United States President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order to “halt foreign aid or assistance” to South Africa, citing a new land expropriation law that he claims is designed to seize property from the country’s white minority, even offering to resettle “Afrikaner refugees escaping government-sponsored race-based discrimination." He later followed up with an announcement that he would be imposing sanctions on Pretoria, accusing the government of President Cyril Ramaphosa of working with Iran “to develop commercial, military and nuclear arrangements.”

However, observers have repeatedly highlighted that South Africa is actually being punished for dragging "Israel" to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), a bold move that has infuriated Washington.

“Trump and the right in the US have been looking for an excuse to attack South Africa ever since we took Israel to the International Court of Justice,” Abahlali baseMjondolo (The Residents of the Shacks), a movement of the poor in South Africa, said in a statement.

“They want South Africa to become a client state of the West, like Kenya or Rwanda. Many white liberals in South Africa make the same demand. AfriForum’s lies about white people being oppressed in South Africa have given Trump the excuse he was looking for to attack South Africa to punish it for standing up for justice for the Palestinian people.”

The outfit says the punishment is not surprising at all as past US administrations, like that of Ronald Reagan, actively supported apartheid in South Africa.

According to Norman Finkelstein, a global authority on "Israel’s" treatment of the Palestinians and one of the most influential political scientists in the world, the US’ "dirty tricks" on South Africa are only starting.

“The essence is to try to undermine the credibility of South Africa as it pursues something really quite unprecedented, namely, this frontal confrontation with ‘Israel’ and the power that stands behind ‘Israel’, the United States,” Finkelstein said.

“So right now, the first step is to dirty South Africa’s reputation by claiming it is carrying on in a discriminatory or racist way against whites. It will get progressively dirtier as the case moves through the ICJ.”

‘We will not be bullied’

Despite the aid cut, sanctions threats, and blackmail, South Africa says it will not drop its genocide case against "Israel" at the ICJ, with President Ramaphosa insisting that South Africa “will not be bullied.” 

This has further enraged Washington, prompting four American congressmen to ask President Trump to revoke South Africa’s access to the US market.

“We urge you to revoke South Africa’s preference benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA),’’ the four Republican congressmen said in their February 11 letter. “South Africa is simply not deserving of duty-free access to the American market,” the letter read.

The AGOA (2000) allows duty-free access to selected products from some 40 African countries to US markets, and South Africa is one of them. 

However, with the relationship having gone sour, the possibility of the country losing this privileged status looms large, prompting worries in some quarters.

However, some analysts say while trade with the US could be vital for South Africa’s economy for now, in the event that its AGOA status is revoked and or a hostile tariff regime is imposed, South Africa is able to weather the storm by looking for alternative markets.

Dr. Lulu White, the CEO of the Elections Management Consulting Agency of Africa, says the notion that South Africa is dependent on AGOA for economic prosperity is deeply flawed. “While AGOA provides some trade benefits, the reality is that South Africa gains far less from AGOA than the United States does,” White said. 

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Her views are corroborated by official data that show that the US relies on more South African goods than South Africa relies on US goods. In 2024, South Africa imported $5.8 billion worth of goods from the US while the US imported $14.7 billion worth of goods from South Africa.

“If the US were to remove AGOA privileges or impose sanctions, South Africa would suffer minimal economic impact, while the US would struggle with disruptions in supply chains for critical minerals and industrial components. The real beneficiaries of AGOA are US businesses that gain cheap access to South African raw materials. The auto industry, for instance, relies on duty-free South African exports, and US mining firms benefit from access to platinum, iron, and steel without high tariffs.”

Dr. White added that the era of US economic dominance in Africa is waning, as the continent pivots toward intra-African trade and BRICS partnerships.

“If AGOA were revoked, the biggest impact would be on automobile exports, but alternative markets in Europe, Asia, and Africa could offset this loss,” Dr. White said. “In previous decades, US sanctions could cripple economies. However, the global landscape has changed. Today, countries like Russia, China, and Iran continue to trade despite US sanctions.”

Mafa Kwanisai Mafa, the chairperson of the Zimbabwe Palestine Solidarity Council, said the intra-African trade route offers South Africa a more reliable and rewarding alternative to the US market.

“Intra-African trade can be good alternative for South Africa, especially through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA),” Mafa said. “Trading more with other African countries can help reduce reliance on US and soften the impact of possible sanctions or losing AGOA benefits. This is an opportunity to work together with other African nations to grow their industries, create jobs and build stronger economies that are less affected by outside threats.”

The AfCFTA agreement of 2018, signed by 54 African Heads of State, seeks to create a single African market of 1.3 billion people with a combined Gross Domestic Product of $3.4 trillion. It hopes to eliminate tariffs on 90 percent of goods traded between member states over ten years.

Despite the threats to its economy, South Africa’s stock markets have remained unfazed, something that analysts find “strange”.

“You would have expected the rand and South African equity and bond markets to take a knock. The opposite happened,” said Dawie Roodt, Chief Economist and Director at Efficient Group.

Afrikaners turn down US refugee offer

Afrikaners, whose purported ill-treatment was the basis of Trump’s attack on South Africa, are turning down Trump’s immigration offer, exposing how the US bases some of its policies on lies and propaganda. 

For example, AfriForum, a local lobby group for Afrikaner interests, which is blamed for selling the “white genocide” propaganda to Trump, says less than one per cent of its 300,000 members have shown any interest in becoming refugees in the US. 

“The majority of Afrikaners won’t want to go. We are thankful for Trump’s effort to help. But in the longer-term, for the survival of the Afrikaners, we need to find solutions locally,” AfriForum chief executive Kallie Kriel said.

The group suggested that there be targeted sanctions against the African National Congress (ANC) party leaders rather than measures that would harm the broader population.

Time to stand with South Africa

“We stand with South Africa. It is unfortunate that the narrative of extremists like AfriForum is carrying the day,” said Mlungisi Dube, a Zimbabwean political analyst. “The hypocrisy of the world is exposed here again. The Jews are free to go and take away land that they haven’t lived in for the last 1000 plus years. That is their ancestral land (so) anyone who came to settle on that land can be chased away, while land taken from our ancestors using racist policies as recent as 1913 and 1939 must be written off in our minds?”

Nicholas Ngqabutho Mabhena, the general secretary of the Zimbabwe Communist Party, says Africans should stand with the African National Congress (ANC) as it comes under attack for resisting US hegemony.

“The ANC is under attack for taking Israel to the International Court of Justice and for contributing in building BRICS as part of ending US global dominance,” said Mabhena, who is also the chairperson of the Zimbabwe Community in South Africa. 

“The threats by the US to impose sanctions and tariffs are meant to weaken the ANC as a liberation movement. Progressive forces in Africa and in the developing world should stand in solidarity with the oldest liberation movement in Africa, the ANC.”

Abahlali baseMjondolo, the movement of the poor in South Africa, said that in the current situation, there is a need for broad united fronts around shared minimum commitments.

“It is necessary for progressive governments, especially in the Global South, to unite around matters of shared principle, such as support for the people of Palestine. This can reduce the risk of individual countries being isolated and punished,” it said.