Tokayev’s Presidency and strategic stability in Kazakhstan

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President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev secured a second term as President of Kazakhstan with 81% of the vote out of a population of 19 million. His reelection would have a significant impact on domestic stability given that it came months after severe internal turmoil was witnessed in the form of deadly unrest in January 2022 on rising prices of liquefied natural gas. Discontent over pervasive corruption in government ministries and widespread unemployment and growing inequality also remains in the population. While this reelection for another seven-year term can be considered a massive success for Tokayev, several variables will determine whether his presidency can address Kazakhstan’s structural, economic, and political problems as a precursor for long-term stability.  

It is undoubtedly true that Tokayev outlined a program of political and economic reform in the aftermath of the Bloody January protests of 2022 and balanced Kazakhstan’s foreign policy amid the Ukraine War and US-China rivalry. It is also true that he faced no opposition during the elections in a country as opposition figureheads lacked traction, appeal or coverage. Voter turnout was 69.4% in a snap election widely regarded as a referendum for Tokayev to consolidate his rule. The President did claim, however, that the people of Kazakhstan expressed confidence in his leadership and the had a public mandate to govern the country. This came despite the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe considering the 2022 elections to lack transparency, credibility or competitiveness. 

Western propaganda on Kazakhstan’s electoral process aside, a Tokayev presidency must undertake significant economic and political reforms to prevent it from descending into greater suppression of dissent and centralization of power which will haunt Kazakhstan’s long-term stability. The truth is that legitimacy, credibility, and appeal is at stake. For years, Tokayev played the role of a royal successor where despite winning the elections in 2019 under the shadow of his eventual predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, subsequent fallout ensued and the Nazarbayev clan was purged from positions of power in the government. The ensuing political instability had a negative impact on Kazakhstan’s overall economic situation, and any such moves would reestablish the image of Kazakhstan’s government bureaucracy under Tokayev as being pervasively corrupt nepotistic, and lethargic. That is something that his presidency cannot afford.  

Similarly, the violence in January 2022 was characterized by Tokayev authorizing law enforcement authorities to employ blanket measures, incarcerate and attack extremist cells which proved to be critical for internal security. However, the governmental response cost Kazakhstan $3 billion in January 2022 alone, in an economy where the western region remains disproportionately neglected despite contributing significantly to the state budget. Given that Kazakhstan produces more than 40% of the world’s uranium, prices also soared significantly since the 2022 protests erupted. Kazakhstan has also not been immune to such unrest as in 2011, protests over socioeconomic woes and unpaid dues to oil workers erupted and more than a dozen people were killed. The unwelcoming trend continued in 2018 over protests on Chinese expansion in Kazakhstan and the employment of Chinese workers at the expense of local labor. The challenge lies with the administration to ensure that such episodes are not repeated through meaningful reform.  

Yet an opportunity also exists. As per the World Bank’s ‘ Listening to Kazakhstan’ survey estimates in 2022, there is a reason for both cautious optimism and concern for the Kazakh economy which requires immediate attention from the Tokayev administration. 23% of families in the country were characterized as below the poverty line in August 2022, while respondents remained optimistic of the country’s future outlook. Such positivity is grounded in an improved perception of the government’s response to vulnerable segments of the population such as children and persons with disabilities which have been assisted through policies enabling them to graduate from poverty. These are positive trends that the Tokayev administration can capitalize upon especially considering that much of Kazakhstan’s economic problems are due to exogenous factors such as the war in Ukraine, sanctions against Russia from the West, and the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Inclusivity, however, would remain a sticking point for President Tokayev which is an issue that cannot be sidelined by merely citing a strong public mandate as a justification for securing another seven-year term. It all boils down to the health of the national economy and the ability to address pressing issues that affect millions of Kazakhs such as widespread unemployment and inflation, due to supply-side shocks from the pandemic and the Ukraine War. It is advisable that Tokayev pushes for greater economic reform by adopting legislation that is people-centric and has a trickle-down effect on the local population. Alienating segments of the population will embolden nefarious forces, particularly in the West to call for foreign intervention through fomenting unrest and sponsoring disruptive elements that pursue regime change. 

It is hence, clear that as Tokayev assumes his second seven-year term, he confronts issues which are primarily economic and political in nature. Any repeat of the January 2022 violence would be disastrous for Kazakhstan and the future of political stability in the Central Asia’s largest economy.