptocurrency markets, leaving them reeling. With this move, he is strategically maneuvering to disrupt the de-dollarization movement, and he is not holding back by threatening to impose 100% tariffs on countries seeking to break their ties with the US dollar. The US dollar's DXY index has plummeted, settling at 98.30 today on May 25.
Experts suggest that Trump's tariff threats could have unintended consequences, potentially disrupting the US economy, stock market, and bond market. The looming tariff cloud may prompt countries to explore alternative routes away from the US-based setup. They say that Trump’s trade and foreign policies have already pushed Europe down a road towards less dependence on the US. Their argument appears to suggest a desire to reduce reliance on the US dollar.
What made Trump change his position?
Trump’s remarkable change in demeanor regarding Powell and China followed closely on the heels of a private meeting at the Oval Office with the heads of four major US retail companies. These executives expressed their concerns about the increasing economic consequences of Trump's tariff policy and the uncertainty it has caused in the financial markets.
CNN reports that Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe's executives, who expressed their concerns about supply chain disruptions and their impact on consumers, were invited to the White House as part of a continuous effort to confront Trump about the concrete consequences of his policies.
Trump's tariffs have significantly disrupted the retail sector, placing it under significant pressure. The business leaders sounded the alarm, suggesting that store shelves across America might be “soon bare”, according to two insiders from the meeting, as they painted a grim economic picture that could come into clear view in just a matter of weeks.
Warning from the US Federal Chief
During a recent event organized by the Economic Club of Chicago, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed concerns regarding the significant policy shifts brought about by Trump's tariff measures, noting a lack of contemporary precedent for evaluating their implications.
Powell highlighted the significance of the trade measures, pointing out that the announced tariff increases were substantially greater than expected and were poised to trigger economic repercussions, such as rising inflation and decelerated growth. “We could encounter a difficult situation where our dual-mandate objectives conflict with one another,” he stated.
The latest warnings contribute to rising apprehensions among investors, who are grappling with heightened volatility as the Trump administration fluctuates in its approach to trade policy.
The US stock markets experienced a significant downturn after comments from the Federal Reserve Chair raised serious concerns regarding the tariff measures implemented by President Donald Trump. Powell characterized the tariffs as unparalleled in contemporary history, cautioning that their full effects are still uncertain.